Drought

Ope

The Severe Winter of 1981-1982 in Illinois

The winter of 1981-1982 was Illinois' fourth severe winter in six years and the second most severe on record. Eighteen severe winter storms equalled the record number set in the winter of 1977-1978. The winter was unusually long, lasting from late November through early April. This report examines the climatology of the winter in regard to storm characteristics, snowfall, and temperature and contains a general synoptic analysis of each storm. Mean upper atmospheric circulation patterns of this and three previous severe winters are compared. Impacts of the severe storms and the winter in general are discussed in terms of transportation, utilities, public health, government, agriculture, and the environment. The winter of 1981-1982 had the greatest impact in central and southern Illinois. Up to 20 inches of snow and blizzard-like conditions in south central Illinois during the storm of 29-31 January led to it being classified as the most damaging of the winter. The storms and cold of the winter were responsible for 34 deaths and at least 550 injuries statewide. Transportation and energy usage and costs were most affected by the winter weather. Serious agricultural damage resulted from the severe cold, and both the snow and cold had detrimental effects on wildlife.publishedpeer reviewedOpe

One Versus Two Handedness: Directional Preference in a Silent-Failure Scenario

This study focused on the direction drivers of a self-driving car will turn to avoid a crash at a T-intersection. We hypothesized that drivers would steer differently when they drive using both hands and when they use their dominant hand only. Specifically, we hypothesized that participants would favor the direction of their dominant hand (if they use their dominant hand only) and that there with be no directional preference if driving with both hands.. To test this hypothesis, we implemented a driving simulator study. We asked the participants to use either both their hands or only their dominant hand to avoid a crash. We are currently analyzing the data. Keywords: one-handed, two-handed, automated vehicle, silent takeover, directional preferenc

Simulating the influences of groundwater on regional geomorphology using a distributed, dynamic, landscape evolution modelling platform

A dynamic landscape evolution modelling platform (CLiDE) is presented that allows a variety of Earth system interactions to be explored under differing environmental forcing factors. Representation of distributed surface and subsurface hydrology within CLiDE is suited to simulation at sub-annual to centennial time-scales. In this study the hydrological components of CLiDE are evaluated against analytical solutions and recorded datasets. The impact of differing groundwater regimes on sediment discharge is examined for a simple, idealised catchment, Sediment discharge is found to be a function of the evolving catchment morphology. Application of CLiDE to the upper Eden Valley catchment, UK, suggests the addition of baseflow-return from groundwater into the fluvial system modifies the total catchment sediment discharge and the spatio-temporal distribution of sediment fluxes during storm events. The occurrence of a storm following a period of appreciable antecedent rainfall is found to increase simulated sediment fluxes

The 1980-1981 drought in Illinois causes, dimensions, and impact

Hydrologic, meteorological, and climatological aspects of the 1980-1981 drought in Illinois are addressed. The drought is evaluated in terms of precipitation, streamflow, lakes and reservoirs, and groundwater resources of the state. The meteorological conditions that produced the drought also are addressed. Impacts and problems resulting from the drought are discussed along with various actions taken to ameliorate the problems. Although the primary goal of the study was to quantify the drought, primarily in a physical sense, an important secondary goal was to assess the impacts and the actions employed, to derive information needed in future planning and handling of Illinois droughts. The report thus ends with a set of recommendations for coping with future droughts. The 1980-1981 drought was not one of the extreme droughts of record; however, it is important in that it was the most severe drought since those of the early 1950’s. As such, it reflects some new types of impacts on the state’s water resources due to technological, hydrological, and institutional changes since the 1950’s.publishedpeer reviewedOpe

Encouraging Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts by Farmers

What encourages use of seasonal climate forecasts? Considerable effort is being applied in developing seasonal climate forecasts and demonstrating the potential benefits available to farmers from using seasonal climate forecasts. This study examines three factors underlying the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers: the level of forecast understanding by farmers, the format presentation of the forecasts, and the attitude of farmers towards the usefulness of forecasts as indicators of future rainfall. Using judgement analysis, the use of forecasts in cropping decisions was determined for 73 Australian farmers. Then a moderated regression analysis was used to predict forecast use from the three underlying factors. The study found that a good understanding of the forecast was more important than the forecast format in predicting its use. However, this main effect of good understanding on higher use was qualified by a three-way interaction, such that seasonal climate forecasts and the forecasts were presented in a frequency format. Thus, the study found all three factors were important in predicting the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. However, relatively little is known about farmer attitudes toward the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts and how these attitudes arise, and further research is recommended in these areas

Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Seasonal Simulations of Maximum Surface Air Temperature Over the Southeastern United States

Coarsely resolved surface air temperature (2 m height) seasonal integrations from the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Global Spectral Model (FSU/COAPS GSM) (~1.8º lon.-lat. (T63)) for the period of 1994 to 2002 (March through September each year) are downscaled to a fine spatial scale of ~20 km. Dynamical and statistical downscaling methods are applied for the southeastern United States region, covering Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Dynamical downscaling is conducted by running the FSU/COAPS Nested Regional Spectral Model (NRSM), which is nested into the domain of the FSU/COAPS GSM. We additionally present a new statistical downscaling method. The rationale for the statistical approach is that clearer separation of prominent climate signals (e.g., seasonal cycle, intraseasonal, or interannual oscillations) in observation and GSM, respectively, over the training period can facilitate the identification of the statistical relationship in climate variability between two data sets. Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis and multiple regressions are trained with those data sets to extract their statistical relationship, which eventually leads to better prediction of regional climate from the large-scale simulations. Downscaled temperatures are compared with the FSU/COAPS GSM fields and observations. Downscaled seasonal anomalies exhibit strong agreement with observations and a reduction in bias relative to the direct GSM simulations. Interannual temperature change is also reasonably simulated at local grid points. A series of evaluations including mean absolute errors, anomaly correlations, frequency of extreme events, and categorical predictability reveal that both downscaling techniques can be reliably used for numerous seasonal climate applications

Establishing the database of inundation potential in Taiwan

Copyright © Springer 2006. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-4659-7The structural measure was the major solution for flood defense in Taiwan. However, the measure is always limited to the design standard and cannot prevent the damages when floods exceed certain scale. Therefore, non-structural measures for flood mitigation are the indispensable complements to structural solutions. The study introduces the establishment of inundation potential database that provides required information for the non-structural measures in Taiwan. The database was built by numerical simulations, based on different rainfall scenarios, and has been applied by the local governments of Taiwan for land use managements, flood warning systems, emergency responses, and flood insurance programs to reduce the flood damages and impacts.National Science Council, Executive Yuan, ROC

Precipitation Augmentation for Crops Experiments: Pre-experimental Phase Studies

published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewedOpe