Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Spatial Models of Abundance and Habitat Preferences of Commerson’s and Peale’s Dolphin in Southern Patagonian Waters

Funding: This research was possible with the support of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Funding for travel to and accommodation for NAD in Aberdeen, Scotland was provided by CONICET and Cetacean Society International. The work of NAD was part of a postdoctoral fellowship funded by CONICET. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Savjetovanje kod Glavne direkcije za slatkovodno ribarstvo

TAM thanks support by CEAUL (funded by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Project UID/MAT/00006/2013)Many simulation studies have examined the properties of distance sampling estimators of wildlife population size. When assumptions hold, if distances are generated from a detection model and fitted using the same model, they are known to perform well. However, in practice, the true model is unknown. Therefore, standard practice includes model selection, typically using model comparison tools like Akaike Information Criterion. Here we examine the performance of standard distance sampling estimators under model selection. We compare line and point transect estimators with distances simulated from two detection functions, hazard-rate and exponential power series (EPS), over a range of sample sizes. To mimic the real-world context where the true model may not be part of the candidate set, EPS models were not included as candidates, except for the half-normal parameterization. We found median bias depended on sample size (being asymptotically unbiased) and on the form of the true detection function: negative bias (up to 15% for line transects and 30% for point transects) when the shoulder of maximum detectability was narrow, and positive bias (up to 10% for line transects and 15% for point transects) when it was wide. Generating unbiased simulations requires careful choice of detection function or very large datasets. Practitioners should collect data that result in detection functions with a shoulder similar to a half-normal and use the monotonicity constraint. Narrow-shouldered detection functions can be avoided through good field procedures and those with wide shoulder are unlikely to occur, due to heterogeneity in detectability.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Abundance estimation of Ixodes ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)

Despite the importance of roe deer as a host for Ixodes ticks in central Europe, estimates of total tick burden on roe deer are not available to date. We aimed at providing (1) estimates of life stage and sex specific (larvae, nymphs, males and females, hereafter referred to as tick life stages) total Ixodes burden and (2) equations which can be used to predict the total life stage burden by counting the life stage on a selected body area. Within a period of 1½ years, we conducted whole body counts of ticks from 80 hunter-killed roe deer originating from a beech dominated forest area in central Germany. Averaged over the entire study period (winter 2007–summer 2009), the mean tick burden per roe deer was 64.5 (SE ± 10.6). Nymphs were the most numerous tick life stage per roe deer (23.9 ± 3.2), followed by females (21.4 ± 3.5), larvae (10.8 ± 4.2) and males (8.4 ± 1.5). The individual tick burden was highly aggregated (k = 0.46); levels of aggregation were highest in larvae (k = 0.08), followed by males (k = 0.40), females (k = 0.49) and nymphs (k = 0.71). To predict total life stage specific burdens based on counts on selected body parts, we provide linear equations. For estimating larvae abundance on the entire roe deer, counts can be restricted to the front legs. Tick counts restricted to the head are sufficient to estimate total nymph burden and counts on the neck are appropriate for estimating adult ticks (females and males). In order to estimate the combined tick burden, tick counts on the head can be used for extrapolation. The presented linear models are highly significant and explain 84.1, 77.3, 90.5, 91.3, and 65.3% (adjusted R2) of the observed variance, respectively. Thus, these models offer a robust basis for rapid tick abundance assessment. This can be useful for studies aiming at estimating effects of abiotic and biotic factors on tick abundance, modelling tick population dynamics, modelling tick-borne pathogen transmission dynamics or assessing the efficacy of acaricides

Acrolein Induces Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress and Causes Airspace Enlargement

BACKGROUND: Given the relative abundance and toxic potential of acrolein in inhaled cigarette smoke, it is surprising how little is known about the pulmonary and systemic effects of acrolein. Here we test the hypothesis whether systemic administration of acrolein could cause endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, and lung cell apoptosis, leading to the enlargement of the alveolar air spaces in rats. METHODS: Acute and chronic effects of intraperitoneally administered acrolein were tested. Mean alveolar airspace area was measured by using light microscopy and imaging system software. TUNEL staining and immunohistochemistry (IHC) for active caspase 3 and Western blot analysis for active caspase 3, and caspase 12 were performed to detect apoptosis. The ER-stress related gene expression in the lungs was determined by Quantitative real-time PCR analysis. Acrolein-protein adducts in the lung tissue were detected by IHC. RESULTS: Acute administration of acrolein caused a significant elevation of activated caspase 3, upregulation of VEGF expression and induced ER stress proteins in the lung tissue. The chronic administration of acrolein in rats led to emphysematous lung tissue remodeling. TUNEL staining and IHC for cleaved caspase 3 showed a large number of apoptotic septal cells in the acrolein-treated rat lungs. Chronic acrolein administration cause the endoplasmic reticulum stress response manifested by significant upregulation of ATF4, CHOP and GADd34 expression. In smokers with COPD there was a considerable accumulation of acrolein-protein adducts in the inflammatory, airway and vascular cells. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic administration of acrolein causes endoplasmic reticulum stress response, lung cell apoptosis, and chronic administration leads to the enlargement of the alveolar air spaces and emphysema in rats. The substantial accumulation of acrolein-protein adducts in the lungs of COPD patients suggest a role of acrolein in the pathogenesis of emphysema

Analysis of ancestral and functionally relevant CD5 variants in systemic lupus erythematosus patients

OBJECTIVE: CD5 plays a crucial role in autoimmunity and is a well-established genetic risk factor of developing RA. Recently, evidence of positive selection has been provided for the CD5 Pro224-Val471 haplotype in East Asian populations. The aim of the present work was to further analyze the functional relevance of non-synonymous CD5 polymorphisms conforming the ancestral and the newly derived haplotypes (Pro224-Ala471 and Pro224-Val471, respectively) as well as to investigate the potential role of CD5 on the development of SLE and/or SLE nephritis. METHODS: The CD5 SNPs rs2241002 (C/T; Pro224Leu) and rs2229177 (C/T; Ala471Val) were genotyped using TaqMan allelic discrimination assays in a total of 1,324 controls and 681 SLE patients of Spanish origin. In vitro analysis of CD3-mediated T cell proliferative and cytokine response profiles of healthy volunteers homozygous for the above mentioned CD5 haplotypes were also analyzed. RESULTS: T-cell proliferation and cytokine release were significantly increased showing a bias towards to a Th2 profile after CD3 cross-linking of peripheral mononuclear cells from healthy individuals homozygous for the ancestral Pro224-Ala471 (CC) haplotype, compared to the more recently derived Pro224-Val471 (CT). The same allelic combination was statistically associated with Lupus nephritis. CONCLUSION: The ancestral Ala471 CD5 allele confers lymphocyte hyper-responsiveness to TCR/CD3 cross-linking and is associated with nephritis in SLE patients

The pancreas in human type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is considered a disorder whose pathogenesis is autoimmune in origin, a notion drawn in large part from studies of human pancreata performed as far back as the 1960s. While studies of the genetics, epidemiology, and peripheral immunity in T1D have been subject to widespread analysis over the ensuing decades, efforts to understand the disorder through analysis of human pancreata have been far more limited. We have reviewed the published literature pertaining to the pathology of the human pancreas throughout all stages in the natural history of T1D. This effort uncovered a series of findings that challenge many dogmas ascribed to T1D and revealed data suggesting the marked heterogeneity in terms of its pathology. An improved understanding and appreciation for pancreatic pathology in T1D could lead to improved disease classification, an understanding of why the disorder occurs, and better therapies for disease prevention and management

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival