A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a multi-model approach

The accurate prediction of rainfall events, in terms of their timing, location and rainfall depth, is important to a wide range of social and economic applications. At many operational weather prediction centres, as is also the case at the South African Weather Service, forecasters use deterministic model outputs as guidance to produce subjective probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The aim of this research was to determine the skill of a new objective multi-model, multi-institute probabilistic ensemble forecast system for South Africa. Such forecasts are obtained by combining the rainfall forecasts of 2 operational high-resolution regional atmospheric models in South Africa. The first model is the Unified Model (UM), which is operational at the South African Weather Service. The UM contributes 3 ensemble members, each with a different physics scheme, data assimilation techniques and horizontal resolution. The second model is the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) which is operational at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, which in turn contributed 2 members to the ensemble system based on different horizontal resolutions. A single-model ensemble forecast, with each of the ensemble members having equal weights, was constructed for the UM and CCAM models, respectively. These UM and CCAM single-model ensemble predictions are then combined into a multi-model ensemble prediction, using simple un-weighted averaging. The probabilistic forecasts produced by the single-model system as well as the multi-model system have been tested against observed rainfall data over 3 austral summer 6-month periods from 2006/07 to 2008/09, using the Brier skill score, relative operating characteristics, and the reliability diagram. The forecast system was found to be more skilful than the persistence forecast. Moreover, the system outscores the forecast skill of the individual models

Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient

We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide

Multimode fibre:Light-sheet microscopy at the tip of a needle

We also thank the UK Engineering and Physics Sciences Research Council for funding under grant EP/J01771X/1. Finally, we would like to thank EXCELLENT TEAMS (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0005) from European Social Fund and CEITEC - Central European Institute of Technology (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0068) from European Regional Development Fund for support.Light-sheet fluorescence microscopy has emerged as a powerful platform for 3-D volumetric imaging in the life sciences. Here, we introduce an important step towards its use deep inside biological tissue. Our new technique, based on digital holography, enables delivery of the light-sheet through a multimode optical fibre - an optical element with extremely small footprint, yet permitting complex control of light transport processes within. We show that this approach supports some of the most advanced methods in light-sheet microscopy: by taking advantage of the cylindrical symmetry of the fibre, we facilitate the wavefront engineering methods for generation of both Bessel and structured Bessel beam plane illumination. Finally, we assess the quality of imaging on a sample of fluorescent beads fixed in agarose gel and we conclude with a proof-of-principle imaging of a biological sample, namely the regenerating operculum prongs of Spirobranchus lamarcki.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator

Deep and fast live imaging with two-photon scanned light-sheet microscopy

We implemented two-photon scanned light-sheet microscopy, combining nonlinear excitation with orthogonal illumination of light-sheet microscopy, and showed its excellent performance for in vivo, cellular-resolution, three-dimensional imaging of large biological samples. Live imaging of fruit fly and zebrafish embryos confirmed that the technique can be used to image up to twice deeper than with one-photon light-sheet microscopy and more than ten times faster than with point-scanning two-photon microscopy without compromising normal biology

Factors underlying age-related changes in discrete aiming

Age has a clear impact on one’s ability to make accurate goal-directed aiming movements. Older adults seem to plan slower and shorter-ranged initial pulses towards the target, and rely more on sensory feedback to ensure endpoint accuracy. Despite the fact that these age-related changes in manual aiming have been observed consistently, the underlying mechanism remains speculative. In an attempt to isolate four commonly suggested underlying factors, young and older adults were instructed to make discrete aiming movements under varying speed and accuracy constraints. Results showed that older adults were physically able to produce fast primary submovements and that they demonstrated similar movement-programming capacities as young adults. On the other hand, considerable evidence was found supporting a decreased visual feedback-processing efficiency and the implementation of a play-it-safe strategy in older age. In conclusion, a combination of the latter two factors seems to underlie the age-related changes in manual aiming behaviour

Biogeographic distributions of neotropical trees reflect their directly measured drought tolerances

High levels of species diversity hamper current understanding of how tropical forests may respond to environmental change. In the tropics, water availability is a leading driver of the diversity and distribution of tree species, suggesting that many tropical taxa may be physiologically incapable of tolerating dry conditions, and that their distributions along moisture gradients can be used to predict their drought tolerance. While this hypothesis has been explored at local and regional scales, large continental-scale tests are lacking. We investigate whether the relationship between drought-induced mortality and distributions holds continentally by relating experimental and observational data of drought-induced mortality across the Neotropics to the large-scale bioclimatic distributions of 115 tree genera. Across the different experiments, genera affiliated to wetter climatic regimes show higher drought-induced mortality than dry-affiliated ones, even after controlling for phylogenetic relationships. This pattern is stronger for adult trees than for saplings or seedlings, suggesting that the environmental filters exerted by drought impact adult tree survival most strongly. Overall, our analysis of experimental, observational, and bioclimatic data across neotropical forests suggests that increasing moisture-stress is indeed likely to drive significant changes in floristic composition

Resolution of Ultramicroscopy and Field of View Analysis

In a recent publication we described a microscopical technique called Ultramicroscopy, combined with a histological procedure that makes biological samples transparent. With this combination we can gather three-dimensional image data of large biological samples. Here we present the theoretical analysis of the z-resolution. By analyzing the cross-section of the illuminating sheet of light we derive resolution values according to the Rayleigh-criterion. Next we investigate the resolution adjacent to the focal point of the illumination beam, analyze throughout what extend the illumination beam is of acceptable sharpness and investigate the resolution improvements caused by the objective lens. Finally we conclude with a useful rule for the sampling rates. These findings are of practical importance for researchers working with Ultramicroscopy to decide on adequate sampling rates. They are also necessary to modify deconvolution techniques to gain further image improvements

Fibroblasts Express Immune Relevant Genes and Are Important Sentinel Cells during Tissue Damage in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Fibroblasts have shown to be an immune competent cell type in mammals. However, little is known about the immunological functions of this cell-type in lower vertebrates. A rainbow trout hypodermal fibroblast cell-line (RTHDF) was shown to be responsive to PAMPs and DAMPs after stimulation with LPS from E. coli, supernatant and debris from sonicated RTHDF cells. LPS was overall the strongest inducer of IL-1β, IL-8, IL-10, TLR-3 and TLR-9. IL-1β and IL-8 were already highly up regulated after 1 hour of LPS stimulation. Supernatant stimuli significantly increased the expression of IL-1β, TLR-3 and TLR-9, whereas the debris stimuli only increased expression of IL-1β. Consequently, an in vivo experiment was further set up. By mechanically damaging the muscle tissue of rainbow trout, it was shown that fibroblasts in the muscle tissue of rainbow trout contribute to electing a highly local inflammatory response following tissue injury. The damaged muscle tissue showed a strong increase in the expression of the immune genes IL-1β, IL-8 and TGF-β already 4 hours post injury at the site of injury while the expression in non-damaged muscle tissue was not influenced. A weaker, but significant response was also seen for TLR-9 and TLR-22. Rainbow trout fibroblasts were found to be highly immune competent with a significant ability to express cytokines and immune receptors. Thus fish fibroblasts are believed to contribute significantly to local inflammatory reactions in concert with the traditional immune cells

Perceived leader integrity as a mediator between ethical leadership and ethical climate in a teaching context

Background: Scandalous incidents occurring in prominent organisations in the world have brought to limelight the role of leaders in shaping the ethical climate of their organisations. As a result, several studies across different organisational/occupational contexts and climes have examined and unanimously proven that ethical leadership was positively related to ethical climate. However, there is rarely any of these studies that was conducted in teaching context. Besides, the mechanisms involved between ethical leadership and ethical climate seems not to have been addressed in literature. Thus, this paper reports the findings of a study that investigated the mediating role of perceived leader integrity in the ethical leadership-ethical climate relationship among teachers. Methods: Data were collected from 336 teachers (105 male and 231 female) in three-time periods using measures of ethical leadership, perceived leader integrity, ethical climate, and demographics. Results: The results from OLS regression-based path analysis showed that: 1) ethical leadership was positively related to perceived leader integrity, 2) perceived leader integrity was positively related to ethical climate, 3) ethical leadership was positively related to ethical climate, and 4) the positive relationship between ethical leadership and ethical climate was mediated by perceived leader integrity. Conclusions: The current study extends the social learning theory by identifying perceived leader integrity as a mechanism underlying the relationship between ethical leadership and ethical climate. The findings have some implications for personnel selection especially in relation to selection of ethical leaders.</p