Berg, Erik

Bogstad, Bjarte

Clain, Laura

Eidset, Elise

Eriksen, Elena

Fall, Johanna Jennifer Elisabeth

Fossheim, Maria

Godiksen, Jane Aanestad

Gondra, Jon Ruiz

Hallfredsson, Elvar H.

Harbitz, Alf

Howell, Daniel

Husson, Berengere

Höffle, Hannes

Iriondo, Ane

Jacobsen, Jan Arge

Janusz, Jerzy

Johannesen, Edda

Marshall, C. Tara

Nielsen, Anders

Ono, Kotaro

Rodriguez, Alfonso Pérez

Skaret, Georg

Staby, Arved

Stiansen, Jan Erik

Stock, Brian

Tranang, Caroline Aas

Trochta, John Tyler

Vozgirdas, Eduardas

Wenneck, Thomas de Lange

English

Brage IMR

JOINTREPORTI M R / P I N R O82023Joint Report SeriesAdvice on fishing opportunitiesfor Barents Sea capelin in 2024ICES subareas 1 and 2 excludingDivision 2.a west of 5°WInstitute of Marine Research – IMR Polar branch of the FSBSI “VINRO” (“PINRO”)Rapportserie:IMR-PINROÅr - Nr.:2023-8Dato:16.10.2023Forfatter(e):Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)Godkjent av: Forskningsdirektør(er): Geir Huse Programleder(e):Distribusjon:ÅpenProgram:Barentshavet og PolhavetForskningsgruppe(r):Pelagisk fiskAntall sider:14Tittel (norsk og engelsk):Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Undertittel (norsk og engelsk):ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°WICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°WInnholdStock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W ) 4Advice on fishing opportunities 4Stock development over time 4Catch scenarios 4Basis of the advice 6Quality of the assessment 6Issues relevant for the advice 7Reference points 7Basis of the assessment 8History of the advice, catch, and management 8History of catch and landings 9Summary of the assessment 11References 13 Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )Released 16 October 2023Advice on fishing opportunitiesThe Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the JointNorwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 196000 tonnes.Stock development over timeSpawning‑stock size is above B . No reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (< 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomassreference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by thebeginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based onincomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, anduncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, maturing and immature stock biomasshas not been corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Incomplete survey coverage in 2018 might also have led to recruitmentunderestimation.  Catch scenariosCalculations of catch scenarios are based on a forward projection from the autumn acoustic survey. It involves that SSBfor April 2024 is calculated by taking into account predation by immature cod and other sources of natural mortality. AlimAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )4/14catch scenario that results in SSB greater than 200 000 tonnes with 95% probability corresponds to the JNRFCManagement Plan.Table 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assumptions made for the interim yearand in the forecast. All weights are in tonnes.Variable Value NotesMaturing stock biomass 2023 1285890Median biomass of fish above the length‑at‑maturity (14 cm), estimated based on theautumn acoustic survey 1 October 2023. These fish will be spawning in April 2024; tonnes.Predation by immature cod January–March 2024; from the predation model296000Based on the prediction of cod abundance in 2024 from the 2023 cod stock assessment(Anon, 2023a); tonnes.Table 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Annual catch scenarios. P = probability.All weights are in tonnes.Basis Total catch(2024 )Median SSB(2024 )P (SSB 2024 > 200 000 t) in %% TACchange*% advicechange**ICES advice basisMP harvest control rule,P (SSB > 200 000 t) = 95% 196 000 590 000 95 +216 +216Other scenariosNo fishing 0 785 000 99.8 -100 -100* TAC (2024) vs. TAC (2023).** Advice (2024) vs Advice (2023). Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for thematuring stock from 1 October 2023 to 1 April 2024, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2023 assuming a catch of196 000 tonnes. The median and the 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution are shown. Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )5/14Basis of the adviceTable 3. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The basis of the advice.Advicebasis Management planManagementplanIn 2002, the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) adopted the following harvest control rule (HCR) forBarents Sea capelin: ‘The TAC for the following year should be set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes ofcapelin (B ) will be allowed to spawn ’. ICES evaluated this HCR as well as alternative HCRs suggested by JNRFC in 2016(ICES, 2016), and only the existing HCR was found to be precautionary. Following ICES evaluation, the JNRFC decided tomaintain the existing HCR (JNRFC, 2016). It should be noted that the term B  in the harvest control rule is replaced byB  in the latest benchmark report (ICES, 2023), and B  is set to 200 000 tonnes (cf Table 4).Quality of the assessmentThe geographical survey coverage of the Barents Sea capelin stock during the BESS in 2023 was close to complete(Figure 3); the capelin distribution might have continued a little bit further northwards in the north-east.limlimescapement escapementAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )6/14Figure 3. Survey coverage and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2023. The size of the circlescorresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m /nmi ) per 1 nautical mile. Gray dots mark transects or transectsections without capelin recordings. Issues relevant for the adviceDue to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR(Norway) (Anon., 2023b). This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice.However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the new methodology agreed and described indetail at the recent ICES benchmark in 2022 (ICES, 2023), which is thus used for the first time.Reference points2 2Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )7/14Table 4. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Reference points, values, and theirtechnical basis.Framework Referencepoint Value Technical basis SourceMSYapproachMSY B    F    PrecautionaryapproachB 68  000 tSSB , which was the lowest SSB after the herring collapse that has produced agood year class. SSB estimated on April 1.ICES (20 23)B    F    F    ManagementplanB 200 000tReference point defining the SSB-level used in the HCR. The HCR determines thatTAC shall not be set higher than that there is at least 95% probability that SSB isabove B  JNRFC(2016),ICES(2023)F    Basis of the assessmentTable 5. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Basis of the assessment and advice.ICES stockdatacategory1 ( ICES, 2021b ).AssessmenttypeModel based on acoustic survey and prediction six months ahead to calculate spawning biomass. Target escapementstrategy used.Input dataNorwegian–Russian acoustic survey in September. Model estimates of maturation based on survey data. Natural mortalitiesfrom multispecies model (predation by immature cod on prespawning capelin based on information on cod distribution,abundance and stomach content data) .Discardsand bycatch All catches are assumed to be landed. The amount of bycaught capelin in other fisheries is very low.Indicators None.Otherinformation Latest benchmark was in 2022 (ICES, 2023).Workinggroup Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).History of the advice, catch, and managementTable 6. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Advice, agreed TAC, and catch. Allweights are in tonnes.Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catch1987 Catches at the lowest practical level 0 0 01988 No catch 0 0 01989 No catch 0 0 01990 No catch 0 0 01991 TAC 1000000 900000 9330001992 SSB > 400 000–500000 t 834000 1100000 11230001993 A cautious approach, SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 600000 630000 586000triggerMSYlim1990palimpaescapementescapement.mgtAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )8/141994 No fishing 0 0 01995 No fishing 0 0 01996 No fishing 0 0 01997 No fishing 0 0 10001998 No fishing 0 0 30001999 SSB > 500 000 t 79000 80000 1010002000 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 435000 435000 4140002001 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 630000 630000 5680002002 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 650000 650000 6510002003 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 310000 310000 2820002004 No fishing 0 0 02005 No fishing 0 0 1000*2006 No fishing 0 0 02007 No fishing 0 0 4000*2008 No fishing 0 0 12000*2009 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 390000 390000 3070002010 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 360000 360000 3230002011 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 380000 380000 3600002012 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 320000 320000 2960002013 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 200000 200000 1770002014 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 65000 65000 660002015 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 6000 120000 1150002016 Zero catch 0 0 02017 Zero catch 0 0 02018 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 205000 205000 1945202019 Zero catch 0 0 ** 53*2020 Management plan 0 0** 31*2021 Management plan 0 0** 10*2022 Management plan ≤ 70000 70000 65246***2023 Management plan *** ≤ 62000*** 62000 60692***2024 Management plan *** ≤ 196000***   Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catch* Research catch and bycatches in other fisheries.** Up to 500 tonnes was allowed for research survey catches.*** In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on ArcticFisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches and gave advice.History of catch and landingsTable 7. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The history of official catches is presentedfor each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )9/14YearWinter Summer–AutumnYear totalNorway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total1965 217000 7000 0 224000 0 0 0 2240001966 380000 9000 0 389000 0 0 0 3890001967 403000 6000 0 409000 0 0 0 4090001968 460000 15000 0 475000 62000 0 62000 5370001969 436000 1000 0 437000 243000 0 243000 6800001970 955000 8000 0 963000 346000 5000 351000 13140001971 1300000 14000 0 1314000 71000 7000 78000 13920001972 1208000 24000 0 1232000 347000 13000 360000 15910001973 1078000 34000 0 1112000 213000 12000 225000 13370001974 749000 63000 0 812000 237000 99000 336000 11480001975 559000 301000 43000 903000 407000 131000 538000 14410001976 1252000 228000 0 1480000 739000 368000 1107000 25870001977 1441000 317000 2000 1760000 722000 504000 1226000 29860001978 784000 429000 25000 1238000 360000 318000 678000 19160001979 539000 342000 5000 886000 570000 326000 896000 17820001980 539000 253000 9000 801000 459000 388000 847000 16480001981 784000 429000 28000 1241000 454000 292000 746000 19860001982 568000 260000 5000 833000 591000 336000 927000 17600001983 751000 373000 36000 1160000 758000 439000 1197000 23570001984 330000 257000 42000 629000 481000 368000 849000 14770001985 340000 234000 17000 591000 113000 164000 277000 8680001986 72000 51000 0 123000 0 0 0 1230001987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01991 528000 159000 20000 707000 31000 195000 226000 9330001992 620000 247000 24000 891000 73000 159000 232000 11230001993 402000 170000 14000 586000 0 0 0 5860001994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01997 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 10001998 0 2000 0 2000 0 1000 1000 30001999 50000 33000 0 83000 0 22000 22000 1050002000 279000 94000 8000 381000 0 29000 29000 4100002001 376000 180000 8000 564000 0 14000 14000 5780002002 398000 228000 17000 643000 0 16000 16000 659000Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )10/142003 180000 93000 9000 282000 0 0 0 2820002004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02005 1000 0 0 1000 0 0 0 10002006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02007 2000 2000 0 4000 0 0 0 40002008 5000 5000 0 10000 0 2000 2000 120002009 233000 73000 0 306000 0 1000 1000 3070002010 246000 77000 0 323000 0 0 0 3230002011 273000 87000 0 360000 0 0 0 3600002012 228000 68000 0 296000 0 0 0 2960002013 116000 60000 0 177000 0 0 0 1770002014 40000 26000 0 66000 0 0 0 660002015 71000 44000 0 115000 0 0 0 1150002016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02018 128520 66000 0 194520 0 0 0 1945202019 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 532020 9 0 0 9 0 21 0 312021 2 0 0 2 0 8 0 102022 42597 22646 0 65243 0 3* 3* 65246*2023 37652 23040 0 60692     YearWinter Summer–AutumnYear totalNorway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total* Bycatch in other fisheries; values are preliminary.Summary of the assessmentTable 8. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assessment summary. Weights are intonnes, recruitment in thousands. Recruitment and stock biomass in 1985 and earlier are survey estimates, back-calculated to1 August (before the autumn fishing season); from 1986 and later, these values are based on the survey estimates with no back-calculation. Maturing biomass is the survey estimate of fish above the length-at-maturity (14 cm). Predicted SSB is the modelledstochastic spawning-stock biomass (after the winter fishery)YearPredicted SSB assuming catch = advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acousticsurvey, 1 OctoberStock biomass from autumnacoustic survey, 1 OctoberCatchMedian 5thpercentile95thpercentile Immature Maturing biomasstonnes Age 1, thousands tonnes1972     3873000 2727000 15910001973     3794000 1350000 13370001974     4826000 907000 11480001975     4890000 2916000 14410001976     3217000 3200000 25870001977     2120000 2676000 29860001978     2845000 1402000 1916000Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )11/141979     2935000 1227000 17820001980     2802000 3913000 16480001981    402600000 2344000 1551000 19860001982    528300000 2188000 1591000 17600001983    514900000 2901000 1329000 23570001984    154800000 1756000 1208000 14770001985    38700000 575000 285000 8680001986    6000000 55000 65000 1230001987    37600000 84000 17000 01988    21000000 228000 200000 01989 84000   189200000 689000 175000 01990 92000   700400000 3214000 2617000 01991 643000   402100000 5039000 2248000 9330001992 302000   351300000 2922000 2228000 11230001993 293000   2200000 466000 330000 5860001994 139000   19800000 106000 94000 01995 60000   7100000 75000 118000 01996 60000   81900000 255000 248000 01997 85000   98900000 597000 312000 10001998 94000   179000000 1124000 932000 30001999 382000   156000000 1057000 1718000 1050002000 599000   449200000 2175000 2098000 4100002001 626000   113600000 1611000 2019000 5780002002 496000   59700000 919000 1291000 6590002003 427000   82400000 253000 280000 2820002004 94000   606 00000 289000 224000 02005 122000   1 6900000 139000 348000 10002006 72000   51400000 288000 348000 02007 189000   194900000 970000 846000 40002008 330000   289200000 1765000 2185000 120002009 517000   171800000 1355000 1892000 3070002010 504000   241900000 1576000 2248000 3230002011 487000   193900000 1545000 2059000 3600002012 504000   174500000 1461000 1996000 2960002013 479000   321100000 2248000 1725000 1770002014 399000   102700000 904000 785000 66000YearPredicted SSB assuming catch = advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acousticsurvey, 1 OctoberStock biomass from autumnacoustic survey, 1 OctoberCatchMedian 5thpercentile95thpercentile Immature Maturing biomasstonnes Age 1, thousands tonnesAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )12/142015 504000   39000000 448000 434000 1150002016 82000   32600000 164000 153000 02017 37000   115300000 881000 1547000 02018 462000 200000 930000 58700000 541000 1100000 1945202019 317000 168282 613733 17900000 111000 302000 532020 85110 38830 171850 369700000 1348000 542000 312021 156376 75197 314559 222200000 2527000 1459000 102022 423751 201897 838670 75460000* 1357000 817000 652462023 534000 201000 1250000 108509000 1666000 1286000 606922024 590000 201000 1011000     YearPredicted SSB assuming catch = advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acousticsurvey, 1 OctoberStock biomass from autumnacoustic survey, 1 OctoberCatchMedian 5thpercentile95thpercentile Immature Maturing biomasstonnes Age 1, thousands tonnes*Not adjusted for incomplete survey coverage.ReferencesAnon. 2023a . Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO report series 7 -2023, 189 pp.Anon. 2023b. Report of capelin assessment by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO report series 8-2023.ICES. 2001. Barents Sea capelin (Subareas I and II, excluding Division IIa west of 5°W). In Report of the AdvisoryCommittee on Fishery Management, 2001, Part 1, Section 3.1.8, pp. 65–70. ICES Cooperative Research Report No.246. 921 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5383.ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Arctic Stocks (WKARCT), 26–30 January 2015, Copenhagen,Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 126 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295.ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddockand Barents Sea capelin, 25–28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47. 76 pp.https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5296.ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp.https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, Annex 12.Translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages ofthe Commission (Norwegian and Russian) at https://www.jointfish.com/content/download/501/6352/file/46-norsk.pdf(Norwegian) and https://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf (Russian).Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )13/14Institute of Marine Research – IMR Polar branch of the FSBSI “VINRO” (“PINRO”)

Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024 — ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024 — ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

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