A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This article proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced-form models to produce a model combination based credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced-form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names

Tests of the nature and of the gluon content of the \sigma(0.6) from D and D_{s} semileptonic decays

We summarize the different features which show that QCD spectral sum rule analyses of the scalar two- and three-point functions do not favour the $\bar uu+\bar dd$ interpretation of the broad and low mass $\sigma (0.6)$ and emphasize that a measurement of the $D_s$ semileptonic decays into $\pi\pi$ can reveal in a model-independent way its eventual gluon component $\sigma_B$. The analysis also implies that one expects an observation of the $K\bar K$ final states from the $\sigma_B$ which may compete (if phase space allowed) with the one from a low mass $\bar ss$ state assumed in the literature to be the SU(3) partner of the observed $\sigma (0.6)$ if the latter is a $\bar uu+\bar dd$ stateComment: 6 pages latex file. 4 fig.ep

Changes in Cataplexy Frequency in a Clinical Trial of Lower-Sodium Oxybate with Taper and Discontinuation of Other Anticataplectic Medications

Correction:Background Lower-sodium oxybate (LXB) is an oxybate medication with the same active moiety as sodium oxybate (SXB) and a unique composition of cations, resulting in 92% less sodium. LXB was shown to improve cataplexy and excessive daytime sleepiness in people with narcolepsy in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized withdrawal study (NCT03030599). Additional analyses of data from this study were conducted to explore the effects of LXB on cataplexy, including the clinical course and feasibility of transition from other anticataplectics to LXB monotherapy. Objective The aim of these analyses was to evaluate cataplexy frequency during initiation/optimization of LXB and taper/discontinuation of prior antidepressant/anticataplectic medications. Methods Eligible participants (adults aged 18-70 years with narcolepsy with cataplexy) entered the study taking SXB only (group A), SXB + other anticataplectics (group B), or anticataplectic medication other than SXB (group C), or were cataplexy-treatment naive (group D). LXB was initiated/optimized during a 12-week, open-label, optimized treatment and titration period (OLOTTP). Other anticataplectics were tapered/discontinued during weeks 3-10 of OLOTTP. A 2-week stable-dose period (SDP; during which participants took a stable dose of open-label LXB) and 2-week double-blind randomized withdrawal period (during which participants were randomized to continue LXB treatment or switch to placebo) followed OLOTTP. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were recorded throughout the duration of the study. Results At the beginning of OLOTTP, median weekly cataplexy attacks were lower in participants taking SXB at study entry (SXB only [2.00]; SXB + other anticataplectics [0.58]) versus participants who were taking other anticataplectics (3.50) or were anticataplectic naive (5.83). Median weekly cataplexy attacks decreased during weeks 1-2 of OLOTTP in all groups. Increased cataplexy frequency was observed in participants tapering/discontinuing other anticataplectics during weeks 3-10 and was more prominent in participants taking other anticataplectics alone compared with those taking SXB plus other anticataplectics. Cataplexy frequency decreased throughout initiation/optimization in anticataplectic-naive participants. Median number of cataplexy-free days/week at the end of SDP (study week 14) was similar in all groups (6.0, 6.1, 6.0, and 6.2 in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively). During OLOTTP and SDP, TEAEs of worsening cataplexy were reported in 0%, 47.8%, 16.7%, and 2.2% of participants in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively; most TEAEs of worsening cataplexy were reported during tapering/discontinuation of other anticataplectics. Conclusions LXB monotherapy was effective in reducing cataplexy and increasing cataplexy-free days. These results illustrate the feasibility of switching from SXB to LXB while tapering/discontinuing other anticataplectics.Peer reviewe

The foot in forensic human identification - a review

The identification of human remains is a process which can be attempted irrespective of the stage of decomposition in which the remains are found or the anatomical regions recovered. In recent years, the discovery of fragmented human remains has garnered significant attention from the national and international media, particularly the recovery of multiple lower limbs and feet from coastlines in North America. While cases such as these stimulate public curiosity, they present unique challenges to forensic practitioners in relation to the identification of the individual from whom the body part originated. There is a paucity of literature pertaining to the foot in forensic human identification and in particular, in relation to the assessment of the parameters represented by the biological profile. This article presents a review of the literature relating to the role of the foot in forensic human identification and highlights the areas in which greater research is required. © 2013

The Complexity of Computing Minimal Unidirectional Covering Sets

Given a binary dominance relation on a set of alternatives, a common thread in the social sciences is to identify subsets of alternatives that satisfy certain notions of stability. Examples can be found in areas as diverse as voting theory, game theory, and argumentation theory. Brandt and Fischer [BF08] proved that it is NP-hard to decide whether an alternative is contained in some inclusion-minimal upward or downward covering set. For both problems, we raise this lower bound to the Theta_{2}^{p} level of the polynomial hierarchy and provide a Sigma_{2}^{p} upper bound. Relatedly, we show that a variety of other natural problems regarding minimal or minimum-size covering sets are hard or complete for either of NP, coNP, and Theta_{2}^{p}. An important consequence of our results is that neither minimal upward nor minimal downward covering sets (even when guaranteed to exist) can be computed in polynomial time unless P=NP. This sharply contrasts with Brandt and Fischer's result that minimal bidirectional covering sets (i.e., sets that are both minimal upward and minimal downward covering sets) are polynomial-time computable.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figure

Relapse and regression to severe wasting in children under 5 years: A theoretical framework.

Systematic reviews have highlighted that repeated severe wasting after receiving treatment is likely to be common, but standardised measurement is needed urgently. The Council of Research & Technical Advice for Acute Malnutrition (CORTASAM) released recommendations on standard measurement of relapse (wasting within 6 months after exiting treatment as per recommended discharge criteria), regression (wasting within 6 months after exiting treatment before reaching recommended discharge criteria) and reoccurrence (wasting after 6 months of exit from treatment as per recommended discharge criteria). We provide a theoretical framework of post-treatment relapse and regression to severe wasting to guide discussions, risk factor analyses, and development and evaluations of interventions. This framework highlights that there are factors that may impact risk of relapse and regression in addition to the impact of contextual factors associated with incidence and reoccurrence of severe wasting more generally. Factors hypothesised to be associated with relapse and regression relate specifically to the nutrition and health status of the child on admission to, during and exit from treatment and treatment interventions, platforms and approaches as well as type of exit from treatment (e.g., before reaching recommended criteria). These factors influence whether children reach full recovery, and poorer nutritional and immunological status at exit from treatment are more proximate determinants of risk of severe wasting after treatment, although post-treatment interventions may modify risks. The evidence base for many of these factors is weak. Our framework can guide research to improve our understanding of risks of relapse and regression and how to prevent them and inform programmes on what data to collect to evaluate relapse. Implementation research is needed to operationalise results in programmes and reduce post-treatment severe wasting at scale

Variables affecting the probability of complete fusion of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In this study, we have combined data on clavicle fusion from different studies and applied a binomial logistic regression analysis. As such, we aimed to assess whether or not variables such as sex, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity influence the probability of having mature, i.e., completely fused clavicles at a given age. We further explored whether the method of clavicle examination, i.e., diagnosis from either a dry bone specimen, an examination of X-rays, or an examination of computed tomography scans, affects the probability of being diagnosed with mature clavicles. It appeared that only ethnicity did not significantly affect this probability. Finally, we illustrated how the logit model may be used to predict the probability of being diagnosed with mature clavicles

Provenance of the Early Mesoproterozoic Radium Creek Group in the northern Mount Painter Inlier: Correlating isotopic signatures to inform tectonic reconstructions

New in situ zircon LA-ICPMS geochronologic and Hf-isotope data from the Radium Creek Group within the Mount Painter Inlier provide important temporal constraints on the Early Mesoproterozoic palaeogeography of eastern Proterozoic Australia. The entire Radium Creek Group was deposited in a single basin forming phase, and has a maximum depositional age of 1595. ±. 3.7. Ma. Detrital zircon from these metasedimentary rocks have U-Pb age populations at ca. 1595. Ma, 1660-1680. Ma, 1710-1780. Ma, ca. 1850. Ma and ca. 2500. Ma. These grains are characterised by isotopically diverse and evolved sources, and have crystallised within predominantly felsic igneous host-rocks. The relative age spectra and isotopic character has more similarity with the Gawler Craton than the Arunta Block, Curnamona Province or the Mount Isa Inlier. These observations suggest that the Mount Painter Province was adjacent to the Gawler Craton in the Early Mesoproterozoic. Our data supports a coherent South Australian Craton at ca. 1595. Ma and a contiguous continental mass that included the North and South Australian cratons. The Mount Painter Inlier occupied a complex plate tectonic setting in the overriding plate of two convergent margins. © 2014 Elsevier B.V

The people behind the samples : Biographical features of Past Hunter- Gatherers from KwaZulu-Natal who yielded aDNA

Abstract: Purpose: Skeletons sampled for ancient human DNA analysis are sometimes complete enough to provide information about the lives of the people they represent. We focus on three Later Stone Age skeletons, ca. 2000 B.P., from coastal KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, whose ancient genomes have been sequenced (Schlebusch et al., 2017). Methods: Bioarchaeological approaches are integrated with aDNA information. Results: All skeletons are male. Dental development shows that the boy, with prominent cribra orbitalia, died at age 6–7 years. Two men show cranial and spinal trauma, extensive tooth wear, plus mild cribra orbitalia in one. Conclusions: Dental wear and trauma of the adults are consistent with hunter-gatherer lives. Even partial aDNA evidence contributes to sex determination. Parasitic infection such as schistosomiasis is the best-fit cause for the child’s anemia in this case. Contribution to knowledge: The convergence of genomic and bioarchaeological approaches expands our knowledge of the past lives of a boy and two men whose lives as hunter-gatherers included episodes of trauma and disease. Limitations: The skeletons are incomplete, in variable condition, and from poorly characterized local cultural contexts. Suggestions for further research: Thorough osteobiographic analysis should accompany paleogenomic investigations. Such disciplinary collaboration enriches our understanding of the human past