Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome–free survival after lung transplantation: an International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Thoracic Transplant Registry analysis

BACKGROUND: Lung transplant (LTx) recipients have low long-term survival and a high incidence of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). However, few long-term, multicenter, and precise estimates of BOS-free survival (a composite outcome of death or BOS) incidence exist. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study of primary LTx recipients (1994–2011) reported to the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation Thoracic Transplant Registry assessed outcomes through 2012. For the composite primary outcome of BOS-free survival, we used Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazards regression, censoring for loss to follow-up, end of study, and re-LTx. Although standard Thoracic Transplant Registry analyses censor at the last consecutive annual complete BOS status report, our analyses allowed for partially missing BOS data. RESULTS: Due to BOS reporting standards, 99.1% of the cohort received LTx in North America. During 79,896 person-years of follow-up, single LTx (6,599 of 15,268 [43%]) and bilateral LTx (8,699 of 15,268 [57%]) recipients had a median BOS-free survival of 3.16 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.99–3.30 years) and 3.58 years (95% CI, 3.53–3.72 years), respectively. Almost 90% of the single and bilateral LTx recipients developed the composite outcome within 10 years of transplantation. Standard Registry analyses “overestimated” median BOS-free survival by 0.42 years and “underestimated” the median survival after BOS by about a half-year for both single and bilateral LTx (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Most LTx recipients die or develop BOS within 4 years, and very few remain alive and free from BOS at 10 years post-LTx. Less inclusive Thoracic Transplant Registry analytic methods tend to overestimate BOS-free survival. The Registry would benefit from improved international reporting of BOS and other chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) events

Use of targeted therapies for advanced renal cell carcinoma in the Veterans Health Administration

BackgroundThe objective of this study is to describe the use of targeted therapies for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and overall survival (OS) among patients in clinical practice in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA).MethodsA retrospective cohort of 286 patients from 24 VHA Medical Centers diagnosed with advanced clear cell RCC between Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 and FY2014 was followed through September 30, 2016. Among patients who received targeted therapy, we described the medications taken, duration of therapy, and overall survival. We also assessed the effect of the first therapy received on overall survival using Cox Proportional Hazards models.ResultsThere were 66 patients who did not receive therapy for their advanced RCC. Of the 220 treated patients, the mean (sd) number of medications received was 1.9 (1.1). The medications most commonly used first were sunitinib (61.8%), pazopanib (17.3%), and temsirolimus (10.9%). The median duration of first-line therapy was 86&nbsp;days (interquartile range [IQR] 42, 210). Median total duration of therapy was 159&nbsp;days (IQR 58, 397). 62.3% of patients had&nbsp;≥&nbsp;1 dose of therapy held or reduced, mainly due to an adverse drug event (ADE). Median survival from the start of treatment to death was 1.08&nbsp;years (IQR 0.80, 1.31). Finally, receipt of temsirolimus vs sunitinib (HR 1.95 [95%CI 1.09,3.47]) as the first targeted therapy was independently associated with an increased hazard of death.ConclusionOur analysis of targeted therapies for advanced RCC in VHA suggests duration of treatment is shorter in a real-world setting than in clinical trials, and dose reductions and ADEs are more common

Appendicitis risk prediction models in children presenting with right iliac fossa pain (RIFT study): a prospective, multicentre validation study.

Background Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical emergency in children. Differentiation of acute appendicitis from conditions that do not require operative management can be challenging in children. This study aimed to identify the optimum risk prediction model to stratify acute appendicitis risk in children. Methods We did a rapid review to identify acute appendicitis risk prediction models. A prospective, multicentre cohort study was then done to evaluate performance of these models. Children (aged 5\u201315 years) presenting with acute right iliac fossa pain in the UK and Ireland were included. For each model, score cutoff thresholds were systematically varied to identify the best achievable specificity while maintaining a failure rate (ie, proportion of patients identified as low risk who had acute appendicitis) less than 5%. The normal appendicectomy rate was the proportion of resected appendixes found to be normal on histopathological examination. Findings 15 risk prediction models were identified that could be assessed. The cohort study enrolled 1827 children from 139 centres, of whom 630 (34\ub75%) underwent appendicectomy. The normal appendicectomy rate was 15\ub79% (100 of 630 patients). The Shera score was the best performing model, with an area under the curve of 0\ub784 (95% CI 0\ub782\u20130\ub786). Applying score cutoffs of 3 points or lower for children aged 5\u201310 years and girls aged 11\u201315 years, and 2 points or lower for boys aged 11\u201315 years, the failure rate was 3\ub73% (95% CI 2\ub70\u20135\ub72; 18 of 539 patients), specificity was 44\ub73% (95% CI 41\ub74\u201347\ub72; 521 of 1176), and positive predictive value was 41\ub74% (38\ub75\u201344\ub74; 463 of 1118). Positive predictive value for the Shera score with a cutoff of 6 points or lower (72\ub76%, 67\ub74\u201377\ub74) was similar to that of ultrasound scan (75\ub70%, 65\ub73\u201383\ub71). Interpretation The Shera score has the potential to identify a large group of children at low risk of acute appendicitis who could be considered for early discharge. Risk scoring does not identify children who should proceed directly to surgery. Medium-risk and high-risk children should undergo routine preoperative ultrasound imaging by operators trained to assess for acute appendicitis, and MRI or low-dose CT if uncertainty remains. Funding None