Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science

Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. We use the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. We assume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: We find that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries—that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. We suggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals—as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability

Reply to: New Meta- and Mega-analyses of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Schizophrenia: Do They Really Increase Our Knowledge About the Nature of the Disease Process?

This work was supported by National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering Grant No. U54EB020403 (to the ENIGMA consortium)

Innovations for Sustainability: Pathways to an efficient and post-pandemic future

3rd Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiativ

Cortical brain abnormalities in 4474 individuals with schizophrenia and 5098 control subjects via the enhancing neuro Imaging genetics through meta analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium

BACKGROUND: The profile of cortical neuroanatomical abnormalities in schizophrenia is not fully understood, despite hundreds of published structural brain imaging studies. This study presents the first meta-analysis of cortical thickness and surface area abnormalities in schizophrenia conducted by the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta Analysis) Schizophrenia Working Group. METHODS: The study included data from 4474 individuals with schizophrenia (mean age, 32.3 years; range, 11-78 years; 66% male) and 5098 healthy volunteers (mean age, 32.8 years; range, 10-87 years; 53% male) assessed with standardized methods at 39 centers worldwide. RESULTS: Compared with healthy volunteers, individuals with schizophrenia have widespread thinner cortex (left/right hemisphere: Cohen's d = -0.530/-0.516) and smaller surface area (left/right hemisphere: Cohen's d = -0.251/-0.254), with the largest effect sizes for both in frontal and temporal lobe regions. Regional group differences in cortical thickness remained significant when statistically controlling for global cortical thickness, suggesting regional specificity. In contrast, effects for cortical surface area appear global. Case-control, negative, cortical thickness effect sizes were two to three times larger in individuals receiving antipsychotic medication relative to unmedicated individuals. Negative correlations between age and bilateral temporal pole thickness were stronger in individuals with schizophrenia than in healthy volunteers. Regional cortical thickness showed significant negative correlations with normalized medication dose, symptom severity, and duration of illness and positive correlations with age at onset. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that the ENIGMA meta-analysis approach can achieve robust findings in clinical neuroscience studies; also, medication effects should be taken into account in future genetic association studies of cortical thickness in schizophrenia

Reproducibility in the absence of selective reporting : An illustration from large-scale brain asymmetry research

Altres ajuts: Max Planck Society (Germany).The problem of poor reproducibility of scientific findings has received much attention over recent years, in a variety of fields including psychology and neuroscience. The problem has been partly attributed to publication bias and unwanted practices such as p-hacking. Low statistical power in individual studies is also understood to be an important factor. In a recent multisite collaborative study, we mapped brain anatomical left-right asymmetries for regional measures of surface area and cortical thickness, in 99 MRI datasets from around the world, for a total of over 17,000 participants. In the present study, we revisited these hemispheric effects from the perspective of reproducibility. Within each dataset, we considered that an effect had been reproduced when it matched the meta-analytic effect from the 98 other datasets, in terms of effect direction and significance threshold. In this sense, the results within each dataset were viewed as coming from separate studies in an "ideal publishing environment," that is, free from selective reporting and p hacking. We found an average reproducibility rate of 63.2% (SD = 22.9%, min = 22.2%, max = 97.0%). As expected, reproducibility was higher for larger effects and in larger datasets. Reproducibility was not obviously related to the age of participants, scanner field strength, FreeSurfer software version, cortical regional measurement reliability, or regional size. These findings constitute an empirical illustration of reproducibility in the absence of publication bias or p hacking, when assessing realistic biological effects in heterogeneous neuroscience data, and given typically-used sample sizes

L'Agenda 2030 indivisible. La durabilité au prisme de l'analyse systémique

In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and implementation? In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines: (a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more inclusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda.This thesis comprises four papers. Paper I explores the interdependence of different 2030 Agenda goals through the use of a national-level system dynamics model applied to Tanzania to analyse anticipated social and economic impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Model simulations indicate that, in addition to building more sustainable energy systems, the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of schooling as well as access to electricity. Furthermore, progress in these dimensions leads to broader system-wide impacts. This indicates that identifying policy synergies across sectors before policies are implemented can provide important insights for achieving the 2030 Agenda. In Paper II, we present a method for identifying policy synergies and assessing them quantitatively. The developed synergy approach is then operationalised over three case studies representing Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi and Senegal. In order to further explore the synergies and interdependencies between different human wellbeing goals, Paper III studies data on the achievement of SDGs 1- 7 in seven world regions and the world as a whole. In an analysis of the correlations between these SDGs and GDP per person, we find uniform patterns for all regions above a certain income threshold. This indicates that there is an income level at which human needs and capabilities are achieved, consistent with the Easterlin’s paradox of life satisfaction. In order to address the importance of including diverse perspectives, Paper IV investigates how the pursuit of the 2030 Agenda can be grounded in local worldviews. The paper introduces a stakeholder-based approach grounded in systems thinking for visioning and exploring sustainable development pathways to meet the SDGs. The approach focuses on identifying divergences and convergences across scales and worldviews about how to implement the Agenda. The paper presents a case study, the 2018 African Dialogue on the World in 2050, which deliberated on how transforming the agricultural and food systems in African regions could lead to achieving the SDGs in an integrated manner, comparing local perspectives to global sustainability trajectories. (...)En 2015, les Nations Unies ont adopté l’Agenda 2030 avec 17 Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) pour amener le monde sur une trajectoire durable. En conférant aux ODD le caractère indivisible, l'Agenda met l'accent sur l'interdépendance des préoccupations sociales et écologiques. Mais que signifie cette interdépendance et comment gérer cette indivisibilité à la fois dans la recherche scientifique et dans l’implémentation des Objectifs ?Dans cette thèse, nous avons cherché à comprendre comment les modèles et les méthodes participatives se revendiquant de la pensée systémique pouvaient être utilisés pour faciliter la compréhension et la réalisation de l'Agenda 2030. La thèse entend répondre à trois interrogations : (a) comment la modélisation des systèmes dynamiques peut être utilisée pour représenter des Objectifs intégrés et leurs synergies à plusieurs niveaux ? ; (b) comment le bien-être humain peut être intégré de manière plus inclusif dans la modélisation systémique ?; et (c) comment les approches systémiques peuvent aider à combler l’écart entre les aspirations locales et les Objectifs mondiaux de durabilité ? Notamment via l’incorporation de valeurs et de visions du monde plurielles. Cette thèse comprend quatre articles. L’Article I explore l'interdépendance de différents Objectifs de l'Agenda 2030 à l’aide d'un modèle de dynamiques de système, developpé au niveau national et appliqué à la Tanzanie. Il s’agit d’anticiper l’impact sur la société et l’économie d'investissements considérables dans la production d’énergie photovoltaïque. Les simulations du modèle indiquent qu'en plus de construire des systèmes énergétiques plus durables, les investissements dans le photovoltaïque affectent positivement l'espérance de vie, la durée de scolarisation ainsi que l'accès à l'électricité. De plus, les progrès dans ces dimensions conduisent à des impacts plus vastes à l'échelle du système. Ces résultats suggèrent qu'identifier les synergies possibles entre des politiques dans différents secteurs, avant même la mise en œuvre de ces politiques, peut fournir des renseignements précieux afin d’atteindre les Objectifs de l’Agenda 2030. Dans l’Article II, nous présentons une méthode visant à identifier les synergies entre différentes politiques, puis à les évaluer quantitativement. Cette méthode est appliquée à trois études de cas : la Côte d’Ivoire, le Malawi et le Sénégal. Afin d'explorer plus avant les synergies et les interdépendances entre les différents Objectifs liés au bien-être humain, l’Article III étudie des données sur le degré d’avancement des ODD 1 à 7, dans sept régions du monde séparément, et dans le monde dans son ensemble. L’analyse des corrélations entre ces ODD et le PIB par habitant montre certaines constantes qui sont valables pour toutes les régions au-dessus d'un certain seuil de revenu. Cela suggère qu’il existe un niveau de revenu à partir duquel les besoins et les capabilités des humains sont satisfaits, conformément au paradoxe d’Easterlin. Afin de prendre en compte l'importance d'inclure diverses perspectives, l’Article IV examine comment la poursuite de l'Agenda 2030 peut être ancrée dans des visions du monde locales. L’article introduit une approche basée sur la participation des parties prenantes, qui permet de visualiser et d’explorer différentes trajectoires de développement durable dans le but d’atteindre les ODD. L’article présente une étude de cas, le Dialogue Africain sur le monde en 2050, qui en 2018 a suscité des délibérations sur les orientations futures des systèmes alimentaires dans différentes régions africaines et les a mises en relation avec les trajectoires mondiales en matière de durabilité. L’article conclut que les approches participatives qui intègrent la pensée systémique constituent un moyen prometteur de lier les aspirations locales aux Objectifs mondiaux de l'Agenda 2030

The Paradox of Redistribution: A System Dynamics Translation

Inequality has received renewed attention in the public as well as in the academic debate. According to one theory, the development of redistribution and inequality reflects the institutional design of the social insurances. Countries with social insurance institutions that target the poor and low-income earners arrive, over time, in smaller redistributive budgets and higher levels of poverty than countries with social insurance institutions with lower levels of low-income-targeting. This result has been explained by the fact that inequality, and poverty rates, are more dependent on the total size of the redistributive budget than to the extent that the institutions target the poor. There is a paradox of redistribution. In this paper, the paradox of redistribution is translated to system dynamics and the coherence of the theory is analyzed by a system dynamics model. The system dynamics translation results in a model that reproduces the reference modes. The result suggests that system dynamics ought to have a profound role in the discussions on inequality, both as a tool that may be used to explain and discuss concepts and in suggesting structural explanations with an endogenous point of view

The Paradox of Redistribution: A System Dynamics Translation

Inequality has received renewed attention in the public as well as in the academic debate. According to one theory, the development of redistribution and inequality reflects the institutional design of the social insurances. Countries with social insurance institutions that target the poor and low-income earners arrive, over time, in smaller redistributive budgets and higher levels of poverty than countries with social insurance institutions with lower levels of low-income-targeting. This result has been explained by the fact that inequality, and poverty rates, are more dependent on the total size of the redistributive budget than to the extent that the institutions target the poor. There is a paradox of redistribution. In this paper, the paradox of redistribution is translated to system dynamics and the coherence of the theory is analyzed by a system dynamics model. The system dynamics translation results in a model that reproduces the reference modes. The result suggests that system dynamics ought to have a profound role in the discussions on inequality, both as a tool that may be used to explain and discuss concepts and in suggesting structural explanations with an endogenous point of view

The Indivisible 2030 Agenda : Systems analysis for sustainability

In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and implementation? In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines: (a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more inclusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda