Climate change and health

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Health-related quality of life of patients before and after treatment

Neðst á síðunni er hægt að nálgast greinina í heild sinni með því að smella á hlekkinn View/OpenObjective: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is increasingly used to estimate needs for medical treatment, to evaluate its outcome and quality of care. The aim of this study was to compare the HRQL of several diagnostic groups before and after treatment with the HL-test (HL = IQL, Icelandic Quality of Life test) and to study its validity for measuring changes in quality of life. Material and methods: Patients on waiting lists for coronary catheterization, orthopedic or urologic operations, patients in psychiatric out-patient treatment and patients entering treatment for alcohol dependence were asked to fill in the HL-test, a total of 1195 patients. Three months after treatment they were retested. The results of tests were standarized with population norms available to make them directly comparable with those of the general population. Results: The response rate was 75% in each round. The HRQL of all patients was reduced in all aspects compared to that of the general population, that of the heart and urology patients less so than that of the orthopedic and psychiatric patients. Each group had a specific profile, especially marked for the orthopedic and psychiatric patients. Following treatment the HRQL or some aspects of it improved in all groups, especially for those which it had been most impaired. Conclusions: Studies of HRQL provide information useful for planning and delivery of health services. The HL-test is an instrument with good validity and reliability which is easy to use for such studies.Tilgangur: Heilsutengd lífsgæði (HL) hafa í vaxandi mæli verið notuð til að meta þörf fyrir læknismeðferð, árangur hennar og gæði umönnunar. Tilgangur rannsóknarinnar var að bera saman heilsutengd lífsgæði nokkurra sjúklingahópa fyrir og eftir meðferð með HL-prófinu og athuga frekar réttmæti þess og getu til að mæla breytingar á líðan fólks. Efniviður og aðferðir: Sjúklingar sem biðu hjartaþræðingar, aðgerða á bæklunar- eða þvagfæraskurðdeild, voru í meðferð á göngudeild geðdeildar eða voru að byrja í meðferð vegna áfengissýki, samtals 1195 sjúklingar, voru beðnir að svara HL-prófinu. Þremur mánuðum eftir meðferð voru þeir beðnir að svara prófinu aftur. Niðurstöður prófanna voru staðlaðar samkvæmt viðmiðum eftir kyni og aldri svo að hægt væri að sjá beint hvernig þær viku frá því sem almennt gerist. Niðurstöður: Heildarsvörun var 75% í hvorri umferð. Allir sjúklingarnir voru með skert lífsgæði á öllum þáttum prófsins miðað við jafnaldra þeirra, hjarta- og þvagfærasjúklingar minna en bæklunar- og geðsjúklingar. Skerðingin var sérkennandi fyrir hvern hóp, sérstaklega aðgreindust bæklunar- og geðsjúklingarnir greinilega hvor frá öðrum og frá hinum. Eftir meðferð bötnuðu lífsgæðin eða einhverjir þættir þeirra hjá öllum hópunum, mest þeir sem höfðu verið lakastir fyrir. Ályktanir: Með rannsóknum á heilsutengdum lífsgæðum er unnt að afla frekari þekkingar sem nýtist við skipulagningu og framkvæmd heilbrigðisþjónustu. HL-prófið er einfalt tæki til slíkra rannsókna, réttmætt og áreiðanlegt

REFIR- a multi-parameter system for near real-time estimates of plume-height and mass eruption rate during explosive eruptions

Meaningful forecasting of the atmospheric concentration and ground accumulation of volcanic ash during explosive eruptions requires detailed knowledge of the eruption source parameters. However, due to the large uncertainties in observations and limitations of current models used to make inferences from these, monitoring an ongoing eruption and quantifying the mass eruption rate in real-time is a considerable challenge. Within the EU supersite project “FutureVolc”, an integrated approach has been applied to develop a quasi-autonomous multi-parameter system, denoted “REFIR”, for monitoring volcanic eruptions in Iceland and assessing the eruption mass flow rate by inverting the plume height information and taking account of these uncertainties. REFIR has the capability to ingest and process streaming plume-height data provided by a multitude of ground based sensors, including C– and X-band radars and web-cam based plume height tracking systems. These observational data are used with a suite of plume models that also consider the current wind and other atmospheric conditions, providing statistically assessed best estimates of plume height and mass eruption rate. Provided instrumental data is available, near real-time estimates are obtained (the delay corresponding to the scan rate of data-providing instruments, presently of the order of minutes). Using the Hekla 2000, and Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions in Iceland, the potential of REFIR is demonstrated and discussed through application to three scenarios. The system has been developed to provide maximum flexibility. A setup script assists the user in adapting to local conditions, allowing implementation of REFIR for any volcanic eruption site worldwide. REFIR is designed to be easily upgradable, allowing future extension of monitoring networks, learning from new events, and incorporation of new technologies and model improvements. This article gives an overview of the basic structure, models implemented, functionalities and the computational techniques of REFIR

The Wind Energy Potential of Iceland

AbstractDownscaling simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to determine the large-scale wind energy potential of Iceland. Local wind speed distributions are represented by Weibull statistics. The shape parameter across Iceland varies between 1.2 and 3.6, with the lowest values indicative of near-exponential distributions at sheltered locations, and the highest values indicative of normal distributions at exposed locations in winter. Compared with summer, average power density in winter is increased throughout Iceland by a factor of 2.0–5.5. In any season, there are also considerable spatial differences in average wind power density. Relative to the average value within 10 km of the coast, power density across Iceland varies between 50 and 250%, excluding glaciers, or between 300 and 1500 W m−2 at 50 m above ground level in winter. At intermediate elevations of 500–1000 m above mean sea level, power density is independent of the distance to the coast. In addition to seasonal and spatial variability, differences in average wind speed and power density also exist for different wind directions. Along the coast in winter, power density of onshore winds is higher by 100–700 W m−2 than that of offshore winds. Based on these results, 14 test sites were selected for more detailed analyses using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP)

The triggering factors of the Móafellshyrna debris slide in northern Iceland: Intense precipitation, earthquake activity and thawing of mountain permafrost

On the 20th September 2012, a large debris slide occurred in the Móafellshyrna Mountain in the Tröllaskagi peninsula, central north Iceland. Our work describes and discusses the relative importance of the three factors that may have contributed to the failure of the slope: intense precipitation, earthquake activity and thawing of ground ice. We use data from weather stations, seismometers, witness reports and field observations to examine these factors. The slide initiated after an unusually warm and dry summer followed by a month of heavy precipitation. Furthermore, the slide occurred after three seismic episodes, whose epicentres were located ~60km NNE of Móafellshyrna Mountain. The main source of material for the slide was ice-rich colluvium perched on a topographic bench. Blocks of ice-cemented colluvium slid and then broke off the frontal part of the talus slope, and the landslide also involved a component of debris slide, which mobilized around 312,000-480,000m(3) (as estimated from field data and aerial images of erosional morphologies). From our analysis we infer that intense precipitation and seismic activity prior to the slide are the main preparatory factors for the slide. The presence of ice-cemented blocks in the slide's deposits leads us to infer that deep thawing of ground ice was likely the final triggering factor. Ice-cemented blocks of debris have been observed in the deposits of two other recent landslides in northern Iceland, in the Torfufell Mountain and the Árnesfjall Mountain. This suggests that discontinuous mountain permafrost is degrading in Iceland, consistent with the decadal trend of increasing atmospheric temperature in Iceland. This study highlights a newly identified hazard in Iceland: landslides as a result of ground ice thaw. Knowledge of the detailed distribution of mountain permafrost in colluvium on the island is poorly constrained and should be a priority for future research in order to identify zones at risk from this hazard

A coupled zonally averaged ocean sea ice atmosphere model with applications to quaternary climate variability /

A zonally averaged coupled atmosphere-ocean model for climate studies is developed. The ocean component is the Wright and Stocker two-dimensional thermohaline circulation (THC) model, and the atmospheric component is a zonally averaged energy-moisture balance model for the atmosphere. Both single- and multi-basin configurations of the model are considered.The results obtained with this coupled model are compared with those from an ocean-only model that employs mixed boundary conditions. The differences in the steady states of the two models and their linear stability are examined over a wide range of parameters, for both one- and two-basin ocean models. The presence of additional feedbacks between the ocean circulation and the atmosphere and hydrological cycle in the coupled model produces significant differences between the latter and the ocean-only model. The two models generally have different (though similar) equilibria, but, more importantly for the issue of climate change, the variability in the models near similar steady states is quite different. These differences indicate that to perform relevant investigations of long-term climatic variability, a coupled model is necessary.Next the coupled model with three-ocean basins is applied to last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. It is found that to achieve realistic results, it is necessary to add a thermodynamic sea ice model into the coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The variability of the LGM conveyor circulation in the coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model is then examined, and the model is subjected to a range of freshwater perturbation experiments. The conveyor state circulation is quite sensitive to the interbasin atmospheric transport of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Pacific. In particular, increasing this transport makes the conveyor state more robust. The LGM model circulation does not exhibit internal century-to-millennial scale variability, nor can the latter be excited by steady freshwater forcing. However, rapid climatic change on a timescale of decades can be generated through transient freshwater forcing of the northern North Atlantic. Perturbations in the ocean circulation are also found to propagate from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean in a few decades. Stochastic, white noise forcing of the model results in a mainly red noise response but also excites a natural mode of THC variability with a timescale of about 150 years

Climate Change and Energy Systems : Impacts, Risks and Adaptation in the Nordic and Baltic countries

Renewable energy sources contribute 16% of the global energy consumption and most nations are working to increase the share of renewables in their total energy budget, to reduce the dependence on fossil fuel sources. Most Nordic and Baltic countries have already surpassed the target set for EU countries by 2020, to produce 20% of energy use from renewables like hydropower, solar energy, wind power, bio-energy, ocean power and geothermal energy. This publication presents results from a comprehensive research project that investigated the effects of projected future climate change on hydropower, wind power and bioenergy in the Nordic and Baltic countries, with focus on the period 2020-2050. The research group investigated historical climate, runoff and forest growth data and produced climate scenarios for the region based on global circulation models. The scenarios were used as input in models forecasting changes in glacial meltwater production, basin-wide runoff, mean wind strength, extreme storm and flooding events and energy biomass production. Although the uncertainty in modelling results translates into increased risks for decision-making within the energy sector, the projected climate change is predicted to have a largely positive impact on energy production levels in the region, and energy systems modelling projects increased export of energy to continental Europe by 2020