Atmospheric transport and chemistry of trace gases in LMDz5B: evaluation and implications for inverse modelling

Representation of atmospheric transport is a major source of error in the estimation of greenhouse gas sources and sinks by inverse modelling. Here we assess the impact on trace gas mole fractions of the new physical parameterizations recently implemented in the atmospheric global climate model LMDz to improve vertical diffusion, mesoscale mixing by thermal plumes in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and deep convection in the troposphere. At the same time, the horizontal and vertical resolution of the model used in the inverse system has been increased. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of these developments on the representation of trace gas transport and chemistry, and to anticipate the implications for inversions of greenhouse gas emissions using such an updated model. Comparison of a one-dimensional version of LMDz with large eddy simulations shows that the thermal scheme simulates shallow convective tracer transport in the PBL over land very efficiently, and much better than previous versions of the model. This result is confirmed in three-dimensional simulations, by a much improved reproduction of the radon-222 diurnal cycle. However, the enhanced dynamics of tracer concentrations induces a stronger sensitivity of the new LMDz configuration to external meteorological forcings. At larger scales, the inter-hemispheric exchange is slightly slower when using the new version of the model, bringing them closer to observations. The increase in the vertical resolution (from 19 to 39 layers) significantly improves the representation of stratosphere/troposphere exchange. Furthermore, changes in atmospheric thermodynamic variables, such as temperature, due to changes in the PBL mixing modify chemical reaction rates, which perturb chemical equilibriums of reactive trace gases. One implication of LMDz model developments for future inversions of greenhouse gas emissions is the ability of the updated system to assimilate a larger amount of high-frequency data sampled at high-variability stations. Others implications are discussed at the end of the paper

Cloud condensation nuclei as a modulator of ice processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds

We propose that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are important for modulating ice formation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, through modification of the droplet size distribution. Aircraft observations from the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) study in northern Alaska in April 2008 allow for identification and characterization of both aerosol and trace gas pollutants, which are then compared with cloud microphysical properties. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the concentration of precipitating ice particles (>400 μm) is correlated with the concentration of large droplets (>30 μm). We are further able to link the observed microphysical conditions to aerosol pollution, originating mainly from long range transport of biomass burning emissions. The case studies demonstrate that polluted mixed-phase clouds have narrower droplet size distributions and contain 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer precipitating ice particles than clean clouds at the same temperature. This suggests an aerosol indirect effect leading to greater cloud lifetime, greater cloud emissivity, and reduced precipitation. This result is opposite to the glaciation indirect effect, whereby polluted clouds are expected to precipitate more readily due to an increase in the concentration of particles acting as ice nuclei

Worldwide data sets constrain the water vapor uptake coefficient in cloud formation

Cloud droplet formation depends on the condensation of water vapor on ambient aerosols, the rate of which is strongly affected by the kinetics of water uptake as expressed by the condensation (or mass accommodation) coefficient, α_c. Estimates of α_c for droplet growth from activation of ambient particles vary considerably and represent a critical source of uncertainty in estimates of global cloud droplet distributions and the aerosol indirect forcing of climate. We present an analysis of 10 globally relevant data sets of cloud condensation nuclei to constrain the value of αc for ambient aerosol. We find that rapid activation kinetics (α_c > 0.1) is uniformly prevalent. This finding resolves a long-standing issue in cloud physics, as the uncertainty in water vapor accommodation on droplets is considerably less than previously thought

Soot reference materials for instrument calibration and intercomparisons: A workshop summary with recommendations

Soot, which is produced from biomass burning and the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass fuels, has been linked to regional and global climate change and to negative health problems. Scientists measure the properties of soot using a variety of methods in order to quantify source emissions and understand its atmospheric chemistry, reactivity under emission conditions, interaction with solar radiation, influence on clouds, and health impacts. A major obstacle currently limiting progress is the absence of established standards or reference materials for calibrating the many instruments used to measure the various properties of soot. The current state of availability and practicability of soot standard reference materials (SRMs) was reviewed by a group of 50 international experts during a workshop in June of 2011. The workshop was convened to summarize the current knowledge on soot measurement techniques, identify the measurement uncertainties and limitations related to the lack of soot SRMs, and identify attributes of SRMs that, if developed, would reduce measurement uncertainties. The workshop established that suitable SRMs are available for calibrating some, but not all, measurement methods. The community of users of the single-particle soot-photometer (SP2), an instrument using laser-induced incandescence, identified a suitable SRM, fullerene soot, but users of instruments that measure light absorption by soot collected on filters did not. Similarly, those who use thermal optical analysis (TOA) to analyze the organic and elemental carbon components of soot were not satisfied with current SRMs. The workshop, and subsequent, interactive discussions, produced a number of recommendations for the development of new SRMs, and their implementation, that would be suitable for the different soot measurement methods

Characteristics, sources, and transport of aerosols measured in spring 2008 during the aerosol, radiation, and cloud processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) Project

We present an overview of the background, scientific goals, and execution of the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project of April 2008. We then summarize airborne measurements, made in the troposphere of the Alaskan Arctic, of aerosol particle size distributions, composition, and optical properties and discuss the sources and transport of the aerosols. The aerosol data were grouped into four categories based on gas-phase composition. First, the background troposphere contained a relatively diffuse, sulfate-rich aerosol extending from the top of the sea-ice inversion layer to 7.4 km altitude. Second, a region of depleted (relative to the background) aerosol was present within the surface inversion layer over sea-ice. Third, layers of dense, organic-rich smoke from open biomass fires in southern Russia and southeastern Siberia were frequently encountered at all altitudes from the top of the inversion layer to 7.1 km. Finally, some aerosol layers were dominated by components originating from fossil fuel combustion. <br></br> Of these four categories measured during ARCPAC, the diffuse background aerosol was most similar to the average springtime aerosol properties observed at a long-term monitoring site at Barrow, Alaska. The biomass burning (BB) and fossil fuel layers were present above the sea-ice inversion layer and did not reach the sea-ice surface during the course of the ARCPAC measurements. The BB aerosol layers were highly scattering and were moderately hygroscopic. On average, the layers produced a noontime net heating of ~0.1 K day<sup>−1</sup> between 3 and 7 km and a slight cooling at the surface. The ratios of particle mass to carbon monoxide (CO) in the BB plumes, which had been transported over distances >5000 km, were comparable to the high end of literature values derived from previous measurements in wildfire smoke. These ratios suggest minimal precipitation scavenging and removal of the BB particles between the time they were emitted and the time they were observed in dense layers above the sea-ice inversion layer

Sarilumab in patients admitted to hospital with severe or critical COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

Background: Elevated proinflammatory cytokines are associated with greater COVID-19 severity. We aimed to assess safety and efficacy of sarilumab, an interleukin-6 receptor inhibitor, in patients with severe (requiring supplemental oxygen by nasal cannula or face mask) or critical (requiring greater supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal support) COVID-19. Methods: We did a 60-day, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multinational phase 3 trial at 45 hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Russia, and Spain. We included adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and pneumonia, who required oxygen supplementation or intensive care. Patients were randomly assigned (2:2:1 with permuted blocks of five) to receive intravenous sarilumab 400 mg, sarilumab 200 mg, or placebo. Patients, care providers, outcome assessors, and investigators remained masked to assigned intervention throughout the course of the study. The primary endpoint was time to clinical improvement of two or more points (seven point scale ranging from 1 [death] to 7 [discharged from hospital]) in the modified intention-to-treat population. The key secondary endpoint was proportion of patients alive at day 29. Safety outcomes included adverse events and laboratory assessments. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04327388; EudraCT, 2020-001162-12; and WHO, U1111-1249-6021. Findings: Between March 28 and July 3, 2020, of 431 patients who were screened, 420 patients were randomly assigned and 416 received placebo (n=84 [20%]), sarilumab 200 mg (n=159 [38%]), or sarilumab 400 mg (n=173 [42%]). At day 29, no significant differences were seen in median time to an improvement of two or more points between placebo (12·0 days [95% CI 9·0 to 15·0]) and sarilumab 200 mg (10·0 days [9·0 to 12·0]; hazard ratio [HR] 1·03 [95% CI 0·75 to 1·40]; log-rank p=0·96) or sarilumab 400 mg (10·0 days [9·0 to 13·0]; HR 1·14 [95% CI 0·84 to 1·54]; log-rank p=0·34), or in proportions of patients alive (77 [92%] of 84 patients in the placebo group; 143 [90%] of 159 patients in the sarilumab 200 mg group; difference −1·7 [−9·3 to 5·8]; p=0·63 vs placebo; and 159 [92%] of 173 patients in the sarilumab 400 mg group; difference 0·2 [−6·9 to 7·4]; p=0·85 vs placebo). At day 29, there were numerical, non-significant survival differences between sarilumab 400 mg (88%) and placebo (79%; difference +8·9% [95% CI −7·7 to 25·5]; p=0·25) for patients who had critical disease. No unexpected safety signals were seen. The rates of treatment-emergent adverse events were 65% (55 of 84) in the placebo group, 65% (103 of 159) in the sarilumab 200 mg group, and 70% (121 of 173) in the sarilumab 400 mg group, and of those leading to death 11% (nine of 84) were in the placebo group, 11% (17 of 159) were in the sarilumab 200 mg group, and 10% (18 of 173) were in the sarilumab 400 mg group. Interpretation: This trial did not show efficacy of sarilumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and receiving supplemental oxygen. Adequately powered trials of targeted immunomodulatory therapies assessing survival as a primary endpoint are suggested in patients with critical COVID-19. Funding: Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes

Fragmentation and logical omniscience

It would be good to have a Bayesian decision theory that assesses our decisions and thinking according to everyday standards of rationality — standards that do not require logical omniscience (Garber 1983, Hacking 1967). To that end we develop a “fragmented” decision theory in which a single state of mind is represented by a family of credence functions, each associated with a distinct choice condition (Lewis 1982, Stalnaker 1984). The theory imposes a local coherence assumption guaranteeing that as an agent's attention shifts, successive batches of "obvious" logical information become available to her. A rule of expected utility maximization can then be applied to the decision of what to attend to next during a train of thought. On the resulting theory, rationality requires ordinary agents to be logically competent and to often engage in trains of thought that increase the unification of their states of mind. But rationality does not require ordinary agents to be logically omniscient