The EU CADZIE database for extreme and deflected snow avalanches

International audienceThe EU programme CADZIE (Catastrophic Avalanches: Defence Structures and Zoning in Europe), was established after the catastrophic 1999 avalanche winter in Europe. The overall objective of the programme is improved snow avalanche risk management by: (1) improved avalanche hazard zoning by computational models; and (2) improved understanding of the interaction between defence structures and avalanches. One contribution to meet the objectives is a database of well-documented extreme or deflected avalanche events in the six countries of the partners of the programme. The database contains observational, topographical and meteorological snow avalanche data with reliability, as well as references, copyrights, etc., all in a convenient framework based on common formats. The structure, contents, and potential use of the database are described. Example calculations of extreme and deflected events made by the NGI user interface "SKRED", for practical use of avalanche computational models, present applications of the database. Finally, further development of the database and of the computational models to meet the future needs in avalanche hazard zoning is proposed

Comparing approaches for numerical modelling of tsunami generation by deformable submarine slides

Tsunami generated by submarine slides are arguably an under-considered risk in comparison to earthquake-generated tsunami. Numerical simulations of submarine slide-generated waves can be used to identify the important factors in determining wave characteristics. Here we use Fluidity, an open source finite element code, to simulate waves generated by deformable submarine slides. Fluidity uses flexible unstructured meshes combined with adaptivity which alters the mesh topology and resolution based on the simulation state, focussing or reducing resolution, when and where it is required. Fluidity also allows a number of different numerical approaches to be taken to simulate submarine slide deformation, free-surface representation, and wave generation within the same numerical framework. In this work we use a multi-material approach, considering either two materials (slide and water with a free surface) or three materials (slide, water and air), as well as a sediment model (sediment, water and free surface) approach. In all cases the slide is treated as a viscous fluid. Our results are shown to be consistent with laboratory experiments using a deformable submarine slide, and demonstrate good agreement when compared with other numerical models. The three different approaches for simulating submarine slide dynamics and tsunami wave generation produce similar waveforms and slide deformation geometries. However, each has its own merits depending on the application. Mesh adaptivity is shown to be able to reduce the computational cost without compromising the accuracy of results

Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024 — ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024 — ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

Source at https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter

Detailing the impact of the Storegga Tsunami at Montrose, Scotland

The Storegga tsunami, dated in Norway to 8150$30 cal. years BP, hit many countries bordering the North Sea. Run-ups of >30 m occurred and 1000s of kilometres of coast were impacted. Whilst recent modelling successfully generated a tsunami wave train, the wave heights and velocities, it under-estimated wave run-ups. Work presented here used luminescence to directly date the Storegga tsunami deposits at the type site of Maryton, Aberdeenshire in Scotland. It also undertook sedimentological characterization to establish provenance, and number and relative power of the tsunami waves. Tsunami model refinement used this to better understand coastal inundation. Luminescence ages successfully date Scottish Storegga tsunami deposits to 8100$250 years. Sedimentology showed that at Montrose, three tsunami waves came from the northeast or east, over-ran pre-existing marine sands and weathered igneous bedrock on the coastal plain. Incorporation of an inundation model predicts well a tsunami impacting on the Montrose Basin in terms of replicate direction and sediment size. However, under-estimation of run-up persisted requiring further consideration of palaeotopography and palaeo-near-shore bathymetry for it to agree with sedimentary evidence. Future model evolution incorporating this will be better able to inform on the hazard risk and potential impacts for future high-magnitude submarine generated tsunami events

The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.publishedVersio

30 years in the life of an active submarine volcano: A time-lapse bathymetry study of the Kick-‘em-Jenny Volcano, Lesser Antilles

Effective monitoring is an essential part of identifying and mitigating volcanic hazards. In the submarine environment this is more difficult than onshore because observations are typically limited to land-based seismic networks and infrequent shipboard surveys. Since the first recorded eruption in 1939, the Kick-‘em-Jenny (KeJ) volcano, located 8km off northern Grenada, has been the source of 13 episodes of T-phase signals. These distinctive seismic signals, often coincident with heightened body-wave seismicity, are interpreted as extrusive eruptions. They have occurred with a recurrence interval of around a decade, yet direct confirmation of volcanism has been rare. By conducting new bathymetric surveys in 2016 and 2017 and reprocessing 4 legacy datasets spanning 30 years we present a clearer picture of the development of KeJ through time. Processed grids with a cell size of 5m and vertical precision on the order of 1-4m allow us to correlate T-phase episodes with morphological changes at the volcano's edifice. In the time-period of observation 7.09x106 m3 of material has been added through constructive volcanism – yet 5 times this amount has been lost through landslides. Limited recent magma production suggests that KeJ may be susceptible to larger eruptions with longer repeat times than have occurred during the study interval, behavior more similar to sub-aerial volcanism in the arc than previously thought. T-phase signals at KeJ have a varied origin and are unlikely to be solely the result of extrusive submarine eruptions. Our results confirm the value of repeat swath bathymetry surveys in assessing submarine volcanic hazards