Unemployment expectations in an agent-based model with education

Why are unemployment expectations of the “man in the street” markedly different from professional forecasts? We present an agent-based model to explain this deep disconnection using boundedly rational agents with different levels of education. A good fit of empirical data is obtained under the assumptions that there is staggered update of information, agents update episodically their estimate and there is a fraction of households who always and stubbornly forecast that the unemployment is going to raise. The model also sheds light on the role of education and suggests that more educated agents update their information more often and less obstinately fixate on the worst possible forecast

Depression in multicultural Australia: Policies, research and services

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the leading causes of disability in Australia. The cultural and linguistic diversity of the Australian population poses a significant challenge to health policy development, service provision, professional education, and research. The purpose of this study is to explore the extent to which the fact of cultural and linguistic diversity has influenced the formulation of mental health policy, the conduct of mental health research and the development of mental health services for people with depression from ethnic minority communities. METHODS: The methods used for the different components of the study included surveys and document-based content and thematic analyses. RESULTS: Policy is comprehensive but its translation into programs is inadequate. Across Australia, there were few specific programs on depression in ethnic minority communities and they are confronted with a variety of implementation difficulties. The scope and scale of research on depression in Ethnic minority communities is extremely limited. CONCLUSION: A key problem is that the research that is necessary to provide evidence for policy and service delivery is lacking. If depression in Ethnic minority communities is to be addressed effectively the gaps between policy intentions and policy implementation, and between information needs for policies and practice and the actual research that is being done, have to be narrowed

Cheating the locals: invasive mussels steal and benefit from the cooling effect of indigenous mussels

The indigenous South African mussel Perna perna gapes during periods of aerial exposure to maintain aerobic respiration. This behaviour has no effect on the body temperatures of isolated individuals, but when surrounded by conspecifics, beneficial cooling effects of gaping emerge. It is uncertain, however, whether the presence of the invasive mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis limits the ability of P. perna for collective thermoregulation. We investigated whether varying densities of P. perna and M. galloprovincialis influences the thermal properties of both natural and artificial mussel beds during periods of emersion. Using infrared thermography, body temperatures of P. perna within mixed artificial beds were shown to increase faster and reach higher temperatures than individuals in conspecific beds, indicating that the presence of M. galloprovincialis limits the group cooling effects of gaping. In contrast, body temperatures of M. galloprovincialis within mixed artificial mussel beds increased slower and exhibited lower temperatures than for individuals in beds comprised entirely of M. galloprovincialis. Interestingly, differences in bed temperatures and heating rates were largely dependent on the size of mussels, with beds comprised of larger individuals experiencing less thermal stress irrespective of species composition. The small-scale patterns of thermal stress detected within manipulated beds were not observed within naturally occurring mixed mussel beds. We propose that small-scale differences in topography, size-structure, mussel bed size and the presence of organisms encrusting the mussel shells mask the effects of gaping behaviour within natural mussel beds. Nevertheless, the results from our manipulative experiment indicate that the invasive species M. galloprovincialis steals thermal properties as well as resources from the indigenous mussel P. perna. This may have significant implications for predicting how the co-existence of these two species may change as global temperatures continue to rise

Patchiness and Co-Existence of Indigenous and Invasive Mussels at Small Spatial Scales: The Interaction of Facilitation and Competition

Ecological theory predicts that two species with similar requirements will fail to show long-term co-existence in situations where shared resources are limiting, especially at spatial scales that are small relative to the size of the organisms. Two species of intertidal mussels, the indigenous Perna perna and the invasive Mytilus galloprovincialis, form mixed beds on the south coast of South Africa in a situation that has been stable for several generations of these species, even though these populations are often limited by the availability of space. We examined the spatial structure of these species where they co-exist at small spatial scales in the absence of apparent environmental heterogeneity at two sites, testing: whether conspecific aggregation of mussels can occur (using spatial Monte-Carlo tests); the degree of patchiness (using Korcak B patchiness exponent), and whether there was a relationship between percent cover and patchiness. We found that under certain circumstances there is non-random conspecific aggregation, but that in other circumstances there may be random distribution (i.e. the two species are mixed), so that spatial patterns are context-dependent. The relative cover of the species differed between sites, and within each site, the species with higher cover showed low Korcak B values (indicating low patchiness, i.e. the existence of fewer, larger patches), while the less abundant species showed the reverse, i.e. high patchiness. This relationship did not hold for either species within sites. We conclude that co-existence between these mussels is possible, even at small spatial scales because each species is an ecological engineer and, while they have been shown to compete for space, this is preceded by initial facilitation. We suggest that a patchy pattern of co-existence is possible because of a balance between direct (competitive) and indirect (facilitative) interactions

Microvertebrates preserved in mammal burrows from the Holocene of the Argentine Pampas: a taphonomic and paleoecological approach

Microvertebrates are a major component of many assemblages recovered from the Quaternary of the Argentine Pampas. The main goal of this paper is to analyse the taphonomic history of a Holocene microfossil bonebed, recovered from the infilling of a burrow. Evidences suggest the plains vizcacha Lagostomus maximus as the putative producer of the burrow. The assemblage includes individuals belonging to different taxa of mammals (marsupials and rodents) and reptiles (snakes). Taphonomic features suggest that the accumulation inside the burrow was related to flooding processes in the plain. The burrow was a natural trap that favoured the accumulation and preservation of remains corresponding to individuals from different sources. According to the taphonomic evidence, some individuals (Lagostomus maximus, Lestodelphys halli and Serpentes indet.) died inside the burrow, whereas others (Microcavia australis, Reithrodon auritus and Ctenomys sp.) died outside the burrow, and after a time of being exposed on the surface their remains were transported by surface run-offs into the burrow. The record of Lestodelphys halli and Serpentes indet. in the burrow produced by Lagostomus maximus could be related to a circumstantial use. Mammal burrows are a significant taphonomic mode for the late Cenozoic of the Argentine Pampas

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?

This paper estimates information stickiness with regard to inflation expectations in the United States and the Eurozone for the 1981/06–2015/12 and 1998/Q4–2015/Q2 periods, respectively, and further investigates whether such information stickiness is state- dependent. Based on a bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window estimation, we find that information stickiness varies over time, which contradicts the strict time dependency implied under sticky-information theory. We provide evidence that information stickiness depends on inflation volatility, which indicates that information stickiness is state-dependent and that it has a time trend. Using a threshold model, we estimate structural changes in the state- dependence and time-trend of information stickiness. The results show that information stickiness has been more dependent on inflation volatility and has had a higher time-trend in both regions following the 2008 financial crisis.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Antibodies to Serine Proteases in the Antiphospholipid Syndrome

It is generally accepted that the major autoantigen for antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) in the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is β2-glycoprotein I (β2GPI). However, a recent study has revealed that some aPL bind to certain conformational epitope(s) on β2GPI shared by the homologous enzymatic domains of several serine proteases involved in hemostasis and fibrinolysis. Importantly, some serine protease–reactive aPL correspondingly hinder anticoagulant regulation and resolution of clots. These results extend several early findings of aPL binding to other coagulation factors and provide a new perspective about some aPL in terms of binding specificities and related functional properties in promoting thrombosis. Moreover, a recent immunological and pathological study of a panel of human IgG monoclonal aPL showed that aPL with strong binding to thrombin promote in vivo venous thrombosis and leukocyte adherence, suggesting that aPL reactivity with thrombin may be a good predictor for pathogenic potentials of aPL

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available

A surge of light at the birth of a supernova.

It is difficult to establish the properties of massive stars that explode as supernovae. The electromagnetic emission during the first minutes to hours after the emergence of the shock from the stellar surface conveys important information about the final evolution and structure of the exploding star. However, the unpredictable nature of supernova events hinders the detection of this brief initial phase. Here we report the serendipitous discovery of a newly born, normal type IIb supernova (SN 2016gkg), which reveals a rapid brightening at optical wavelengths of about 40 magnitudes per day. The very frequent sampling of the observations allowed us to study in detail the outermost structure of the progenitor of the supernova and the physics of the emergence of the shock. We develop hydrodynamical models of the explosion that naturally account for the complete evolution of the supernova over distinct phases regulated by different physical processes. This result suggests that it is appropriate to decouple the treatment of the shock propagation from the unknown mechanism that triggers the explosion