Population screening for colorectal cancer: the implications of an ageing population

Population screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) has recently commenced in the United Kingdom supported by the evidence of a number of randomised trials and pilot studies. Certain factors are known to influence screening cost-effectiveness (e.g. compliance), but it remains unclear whether an ageing population (i.e. demographic change) might also have an effect. The aim of this study was to simulate a population-based screening setting using a Markov model and assess the effect of increasing life expectancy on CRC screening cost-effectiveness. A Markov model was constructed that aimed, using a cohort simulation, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening in an England and Wales population for two timescales: 2003 (early cohort) and 2033 (late cohort). Four model outcomes were calculated; screened and non-screened cohorts in 2003 and 2033. The screened cohort of men and women aged 60 years were offered biennial unhydrated faecal occult blood testing until the age of 69 years. Life expectancy was assumed to increase by 2.5 years per decade. There were 407 552 fewer people entering the model in the 2033 model due to a lower birth cohort, and population screening saw 30 345 fewer CRC-related deaths over the 50 years of the model. Screening the 2033 cohort cost £96 million with cost savings of £43 million in terms of detection and treatment and £28 million in palliative care costs. After 30 years of follow-up, the cost per life year saved was £1544. An identical screening programme in an early cohort (2003) saw a cost per life year saved of £1651. Population screening for CRC is costly but enables cost savings in certain areas and a considerable reduction in mortality from CRC. This Markov simulation suggests that the cost-effectiveness of population screening for CRC in the United Kingdom may actually be improved by rising life expectancies

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. METHODS: The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. RESULTS: The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients

First measurement of the |t|-dependence of coherent J/ψ photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/ψ photoproduction as a function of |t|, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair sNN=5.02TeV with the J/ψ produced in the central rapidity region |y|<0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-x range (0.3−1.4)×10−3. The measured |t|-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky–Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken-x.publishedVersio

Social jetlag, obesity and metabolic disorder: Investigation in a cohort study.

Background: Obesity is one of the leading causes of preventable death worldwide. Circadian rhythms are known to control both sleep timing and energy homeostasis, and disruptions in circadian rhythms have been linked with metabolic dysfunction and obesity-associated disease. In previous research, social jetlag, a measure of chronic circadian disruption caused by the discrepancy between our internal versus social clocks, was associated with elevated self-reported body mass index, possibly indicative of a more generalized association with obesity and metabolic dysfunction. Methods: We studied participants from the population-representative Dunedin Longitudinal Study (N=1037) to determine whether social jetlag was associated with clinically assessed measurements of metabolic phenotypes and disease indicators for obesity-related disease, specifically, indicators of inflammation and diabetes. Results: Our analysis was restricted to N=815 non-shift workers in our cohort. Among these participants, we found that social jetlag was associated with numerous clinically assessed measures of metabolic dysfunction and obesity. We distinguished between obese individuals who were metabolically healthy versus unhealthy, and found higher social jetlag levels in metabolically unhealthy obese individuals. Among metabolically unhealthy obese individuals, social jetlag was additionally associated with elevated glycated hemoglobin and an indicator of inflammation. Conclusions: The findings are consistent with the possibility that ‘living against our internal clock’ may contribute to metabolic dysfunction and its consequences. Further research aimed at understanding that the physiology and social features of social jetlag may inform obesity prevention and have ramifications for policies and practices that contribute to increased social jetlag, such as work schedules and daylight savings time

Flow Dominance and Factorization of Transverse Momentum Correlations in Pb-Pb Collisions at the LHC

We present the first measurement of the two-particle transverse momentum differential correlation function, P2≡ ΔpTΔpT/ pT2, in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV. Results for P2 are reported as a function of the relative pseudorapidity (Δη) and azimuthal angle (Δφ) between two particles for different collision centralities. The Δφ dependence is found to be largely independent of Δη for |Δη|≥0.9. In the 5% most central Pb-Pb collisions, the two-particle transverse momentum correlation function exhibits a clear double-hump structure around Δφ=π (i.e., on the away side), which is not observed in number correlations in the same centrality range, and thus provides an indication of the dominance of triangular flow in this collision centrality. Fourier decompositions of P2, studied as a function of the collision centrality, show that correlations at |Δη|≥0.9 can be well reproduced by a flow ansatz based on the notion that measured transverse momentum correlations are strictly determined by the collective motion of the system

K*(892)(0) and phi(1020)meson production at high transverse momentum in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at root sNN=2.76 TeV

The production of K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons in proton-proton (pp) and lead-lead (Pb-Pb) collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV has been analyzed using a high luminosity data sample accumulated in 2011 with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Transverse momentum (pT) spectra have been measured for K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons via their hadronic decay channels for pT up to 20 GeV/c. The measurements in pp collisions have been compared to model calculations and used to determine the nuclear modification factor and particle ratios. The K∗(892)0/K ratio exhibits significant reduction from pp to central Pb-Pb collisions, consistent with the suppression of the K∗(892)0 yield at low pT due to rescattering of its decay products in the hadronic phase. In central Pb-Pb collisions the pT dependent φ(1020)/π and K∗(892)0/π ratios show an enhancement over pp collisions for pT ≈ 3 GeV/c, consistent with previous observations of strong radial flow. At high pT, particle ratios in Pb-Pb collisions are similar to those measured in pp collisions. In central Pb-Pb collisions, the production of K∗(892)0 and φ(1020) mesons is suppressed for pT &gt; 8 GeV/c. This suppression is similar to that of charged pions, kaons, and protons, indicating that the suppression does not depend on particle mass or flavor in the light quark sector