Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

The Utility of Screening Fetal Echocardiograms Following Normal Level II Ultrasounds in Fetuses with Maternal Congenital Heart Disease

Abstract Introduction Fetal echocardiograms (F-echo) are recommended in all pregnancies when maternal congenital heart disease (CHD) is present, even if there was a prior level II ultrasound (LII-US) that was normal. The goal of this study was to evaluate if any diagnosis of a critical CHD was missed in a fetus with maternal CHD who had a normal LII-US. Methods A retrospective chart review of all F-echoes where the indication was maternal CHD between 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2022 was performed. Fetuses were included if they had a LII-US that was read as normal and had an F-echo. Critical CHD was defined as CHD requiring catheterization or surgical intervention < 1 month of age. Results A total of 296 F-echoes on fetuses with maternal CHD were evaluated, of which 175 met inclusion criteria. LII-US was performed at 19.8 ± 2.9 weeks gestational age and F-echo was performed at 24.2 ± 2.8 weeks gestational age. No patient with a normal LII-US had a diagnosis of a critical CHD by F-echo (negative predictive value = 100%). Evaluating those patients that had a negative LII-US, ten patients were diagnosed with non-critical CHD postnatally (negative predictive value = 94.3%). F-echo correctly diagnosed two of the ten missed LII-US CHD. Conclusions Critical CHD was not missed with a normal LII-US in this at risk population. F-echo also missed the majority of CHD when a LII-US was read as normal. A cost–benefit analysis of screening F-echo in fetuses with maternal CHD should be conducted if a normal LII-US has been performed

Analysis of Copy Number Variants on Chromosome 21 in Down Syndrome-Associated Congenital Heart Defects

One in five people with Down syndrome (DS) are born with an atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD), an incidence 2000 times higher than in the euploid population. The genetic loci that contribute to this risk are poorly understood. In this study, we tested two hypotheses: (1) individuals with DS carrying chromosome 21 copy number variants (CNVs) that interrupt exons may be protected from AVSD, because these CNVs return AVSD susceptibility loci back to disomy, and (2) individuals with DS carrying chromosome 21 genes spanned by microduplications are at greater risk for AVSD because these microduplications boost the dosage of AVSD susceptibility loci beyond a tolerable threshold. We tested 198 case individuals with DS+AVSD, and 211 control individuals with DS and a normal heart, using a custom microarray with dense probes tiled on chromosome 21 for array CGH (aCGH). We found that neither an individual chromosome 21 CNV nor any individual gene intersected by a CNV was associated with AVSD in DS. Burden analyses revealed that African American controls had more bases covered by rare deletions than did African American cases. Inversely, we found that Caucasian cases had more genes intersected by rare duplications than did Caucasian controls. We also showed that previously DS+AVSD (DS and a complete AVSD)-associated common CNVs on chromosome 21 failed to replicate. This research adds to the swell of evidence indicating that DS-associated AVSD is similarly heterogeneous, as is AVSD in the euploid population