From Welfare to Work: Has Welfare Reform Worked?

This paper discusses estimates of the effect of welfare reform,as measured by the imposition of time limits and family cap provisions, on the employment and fertility of less educated unmarried women. This analysis shows that welfare reform has induced less educated unmarried women to move from welfare to work in significant numbers. The imposition of time limits and other administrative reforms correlated with it have increased the employment of unmarried women with 12 or fewer years of education by an estimated 363,171, approximately 28 percent of the decline in welfare caseloads for this group since 1994. Furthermore, evidence shows that women who have left welfare for employment worked approximately 29 hours per week, which even at low wages may significantly improve their financial status relative to public assistance. However, little evidence can be found to show that the imposition of time limits and family caps affect the fertility of less educated unmarried women. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Immigrants, welfare reform, and the economy

The welfare reform bill adopted in the United States in 1996 limited the eligibility of immigrants for several government assistance programs, and early projections estimated that nearly half of the savings associated with the reforms would come from these immigrant restrictions. Several studies have found that subsequent program participation declined more for immigrants relative to natives, seemingly verifying the early projections. However, many of these restrictions were either rescinded by the federal government or superceded by state and local policies. In this paper, we first reproduce earlier findings that show the relative declines in program use among immigrants. We then show that much, but not all, of the relative decline in program use among immigrants can be explained by changing macroeconomic conditions. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Welfare transitions in the 1990s: The economy, welfare policy, and the EITC

The rapid decline in the welfare caseload remains a subject of keen interest to both policymakers and researchers. In this paper, I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation spanning the period from 1986 to 1999 to analyze how the economy, welfare reform, the earned income tax credit (EITC), and other factors influence welfare entries and exits, which in turn affect the caseload. I find that the decline in the welfare caseload resulted from both increases in exits and decreases in entries. Entries were most significantly affected by the economy, the decline in the real value of welfare benefits, and the expansion of the EITC. Exits were most significantly affected by the economy and federal welfare reform. Federal reform had its greatest effects on longer-term spells of the type generally experienced by more disadvantaged recipients. Some out-of-sample predictions help explain the otherwise puzzling observation that, despite substantial increases in the unemployment rate since 2000, caseloads have remained roughly constant. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management