Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth System Models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way ANOVA approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times. For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modelled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes, thus we can be more confident in linking different future socio-economic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The apparent agreement in atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modelled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxesMOHC authors were supported by the Joint DECC / Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Cli- mate Programme (GA01101). SY was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University grant “Bayesian Modelling for Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Predictions” (1-ZV9Z). We acknowl- edge use of R software package (R Core Team 2013). We acknowledge the World Climate Re- search Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and we thank the climate modelling groups for providing their GCM output (listed in Table 1). Support of this dataset was provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

The politics of regulatory enforcement and compliance: Theorizing and operationalizing political influences

There is broad consensus in the literature on regulatory enforcement and compliance that politics matters. However, there is little scholarly convergence on what politics is or rigorous theorization and empirical testing of how politics matters. Many enforcement and compliance studies omit political variables altogether. Among those that address political influences on regulatory outcomes, politics has been defined in myriad ways and, too often, left undefined. Even when political constructs are explicitly operationalized, the mechanisms by which they influence regulatory outcomes are thinly hypothesized or simply ignored. If politics is truly as important to enforcement and compliance outcomes as everyone in the field seems to agree, regulatory scholarship must make a more sustained and systematic effort to understand their relationship, because overlooking this connection risks missing what is actually driving regulatory outcomes. This article examines how the construct of “politics” has been conceptualized in regulatory theory and analyzes how it has been operationalized in empirical studies of regulatory enforcement and compliance outcomes. It brings together scholarship across disciplines that rarely speak but have much to say to one another on this subject in order to constitute a field around the politics of regulation. The goal is to sharpen theoretical and empirical understandings of when and how regulation works by better accounting for the role politics plays in its enforcement

Efficacy of c-Met inhibitor for advanced prostate cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Aberrant expression of HGF/SF and its receptor, c-Met, often correlates with advanced prostate cancer. Our previous study showed that expression of c-Met in prostate cancer cells was increased after attenuation of androgen receptor (AR) signalling. This suggested that current androgen ablation therapy for prostate cancer activates c-Met expression and may contribute to development of more aggressive, castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Therefore, we directly assessed the efficacy of c-Met inhibition during androgen ablation on the growth and progression of prostate cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We tested two c-Met small molecule inhibitors, PHA-665752 and PF-2341066, for anti-proliferative activity by MTS assay and cell proliferation assay on human prostate cancer cell lines with different levels of androgen sensitivity. We also used renal subcapsular and castrated orthotopic xenograft mouse models to assess the effect of the inhibitors on prostate tumor formation and progression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated a dose-dependent inhibitory effect of PHA-665752 and PF-2341066 on the proliferation of human prostate cancer cells and the phosphorylation of c-Met. The effect on cell proliferation was stronger in androgen insensitive cells. The c-Met inhibitor, PF-2341066, significantly reduced growth of prostate tumor cells in the renal subcapsular mouse model and the castrated orthotopic mouse model. The effect on cell proliferation was greater following castration.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The c-Met inhibitors demonstrated anti-proliferative efficacy when combined with androgen ablation therapy for advanced prostate cancer.</p

Analysis of preterm deliveries below 35 weeks' gestation in a tertiary referral hospital in the UK. A case-control survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Preterm birth remains a major public health problem and its incidence worldwide is increasing. Epidemiological risk factors have been investigated in the past, but there is a need for a better understanding of the causes of preterm birth in well defined obstetric populations in tertiary referral centres; it is important to repeat surveillance and identify possible changes in clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with preterm delivery. The aim of this study was to identify current risk factors associated with preterm delivery and highlight areas for further research.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>We studied women with singleton deliveries at St Michael's Hospital, Bristol during 2002 and 2003. 274 deliveries between 23-35 weeks' gestation (preterm group), were compared to 559 randomly selected control deliveries at term (37-42 weeks) using standard statistical procedures. Both groups were >80% Caucasian. Previous preterm deliveries, high maternal age (> 39 years), socioeconomic problems, smoking during pregnancy, hypertension, psychiatric disorders and uterine abnormalities were significantly associated with preterm deliveries. Both lean and obese mothers were more common in the preterm group. Women with depression/psychiatric disease were significantly more likely to have social problems, to have smoked during pregnancy and to have had previous preterm deliveries; when adjustments for these three factors were made the relationship between psychiatric disease and pregnancy outcome was no longer significant. 53% of preterm deliveries were spontaneous, and were strongly associated with episodes of threatened preterm labour. Medically indicated preterm deliveries were associated with hypertension and fetal growth restriction. Preterm premature rupture of the membranes, vaginal bleeding, anaemia and oligohydramnios were significantly increased in both spontaneous and indicated preterm deliveries compared to term controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>More than 50% of preterm births are potentially preventable, but remain associated with risk factors such as increased uterine contractility, preterm premature rupture of the membranes and uterine bleeding whose aetiology is unknown. Despite remarkable advances in perinatal care, preterm birth continues to cause neonatal deaths and long-term morbidity. Significant breakthroughs in the management of preterm birth are likely to come from research into the mechanisms of human parturition and the pathophysiology of preterm labour using multidisciplinary clinical and laboratory approaches.</p

Bringing CASE in from the cold: the teaching and learning of thinking

Thinking Science is a two-year program of professional development for teachers and thinking lessons for students in junior high school science classes. This paper presents research on the effects of Thinking Science on students’ levels of cognition in Australia. The research is timely with a general capability focused on critical thinking in the newly implemented F-10 curriculum in Australia. The design of the research was a quasi-experiment with pre and post-intervention cognitive tests conducted with participating students (n = 655) from nine cohorts in seven high schools. Findings showed significant cognitive gains compared with an age matched control group over the length of the program. Noteworthy, is a correlation between baseline cognitive score and school Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA). We argue that the teaching of thinking be brought into the mainstream arena of educational discourse and the principles from evidence-based programs such as Thinking Science be universally adopted

Effect of Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections on Physical Fitness of School Children in Côte d'Ivoire

The burden of parasitic worm infections is considerable, particularly in developing countries. It is acknowledged that parasitic worm infections negatively impact on children's school performance and physical development. A deeper understanding of these linkages is important for updating burden of disease measures. We investigated the relationship between worm infection status and physical fitness of 156 school children from Côte d'Ivoire and controlled for potential confounding of Plasmodium infection (the causative agent of malaria) and environmental parameters (temperature and humidity). Children were diagnosed for parasitic worm and Plasmodium infections, examined by a physician, and participated in a 20 m shuttle run test to assess their maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) as a proxy for physical fitness. Most of the children had parasitic worms and a Plasmodium infection. Nevertheless, their physical fitness was excellent (average VO2 max: 52.7 ml kg−1 min−1). The level of VO2 max was only influenced by sex and age, but not by parasitic worms and Plasmodium infections. In future studies, the dynamics of children's physical performance should be assessed before and after control interventions, including the assessment of blood hemoglobin, hematocrit, and nutritional indicators to determine whether physical fitness in worm- and Plasmodium-infected individuals can be further improved

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure