Model evaluation and ensemble modelling of surface-level ozone in Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII

More than ten state-of-the-art regional air quality models have been applied as part of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). These models were run by twenty independent groups in Europe and North America. Standardised modelling outputs over a full year (2006) from each group have been shared on the web-distributed ENSEMBLE system, which allows for statistical and ensemble analyses to be performed by each group. The estimated ground-level ozone mixing ratios from the models are collectively examined in an ensemble fashion and evaluated against a large set of observations from both continents. The scale of the exercise is unprecedented and offers a unique opportunity to investigate methodologies for generating skilful ensembles of regional air quality models outputs. Despite the remarkable progress of ensemble air quality modelling over the past decade, there are still outstanding questions regarding this technique. Among them, what is the best and most beneficial way to build an ensemble of members? And how should the optimum size of the ensemble be determined in order to capture data variability as well as keeping the error low? These questions are addressed here by looking at optimal ensemble size and quality of the members. The analysis carried out is based on systematic minimization of the model error and is important for performing diagnostic/probabilistic model evaluation. It is shown that the most commonly used multi-model approach, namely the average over all available members, can be outperformed by subsets of members optimally selected in terms of bias, error, and correlation. More importantly, this result does not strictly depend on the skill of the individual members, but may require the inclusion of low-ranking skill-score members. A clustering methodology is applied to discern among members and to build a skilful ensemble based on model association and data clustering, which makes no use of priori knowledge of model skill. Results show that, while the methodology needs further refinement, by optimally selecting the cluster distance and association criteria, this approach can be useful for model applications beyond those strictly related to model evaluation, such as air quality forecasting. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Modelling chemistry in the nocturnal boundary layer above tropical rainforest and a generalised effective nocturnal ozone deposition velocity for sub-ppbv NOx conditions

Measurements of atmospheric composition have been made over a remote rainforest landscape. A box model has previously been demonstrated to model the observed daytime chemistry well. However the box model is unable to explain the nocturnal measurements of relatively high [NO] and [O3], but relatively low observed [NO2]. It is shown that a one-dimensional (1-D) column model with simple O3 -NOx chemistry and a simple representation of vertical transport is able to explain the observed nocturnal concentrations and predict the likely vertical profiles of these species in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). Concentrations of tracers carried over from the end of the night can affect the atmospheric chemistry of the following day. To ascertain the anomaly introduced by using the box model to represent the NBL, vertically-averaged NBL concentrations at the end of the night are compared between the 1-D model and the box model. It is found that, under low to medium [NOx] conditions (NOx <1 ppbv), a simple parametrisation can be used to modify the box model deposition velocity of ozone, in order to achieve good agreement between the box and 1-D models for these end-of-night concentrations of NOx and O3. This parametrisation would could also be used in global climate-chemistry models with limited vertical resolution near the surface. Box-model results for the following day differ significantly if this effective nocturnal deposition velocity for ozone is implemented; for instance, there is a 9% increase in the following day’s peak ozone concentration. However under medium to high [NOx] conditions (NOx > 1 ppbv), the effect on the chemistry due to the vertical distribution of the species means no box model can adequately represent chemistry in the NBL without modifying reaction rate constants

Revisiting the Local Scaling Hypothesis in Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence: an Integration of Field and Laboratory Measurements with Large-eddy Simulations

The `local scaling' hypothesis, first introduced by Nieuwstadt two decades ago, describes the turbulence structure of stable boundary layers in a very succinct way and is an integral part of numerous local closure-based numerical weather prediction models. However, the validity of this hypothesis under very stable conditions is a subject of on-going debate. In this work, we attempt to address this controversial issue by performing extensive analyses of turbulence data from several field campaigns, wind-tunnel experiments and large-eddy simulations. Wide range of stabilities, diverse field conditions and a comprehensive set of turbulence statistics make this study distinct

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

© 2016. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Ioannis Kioutsioukis, et al, ‘Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data’, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16(24): 15629-15652, published 20 December 2016, the version of record is available at doi:10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016 Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy and diversity in the ensembles. The skill enhancement was superior using the weighting scheme, but the training period required to acquire representative weights was longer compared to the sub-selecting schemes. Further development of the method is discussed in the conclusion.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Optimality and distortionary lobbying: regulating tobacco consumption

We examine policies directed at regulating tobacco consumption through three types of instruments: (i) an excise tax hindering consumption by increasing the price of cigarettes, (ii) prevention programs helping consumers to make choices that are more time consistent when trading-off the current pleasure from smoking and its future health harms, and (iii) smoking bans directly restricting consumption. First, on normative grounds, we focus on the optimal design of public policies maximizing the economy’s surplus. Second, in a positive perspective, we investigate how the lobbying activities of the tobacco industry, of smokers, and of anti-tobacco organizations may distort government intervention

Hepatic phlebography in liver ailments

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Hepatic vein pressure determination and phlebography in the evaluation of portal hypertension

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The value of angiographic methods in diagnostic assessment of liver damage in portal hypertension

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MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes

Predicting Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Using Pretreatment Diffuse Optical Spectroscopic-Texture Analysis

Purpose: Diffuse optical spectroscopy (DOS) has been demonstrated capable of monitoring response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) patients. In this study, we evaluate texture features of pre-treatment DOS functional maps for predicting LABC response to NAC. Methods: LABC patients (n = 37) underwent DOS-breast imaging before starting neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Breast-tissue parametric maps were constructed and texture analyses were performed based on grey level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) for feature extraction. Ground-truth labels as responders (R) or non-responders (NR) were assigned to patients based on Miller-Payne pathological response criteria. The capability of DOS-textural features computed on volumetric tumour data before the start of treatment (i.e. “pre-treatment”) to predict patient responses to NAC was evaluated using a leave-one-out validation scheme at subject level. Data were analysed using a logistic regression, naïve Bayes, and k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) classifiers. Results: Data indicated that textural characteristics of pre-treatment DOS parametric maps can differentiate between treatment response outcomes. The HbO2-homogeneity resulted in the highest accuracy amongst univariate parameters in predicting response to chemotherapy: sensitivity (%Sn) and specificity (%Sp) were 86.5 and 89.0%, respectively and accuracy was 87.8%. The highest predictors using multivariate (binary) combination features were the Hb-Contrast + HbO2-Homogeneity which resulted in a %Sn/%Sp = 78.0/81.0% and an accuracy of 79.5%. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that pre-treatment tumour DOS-texture features can predict breast cancer response to NAC and potentially guide treatments