Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system

Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1–0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model\u27s humidity trends. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean\u27s moderating influence. A numerical experiment where the values of Tdew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14% in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4% by the end of the century. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60%

The Causes of Foehn Warming in the Lee of Mountains

The foehn effect is well known as the warming, drying, and cloud clearance experienced on the lee side of mountain ranges during “flow over” conditions. Foehn flows were first described more than a century ago when two mechanisms for this warming effect were postulated: an isentropic drawdown mechanism, where potentially warmer air from aloft is brought down adiabatically, and a latent heating and precipitation mechanism, where air cools less on ascent—owing to condensation and latent heat release—than on its dry descent on the lee side. Here, for the first time, the direct quantitative contribution of these and other foehn warming mechanisms is shown. The results suggest a new paradigm is required after it is demonstrated that a third mechanism, mechanical mixing of the foehn flow by turbulence, is significant. In fact, depending on the flow dynamics, any of the three warming mechanisms can dominate. A novel Lagrangian heat budget model, back trajectories, high-resolution numerical model output, and aircraft observations are all employed. The study focuses on a unique natural laboratory—one that allows unambiguous quantification of the leeside warming—namely, the Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf. The demonstration that three foehn warming mechanisms are important has ramifications for weather forecasting in mountainous areas and associated hazards such as ice shelf melt and wildfires

Forest Fires Across Italian Regions and Implications for Climate Change: A Panel Data Analysis

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of monthly variations in forest fire frequency and on the size of the area burnt for Italian regions between 2000 and 2011. We employ panel data techniques, which allow capturing the dynamics of fire danger due to changes in past climatic conditions, after accounting for regional fixed effects to control region-specific unobserved and time-invariant factors. Results highlight a significant heterogeneity of the effects of driving factors across the Italian peninsula and weather seasons. Climatic conditions also show lasting effects within the year. Using climate change projections for 2016–2035, we then obtain the projected forest fire frequency and total area burnt across the Italian peninsula for the same period. Climate change is expected to increase the number of forest fires across the whole peninsula, which is more evident for the central part of Italy. Even though most of annual increases in fire events relate to the summer period, intensifications in frequency during autumn become more evident in the southern Italy. We extend finally our analysis to investigate the contribution of socio-economic factors to fire regime and the role of education and the containment of fraudulent activity is also highlighted.</p

Forest landscape ecology and global change: an introduction

Forest landscape ecology examines broad-scale patterns and processes and their interactions in forested systems and informs the management of these ecosystems. Beyond being among the richest and the most complex terrestrial systems, forest landscapes serve society by providing an array of products and services and, if managed properly, can do so sustainably. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the field of forest landscape ecology, including major historical and present topics of research, approaches, scales, and applications, particularly those concerning edges, fragmentation, connectivity, disturbance, and biodiversity. In addition, we discuss causes of change in forest landscapes, particularly land-use and management changes, and the expected structural and functional consequences that may result from these drivers. This chapter is intended to set the context and provide an overview for the remainder of the book and poses a broad set of questions related to forest landscape ecology and global change that need answers

Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19thand 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt

Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt

Fatal inanition in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus): Pathological findings in completely emaciated carcasses

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Accounting for risk in valuing forest carbon offsets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Forests can sequester carbon dioxide, thereby reducing atmospheric concentrations and slowing global warming. In the U.S., forest carbon stocks have increased as a result of regrowth following land abandonment and in-growth due to fire suppression, and they currently sequester approximately 10% of annual US emissions. This ecosystem service is recognized in greenhouse gas protocols and cap-and-trade mechanisms, yet forest carbon is valued equally regardless of forest type, an approach that fails to account for risk of carbon loss from disturbance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we show that incorporating wildfire risk reduces the value of forest carbon depending on the location and condition of the forest. There is a general trend of decreasing risk-scaled forest carbon value moving from the northern toward the southern continental U.S.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Because disturbance is a major ecological factor influencing long-term carbon storage and is often sensitive to human management, carbon trading mechanisms should account for the reduction in value associated with disturbance risk.</p

The structure of quality systems is important to the process and outcome, an empirical study of 386 hospital departments in Sweden

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinicians, nurses, and managers in hospitals are continuously confronted by new technologies and methods that require changes to working practice. Quality systems can help to manage change while maintaining a high quality of care. A new model of quality systems inspired by the works of Donabedian has three factors: structure (resources and administration), process (culture and professional co-operation), and outcome (competence development and goal achievement). The objectives of this study were to analyse whether structure, process, and outcome can be used to describe quality systems, to analyse whether these components are related, and to discuss implications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A questionnaire was developed and sent to a random sample of 600 hospital departments in Sweden. The adjusted response rate was 75%. The data were analysed with confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling in LISREL. This is to our knowledge the first large quantitative study that applies Donabedian's model to quality systems.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The model with relationships between structure, process, and outcome was found to be a reasonable representation of quality systems at hospital departments (p = 0.095, indicating no significant differences between the model and the data set). Structure correlated strongly with process (0.72) and outcome (0.60). Given structure, process also correlated with outcome (0.20).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The model could be used to describe and evaluate single quality systems or to compare different quality systems. It could also be an aid to implement a systematic and evidence-based system for working with quality improvements in hospital departments.</p

Pain in the lumbar, thoracic or cervical regions: do age and gender matter? A population-based study of 34,902 Danish twins 20–71 years of age

Background. It is unclear to what extent spinal pain varies between genders and in relation to age. It was the purpose of this study to describe the self-reported prevalence of 1) pain ever and pain in the past year in each of the three spinal regions, 2) the duration of such pain over the past year, 3) pain radiating from these areas, and 4) pain in one, two or three areas. In addition, 5) to investigate if spinal pain reporting is affected by gender and 6) to see if it increases gradually with increasing age. Method. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2002 on 34,902 twin individuals, aged 20 to 71 years, representative of the general Danish population. Identical questions on pain were asked for the lumbar, thoracic and cervical regions. Results. Low back pain was most common, followed by neck pain with thoracic pain being least common. Pain for at least 30 days in the past year was reported by 12%, 10%, and 4%, respectively. The one-yr prevalence estimates of radiating pain were 22% (leg), 16% (arm), and 5% (chest). Pain in one area only last year was reported by 20%, followed by two (13%) and three areas (8%). Women were always more likely to report pain and they were also more likely to have had pain for longer periods. Lumbar and cervical pain peaked somewhat around the middle years but the curves were flatter for thoracic pain. Similar patterns were noted for radiating pain. Older people did not have pain in a larger number of areas but their pain lasted longer. Conclusion. Pain reported for and from the lumbar and cervical spines was found to be relatively common whereas pain in the thoracic spine and pain radiating into the chest was much less common. Women were, generally, more likely to report pain than men. The prevalence estimates changed surprisingly little over age and were certainly not more common in the oldest groups, although the pain was reported as more long-lasting in the older group