Geoclimatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics related to dengue outbreaks in Southeastern Brazil: an annual spatial and spatiotemporal risk model over a 12-year period

Dengue fever is re-emerging worldwide, however the reasons of this new emergence are not fully understood. Our goal was to report the incidence of dengue in one of the most populous States of Brazil, and to assess the high-risk areas using a spatial and spatio-temporal annual models including geoclimatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. An ecological study with both, a spatial and a temporal component was carried out in Sao Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil, between January 1st, 2007 and December 31st, 2019. Crude and Bayesian empirical rates of dengue cases following by Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIR) were calculated considering the municipalities as the analytical units and using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation in a Bayesian context. A total of 2,027,142 cases of dengue were reported during the studied period. The spatial model allocated the municipalities in four groups according to the SIR values: (I) SIR<0.8; (II) SIR 0.8<1.2; (III) SIR 1.2<2.0 and SIR>2.0 identified the municipalities with higher risk for dengue outbreaks. “Hot spots” are shown in the thematic maps. Significant correlations between SIR and two climate variables, two demographic variables and one socioeconomical variable were found. No significant correlations were found in the spatio-temporal model. The incidence of dengue exhibited an inconstant and unpredictable variation every year. The highest rates of dengue are concentrated in geographical clusters with lower surface pressure, rainfall and altitude, but also in municipalities with higher degree of urbanization and better socioeconomic conditions. Nevertheless, annual consolidated variations in climatic features do not influence in the epidemic yearly pattern of dengue in southeastern Brazil

Comparative assessment of mortality risk factors between admission and follow-up models among patients hospitalized with COVID-19

Objectives: This study aimed to compare differences in mortality risk factors between admission andfollow-up incorporated models.Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 524 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection admitted to atertiary medical center in São Paulo, Brazil from 13 March to 30 April 2020. Data were collected onadmission, and the third, eighth and fourteenth days of hospitalization. The hazard ratio (HR) wascalculated and 28-day in-hospital mortality risk factors were compared between admission and follow-up models using a time-dependent Cox regression model.Results: Of 524 patients, 50.4% needed mechanical ventilation. The 28-day mortality rate was 32.8%.Compared with follow-up, admission models under-estimated the mortality HR for peripheral oxygensaturation 100 bpm (1.19 versus 2.04), respiratory rate >24/min (1.01versus 1.82) and mechanical ventilation (1.92 versus 12.93). Low oxygen saturation, higher oxygensupport and more biomarkers–including lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and urea remained associated with mortality after adjustment for clinical factorsat follow-up compared with only urea and oxygen support at admission.Conclusions: The inclusion of follow-up measurements changed mortality hazards of clinical signs andbiomarkers. Low oxygen saturation, higher oxygen support, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein,neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and urea could help with prognosis of patients during follow-up

Replication Fork Stability Confers Chemoresistance in BRCA-deficient Cells

Brca1- and Brca2-deficient cells have reduced capacity to repair DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) by homologous recombination (HR) and consequently are hypersensitive to DNA damaging agents, including cisplatin and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. Here we show that loss of the MLL3/4 complex protein, PTIP, protects Brca1/2-deficient cells from DNA damage and rescues the lethality of Brca2-deficient embryonic stem cells. However, PTIP deficiency does not restore HR activity at DSBs. Instead, its absence inhibits the recruitment of the MRE11 nuclease to stalled replication forks, which in turn protects nascent DNA strands from extensive degradation. More generally, acquisition of PARPi and cisplatin resistance is associated with replication fork (RF) protection in Brca2-deficient tumor cells that do not develop Brca2 reversion mutations. Disruption of multiple proteins, including PARP1 and CHD4, leads to the same end point of RF protection, highlighting the complexities by which tumor cells evade chemotherapeutic interventions and acquire drug resistance

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km2 of land (28.1%of the total study area).Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forestmanagement, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-costmechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services. © 2016 The Authors

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests

Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes. Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved

Shared Genetic Risk Factors of Intracranial, Abdominal, and Thoracic Aneurysms

Background: Intracranial aneurysms (IAs), abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), and thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAAs) all have a familial predisposition. Given that aneurysm types are known to co‐occur, we hypothesized that there may be shared genetic risk factors for IAs, AAAs, and TAAs. Methods and Results: We performed a mega‐analysis of 1000 Genomes Project‐imputed genome‐wide association study (GWAS) data of 4 previously published aneurysm cohorts: 2 IA cohorts (in total 1516 cases, 4305 controls), 1 AAA cohort (818 cases, 3004 controls), and 1 TAA cohort (760 cases, 2212 controls), and observed associations of 4 known IA, AAA, and/or TAA risk loci (9p21, 18q11, 15q21, and 2q33) with consistent effect directions in all 4 cohorts. We calculated polygenic scores based on IA‐, AAA‐, and TAA‐associated SNPs and tested these scores for association to case‐control status in the other aneurysm cohorts; this revealed no shared polygenic effects. Similarly, linkage disequilibrium–score regression analyses did not show significant correlations between any pair of aneurysm subtypes. Last, we evaluated the evidence for 14 previously published aneurysm risk single‐nucleotide polymorphisms through collaboration in extended aneurysm cohorts, with a total of 6548 cases and 16 843 controls (IA) and 4391 cases and 37 904 controls (AAA), and found nominally significant associations for IA risk locus 18q11 near RBBP8 to AAA (odds ratio [OR]=1.11; P=4.1×10−5) and for TAA risk locus 15q21 near FBN1 to AAA (OR=1.07; P=1.1×10−3). Conclusions: Although there was no evidence for polygenic overlap between IAs, AAAs, and TAAs, we found nominally significant effects of two established risk loci for IAs and TAAs in AAAs. These two loci will require further replication

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030