The structure of the climate debate

First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to climate policy have attacked the weaknesses in climate research. The climate debate is convoluted and polarized as a result, and climate policy complex. Climate policy should become easier and more rational as the Paris Agreement has shifted climate policy back towards national governments. Changing political priorities, austerity, and a maturing bureaucracy should lead to a more constructive climate debate

Keeping it in the ground? Assessing global governance for fossil-fuel supply reduction

Restricting the international supply of fossil fuels is increasingly acknowledged as a necessary part of achieving long-term global temperature goals. However, the barriers to imposing such restrictions are immense. Issues of economic stability, equity, and associated geo-political tensions, are particularly acute. In theory, a managed decline can be facilitated by international cooperation. In practice, however, despite some apparent rhetorical commitments, adequate institutional responses have not been forthcoming. This paper highlights potentially relevant institutions, and assesses their combined contribution to fulfilling a set of governance functions relevant to decarbonisation in this case. The analysis finds that the governance challenges associated with deciding what fossil fuel carbon should be designated ‘unburnable’, and managing the associated equity-related, geo-political conflicts, are far from being fully recognised. Potential institutional reforms, by which governance gaps could be narrowed, are identified. These highlight the further potential of the G20, UNFCCC and WTO in particular

Baissons la chaleur : phenomenes climatiques extremes, impacts regionaux et plaidoyer en faveur de I'adaptation - resume analytique Bajemos la temperature : fenomenos climaticos extremos, impactos regionales y capacidad de adaptacion - resumen ejecutivo Bericht : Warum eine vier grad warmere welt verhindert werden muss - zusammenfassung

A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics. This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. Under 4°C warming, rural populations would face mounting pressures from sea-level rise, increased tropical cyclone intensity, storm surges, saltwater intrusions, and loss of marine ecosystem services. In South Asia, the potential sudden onset of disturbances to the monsoon system and rising peak temperatures would put water and food resources at severe risk. Well before 2°C warming occurs, substantial reductions in the frequency of low snow years is projected to cause substantial reductions in dry season flow, threatening agriculture. Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is closing rapidly. Urgent action is also needed to build resilience to a rapidly warming world that will pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health.Este informe, que es la continuación del titulado Bajemos la temperatura: Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4º C más cálido, publicado en noviembre de 2012, se describe una hipótesis alarmante para los próximos años: si la temperatura de la Tierra aumenta en 2ºC —lo que puede ocurrir en el término de 20 a 30 años— ese fenómeno causará situaciones generalizadas de escasez de alimentos, olas de calor sin precedentes y ciclones más intensos. Este análisis científico nos ofrece una mirada más pormenorizada del hecho de que los impactos negativos del cambio climático que ya está en marcha podrían crear condiciones devastadoras, en especial para quienes menos posibilidades tengan de adaptarse a ellos. Los sectores más pobres podrían ser los más perjudicados. Centrando la atención en las regiones de África al sur del Sahara, Asia sudoriental y Asia meridional, examina con mayor detalle los impactos que probablemente experimentarán las poblaciones actualmente afectadas ante hipótesis de calentamiento de 2ºC y 4ºC en esferas críticas, como las de la producción agrícola, los recursos hídricos, los ecosistemas costeros y las ciudades. Por ello hace un llamamiento en favor de la acción y subraya el hecho que el cambio climático constituye una amenaza fundamental para el desarrollo económico y la lucha contra la pobreza. Esta publicación es un resumen del informe completo.Le présent rapport se penche sur les risques que fait peser le changement climatique sur le développement de l’Afrique subsaharienne, de l’Asie du Sud-Est et de l’Asie du Sud. S’inspirant du rapport de 2012 intitulé « Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided », cette nouvelle analyse scientifique examine les impacts probables des conditions climatiques actuelles et d’une élévation de 2 ou de 4 °C de la température de la planète sur la production agricole, les ressources hydriques et la vulnérabilité des côtes pour les populations touchées. Il constate que de nombreux effets mesurables sur le climat et le développement s’observent déjà dans certaines régions et que dans certains cas, les vagues de chaleur extrême, l’élévation du niveau de la mer, des tempêtes de plus grande intensité, des sécheresses et des inondations menacent les populations les plus pauvres du monde. Des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes risquent d’enfoncer des ménages dans la pauvreté. Les pointes de températures extrêmement chaudes risquent de nuire à la production du riz, du blé, du maïs et d’autres cultures importantes, et de menacer ainsi la sécurité alimentaire des populations. Les efforts de promotion de la croissance économique et de lutte contre la pauvreté et les inégalités se heurteront ainsi à des obstacles grandissants sous l’effet des changements climatiques à venir. Des mesures immédiates sont requises pour aider les pays à s’adapter à la menace que fait déjà peser sur eux le réchauffement actuel de 0,8 °C, mais il est toujours possible, en menant des actions ambitieuses à l’échelle mondiale, de réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et d’éviter ainsi les pires impacts prévisibles en maintenant le réchauffement planétaire en deçà de 2 °C

Litigation in the Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement

The fossil fuel divestment movement has been described as the fastest-growing disinvestment movement in history, and in recent years it has continued to expand. Despite its growth, however, the movement has made little use of legal action, instead utilizing tactics of public pressure and persuasion, and the future role of litigation in the movement is unclear. To consider litigation's potential role in the movement and the challenges it may face, I examine the first and only case of litigation in the fossil fuel divestment movement thus far: Harvard Climate Justice Coalition et al. v President and Fellows of Harvard College et al. (2015), in which seven Harvard students (including the author) filed suit to compel the university to divest its endowment from fossil fuel companies. I examine motivations for filing the suit in the context of the broader fossil fuel divestment movement, the case's history, and the challenges faced by the suit, including arguments surrounding causation, particularization, representation of future generations, limiting principles, and framing. I then discuss potential opportunities for fossil fuel divestment litigation in the future. As the field of climate change law develops further, litigation over fossil fuel investments could grow in frequency and importance