Modeling Cultural Keystone Species for the Conservation of Biocultural Diversity in the Afroalpine

Climate warming threatens the future sustainability of mountains, and tropical mountains are particularly threatened with loss of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. Conservation biologists increasingly turn to habitat suitability models to guide the establishment and assessment of protected area networks to protect the highest number of species, yet this focus often neglects the values, attitudes, and beliefs of the people living around protected areas. If we consider protected areas as dynamic social–ecological systems, habitat suitability modeling for conservation planning must pay greater attention to the role of biocultural diversity, rather than biodiversity alone. Here, we describe a conservation assessment of the Afroalpine grassland ecosystem in the northern highlands of Ethiopia. We use a cultural keystone species known as guassa grass (Festuca macrophyhlla) to focus our modeling efforts and evaluate the potential distribution of this endemic species in relation to current national and community-based protected areas. Our model performed highly according to the area under the curve (AUC = 0.96), yet nearly 80% of highly suitable guassa habitat falls outside the range of our training data and thus must be interpreted conservatively. We found that guassa grass distribution is primarily limited by low mean temperature in the warmest quarter (BIO10, 36.7%), high precipitation in the wettest quarter (BIO16, 21%), and low precipitation in the driest quarter (BIO17, 15.6%). As climate change causes rapid warming at high elevations and alters rainfall patterns in the Ethiopian highlands, we urge managers to carefully monitor the changing populations of guassa grass to evaluate whether the species is experiencing an extinction debt. We also recommend four additional areas as potential community-based conservation areas, with government and NGO support for peer-to-peer communication networks. Spatially explicit modeling may be a valuable tool to determine whether these existing and proposed protected areas can sustain future populations of guassa grass

Quantifying shrub encroachment through soil seed bank analysis in the Ethiopian highlands.

This study aimed to understand the impact of shrub encroachment on native species in the Guassa Community Conservation Area in Ethiopia. We assessed the soil seed bank composition and density across different elevations and aspects, and management systems within the area. The vegetation was stratified and eight blocks were selected across a range of elevation (3350 m) and aspect (northeast, northwest, southeast, southwest). Within each block we established twenty 5m x 5m plots for a total of 160. We then collected soil samples from five subplots (1 m x 1 m) at three depths (0-3 cm, 3-6 cm and 6-9 cm) for a total of 480 samples, which were established in pots in greenhouse. We calculated species abundance by totaling the number of seedlings that emerged from each sample. To determine the variability in the abundance of Festuca macrophylla and Helichrysum splendidum in the soil seed bank along altitudinal gradient, we used two-way ANOVA using SAS statistical software version 9.0.1. Shannon diversity index was used to determine species diversity in the soil seedbank. After counting all the seeds, we identified 74 plant species represented in the soil seedbank which belong to 55 genera and 23 families. Eleven species are endemic to Ethiopia. At the lower elevation range, the effects of aspect (P <0.0088) and soil depth (P <0.005) are not significant to determine the abundance of seeds of H. splendidum and F. macrophylla. But when the factors are segregated, both aspect and soil depth play a significant role (p<0.0001) regarding the abundance of the seeds of the competing species at lower elevation. At higher elevation, only the effect of soil depth is significant (P<0.0001) for determining the abundance of H. splendidum. Soil depth and aspect have no significant effects on soil seed bank abundance at this elevation

Quantifying shrub encroachment through soil seed bank analysis in the Ethiopian highlands

This study aimed to understand the impact of shrub encroachment on native species in the Guassa Community Conservation Area in Ethiopia. We assessed the soil seed bank composition and density across different elevations and aspects, and management systems within the area. The vegetation was stratified and eight blocks were selected across a range of elevation (3350 m) and aspect (northeast, northwest, southeast, southwest). Within each block we established twenty 5m x 5m plots for a total of 160. We then collected soil samples from five subplots (1 m x 1 m) at three depths (0–3 cm, 3–6 cm and 6–9 cm) for a total of 480 samples, which were established in pots in greenhouse. We calculated species abundance by totaling the number of seedlings that emerged from each sample. To determine the variability in the abundance of Festuca macrophylla and Helichrysum splendidum in the soil seed bank along altitudinal gradient, we used two-way ANOVA using SAS statistical software version 9.0.1. Shannon diversity index was used to determine species diversity in the soil seedbank. After counting all the seeds, we identified 74 plant species represented in the soil seedbank which belong to 55 genera and 23 families. Eleven species are endemic to Ethiopia. At the lower elevation range, the effects of aspect (P <0.0088) and soil depth (P <0.005) are not significant to determine the abundance of seeds of H. splendidum and F. macrophylla. But when the factors are segregated, both aspect and soil depth play a significant role (p<0.0001) regarding the abundance of the seeds of the competing species at lower elevation. At higher elevation, only the effect of soil depth is significant (P<0.0001) for determining the abundance of H. splendidum. Soil depth and aspect have no significant effects on soil seed bank abundance at this elevation