Reducing the health risks of severe winter weather among older people in the United Kingdom: an evidence-based intervention

Excess winter morbidity and mortality among older people remain significant public health issues in those European countries which experience relatively mild winter temperatures, particularly the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In the UK, episodes of severe winter weather, when ambient temperatures fall below 5x C, are associated with peaks in general practitioner consultations,hospital admissions, and cardiovascular deaths among those aged over 65. While research indicates that such health risks could be substantially reduced by the adoption of appropriate behavioural strategies, accessible and credible advice on how older people can reduce risk during ‘cold snaps’ is lacking. This paper describes a programme of research that aimed: (a) to translate the relevant scientific literature into practical advice for older people in order to reduce health risk during episodes of severe winter weather ; and (b) to integrate this advice with a severe winter weather ‘Early Warning System’ developed by the UK Met Office. An advice booklet was generated through a sequential process of systematic review, consensus development, and focus group discussions with older people. In a subsequent field trial, a combination of the Met Office ‘Early Warning System’ and the advice booklet produced behavioural change among older people consistent with risk reduction. The results also show that long-held convictions about ‘healthy environments ’ and anxieties about fuel costs are barriers to risk reduction

Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how

In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful

Demystifying academics to enhance university-business collaborations in environmental science

In countries globally there is intense political interest in fostering effective university-business collaborations, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how an individual scientist's workload (i.e. specified tasks) and incentive structures (i.e. assessment criteria) may act as a key barrier to this. To investigate this an original, empirical dataset is derived from UK job specifications and promotion criteria, which distil universities' varied drivers into requirements upon academics. This work reveals the nature of the severe challenge posed by a heavily time-constrained culture; specifically, tension exists between opportunities presented by working with business and non-optional duties (e.g. administration and teaching). Thus, to justify the time to work with business, such work must inspire curiosity and facilitate future novel science in order to mitigate its conflict with the overriding imperative for academics to publish. It must also provide evidence of real-world changes (i.e. impact), and ideally other reportable outcomes (e.g. official status as a business' advisor), to feed back into the scientist's performance appraisals. Indicatively, amid 20-50 key duties, typical full-time scientists may be able to free up to 0.5 day per week for work with business. Thus specific, pragmatic actions, including short-term and time-efficient steps, are proposed in a "user guide"to help initiate and nurture a long-term collaboration between an early- to mid-career environmental scientist and a practitioner in the insurance sector. These actions are mapped back to a tailored typology of impact and a newly created representative set of appraisal criteria to explain how they may be effective, mutually beneficial and overcome barriers. Throughout, the focus is on environmental science, with illustrative detail provided through the example of natural hazard risk modelling in the insurance sector. However, a new conceptual model of academics' behaviour is developed, fusing perspectives from literature on academics' motivations and performance assessment, which we propose is internationally applicable and transferable between sectors. Sector-specific details (e.g. list of relevant impacts and user guide) may serve as templates for how people may act differently to work more effectively together

Cell-based screen for altered nuclear phenotypes reveals senescence progression in polyploid cells after Aurora kinase B inhibition.

Cellular senescence is a widespread stress response and is widely considered to be an alternative cancer therapeutic goal. Unlike apoptosis, senescence is composed of a diverse set of subphenotypes, depending on which of its associated effector programs are engaged. Here we establish a simple and sensitive cell-based prosenescence screen with detailed validation assays. We characterize the screen using a focused tool compound kinase inhibitor library. We identify a series of compounds that induce different types of senescence, including a unique phenotype associated with irregularly shaped nuclei and the progressive accumulation of G1 tetraploidy in human diploid fibroblasts. Downstream analyses show that all of the compounds that induce tetraploid senescence inhibit Aurora kinase B (AURKB). AURKB is the catalytic component of the chromosome passenger complex, which is involved in correct chromosome alignment and segregation, the spindle assembly checkpoint, and cytokinesis. Although aberrant mitosis and senescence have been linked, a specific characterization of AURKB in the context of senescence is still required. This proof-of-principle study suggests that our protocol is capable of amplifying tetraploid senescence, which can be observed in only a small population of oncogenic RAS-induced senescence, and provides additional justification for AURKB as a cancer therapeutic target.This work was supported by the University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Hutchison Whampoa; Cancer Research UK grants A6691 and A9892 (M.N., N.K., C.J.T., D.C.B., C.J.C., L.S.G, and M.S.); a fellowship from the Uehara Memorial Foundation (M.S.).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Society for Cell Biology via http://dx.doi.org/10.1091/mbc.E15-01-000

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