Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990�2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100�000 people), which increased by 17·2 since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100�000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9 since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3 since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60�80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7 to 7·5 between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Excessive iodine status among school‐aged children in the State of Qatar: Results of the National Iodine Deficiency Disorder Survey

Abstract Background Iodine deficiency poses a significant public health challenge worldwide, particularly in preschool children and pregnant women. Assessing the iodine intake at a population level is essential, as both deficient and excessive iodine status can have adverse health consequences. The main objective of this survey is to understand the iodine deficiency status in schoolchildren aged 6–12 years in the State of Qatar. Methods A cross‐sectional survey was conducted from March to June 2014 among school‐aged children using a two‐stage cluster sampling technique. Anthropometric, biochemical, clinical, and dietary parameters for seafood were collected. Spot urine samples were collected from 967 participants, and a repeat random subsample urine was collected from 288 participants. Overall median urinary iodine concentration (UIC) was calculated. Iodine content in household salt samples was estimated by qualitative and quantitative methods. Mann–Whitney U test was used for comparison. Results The median UIC was 333.2 μg/L (IQR = 228.6). UIC prevalence rates between 300–999 and >1000 μg/L were 56.7% and 2.8%, respectively. The goiter prevalence was 0.4%. A significant difference was noted in overall median UIC levels between boys and girls (p = 0.003). Adequate iodized salt consumption was reported by 74.9% of households, and weekly seafood consumption was reported by one third of the respondents. Conclusion The results indicate an excess intake of iodine among the studied population in the State of Qatar, and national efforts are needed to bring iodine intake and concentration levels within the cutoff value for the concerned survey population's age group. In addition, a surveillance system needs to be set up for continuous monitoring of iodine content and salt intake at the population level in the State of Qatar

Worldwide experience of homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: retrospective cohort study

Background: Homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (HoFH) is a rare inherited disorder resulting in extremely elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Current guidance about its management and prognosis stems from small studies, mostly from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical and genetic characteristics, as well as the impact, of current practice on health outcomes of HoFH patients globally. Methods: The HoFH International Clinical Collaborators registry collected data on patients with a clinical, or genetic, or both, diagnosis of HoFH using a retrospective cohort study design. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04815005. Findings: Overall, 751 patients from 38 countries were included, with 565 (75%) reporting biallelic pathogenic variants. The median age of diagnosis was 12·0 years (IQR 5·5–27·0) years. Of the 751 patients, 389 (52%) were female and 362 (48%) were male. Race was reported for 527 patients; 338 (64%) patients were White, 121 (23%) were Asian, and 68 (13%) were Black or mixed race. The major manifestations of ASCVD or aortic stenosis were already present in 65 (9%) of patients at diagnosis of HoFH. Globally, pretreatment LDL cholesterol levels were 14·7 mmol/L (IQR 11·6–18·4). Among patients with detailed therapeutic information, 491 (92%) of 534 received statins, 342 (64%) of 534 received ezetimibe, and 243 (39%) of 621 received lipoprotein apheresis. On-treatment LDL cholesterol levels were lower in high-income countries (3·93 mmol/L, IQR 2·6–5·8) versus non-high-income countries (9·3 mmol/L, 6·7–12·7), with greater use of three or more lipid-lowering therapies (LLT; high-income 66% vs non-high-income 24%) and consequently more patients attaining guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol goals (high-income 21% vs non-high-income 3%). A first major adverse cardiovascular event occurred a decade earlier in non-high-income countries, at a median age of 24·5 years (IQR 17·0–34·5) versus 37·0 years (29·0–49·0) in high-income countries (adjusted hazard ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·13–2·38). Interpretation: Worldwide, patients with HoFH are diagnosed too late, undertreated, and at high premature ASCVD risk. Greater use of multi-LLT regimens is associated with lower LDL cholesterol levels and better outcomes. Significant global disparities exist in treatment regimens, control of LDL cholesterol levels, and cardiovascular event-free survival, which demands a critical re-evaluation of global health policy to reduce inequalities and improve outcomes for all patients with HoFH. Funding: Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Academic Medical Center; Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania; and European Atherosclerosis Societ

Worldwide experience of homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: retrospective cohort study

Background: Homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (HoFH) is a rare inherited disorder resulting in extremely elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Current guidance about its management and prognosis stems from small studies, mostly from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical and genetic characteristics, as well as the impact, of current practice on health outcomes of HoFH patients globally. Methods: The HoFH International Clinical Collaborators registry collected data on patients with a clinical, or genetic, or both, diagnosis of HoFH using a retrospective cohort study design. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04815005. Findings: Overall, 751 patients from 38 countries were included, with 565 (75%) reporting biallelic pathogenic variants. The median age of diagnosis was 12·0 years (IQR 5·5–27·0) years. Of the 751 patients, 389 (52%) were female and 362 (48%) were male. Race was reported for 527 patients; 338 (64%) patients were White, 121 (23%) were Asian, and 68 (13%) were Black or mixed race. The major manifestations of ASCVD or aortic stenosis were already present in 65 (9%) of patients at diagnosis of HoFH. Globally, pretreatment LDL cholesterol levels were 14·7 mmol/L (IQR 11·6–18·4). Among patients with detailed therapeutic information, 491 (92%) of 534 received statins, 342 (64%) of 534 received ezetimibe, and 243 (39%) of 621 received lipoprotein apheresis. On-treatment LDL cholesterol levels were lower in high-income countries (3·93 mmol/L, IQR 2·6–5·8) versus non-high-income countries (9·3 mmol/L, 6·7–12·7), with greater use of three or more lipid-lowering therapies (LLT; high-income 66% vs non-high-income 24%) and consequently more patients attaining guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol goals (high-income 21% vs non-high-income 3%). A first major adverse cardiovascular event occurred a decade earlier in non-high-income countries, at a median age of 24·5 years (IQR 17·0–34·5) versus 37·0 years (29·0–49·0) in high-income countries (adjusted hazard ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·13–2·38). Interpretation: Worldwide, patients with HoFH are diagnosed too late, undertreated, and at high premature ASCVD risk. Greater use of multi-LLT regimens is associated with lower LDL cholesterol levels and better outcomes. Significant global disparities exist in treatment regimens, control of LDL cholesterol levels, and cardiovascular event-free survival, which demands a critical re-evaluation of global health policy to reduce inequalities and improve outcomes for all patients with HoFH

Worldwide experience of homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: retrospective cohort study

Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolaemia International Clinical Collaborators: Tycho R Tromp, Merel L Hartgers, G Kees Hovingh, Antonio J Vallejo-Vaz, Kausik K Ray, Handrean Soran, Tomas Freiberger, Stefano A Bertolini, Mariko Harada-Shiba, Jing Pang, Gerald F Watts, Susanne Greber-Platzer, Martin Mäser, Thomas M Stulnig, Christoph F Ebenbichler, Khalid Bin Thani, David Cassiman, Olivier S Descamps, Daisy Rymen, Peter Witters, Raul D Santos, Liam R Brunham, Gordon A Francis, Jacques Genest, Robert A Hegele, Brooke A Kennedy, Isabelle Ruel, Mark H Sherman, Long Jiang, Luya Wang, Željko Reiner, Vladimir Blaha, Richard Ceska, Jana Dvorakova, Lubomir Dlouhy, Pavel Horak, Vladimir Soska, Lukas Tichy, Robin Urbanek, Helena Vaverkova, Michal Vrablik, Stanislav Zemek, Lukas Zlatohlavek, Sameh Emil, Tarek Naguib, Ashraf Reda, Sophie Béliard, Eric Bruckert, Antonio Gallo, Moses S Elisaf, Genovefa Kolovou, Hofit Cohen, Ronen Durst, Eldad J Dann, Avishay Elis, Osama Hussein, Eran Leitersdorf, Daniel Schurr, Nitika Setia, Ishwar C Verma, Mohammed D Alareedh, Mutaz Al-Khnifsawi, Ali F Abdalsahib Al-Zamili, Sabah H Rhadi, Foaad K Shaghee, Marcello Arca, Maurizio Averna, Andrea Bartuli, Marco Bucci, Paola S Buonuomo, Paolo Calabrò, Sebastiano Calandra, Manuela Casula, Alberico L Catapano, Angelo B Cefalù, Arrigo F G Cicero, Sergio D'Addato, Laura D'Erasmo, Alessia Di Costanzo, Tommaso Fasano, Marta Gazzotti, Antonina Giammanco, Gabriella Iannuzzo, Anastasia Ibba, Emanuele A Negri, Andrea Pasta, Chiara Pavanello, Livia Pisciotta, Claudio Rabacchi, Carlo Ripoli, Tiziana Sampietro, Francesco Sbrana, Fulvio Sileo, Patrizia Suppressa, Patrizia Tarugi, Chiara Trenti, Maria G Zenti, Mika Hori, Mahmoud H Ayesh, Sami T Azar, Fadi F Bitar, Akl C Fahed, Elie M Moubarak, Georges Nemer, Hapizah M Nawawi, Ramón Madriz, Roopa Mehta, Arjen J Cupido, Joep C Defesche, M Doortje Reijman, Jeanine E Roeters-van Lennep, Erik S G Stroes, Albert Wiegman, Linda Zuurbier, Khalid Al-Waili, Fouzia Sadiq, Krzysztof Chlebus, Mafalda Bourbon, Isabel M Gaspar, Katarina S Lalic, Marat V Ezhov, Andrey V Susekov, Urh Groselj, Min-Ji Charng, Weerapan Khovidhunkit, Melih Aktan, Bulent B Altunkeser, Sinan Demircioglu, Melis Kose, Cumali Gokce, Osman Ilhan, Meral Kayikcioglu, Leyla G Kaynar, Irfan Kuku, Erdal Kurtoglu, Harika Okutan, Osman I Ozcebe, Zafer Pekkolay, Saim Sag, Osman Z Salcioglu, Ahmet Temizhan, Mustafa Yenercag, Mehmet Yilmaz, Hamiyet Yilmaz Yasar, Olena Mitchenko, Alexander R M Lyons, Christophe A T Stevens, Julie A Brothers, Lisa C Hudgins, Christina Nguyen, Rano Alieva, Aleksandr Shek, Doan-Loi Do, Ngoc-Thanh Kim, Hong-An Le, Thanh-Tung Le, Mai-Ngoc T Nguyen, Thanh-Huong Truong, Dirk J Blom, Frederick J Raal, Marina Cuchel.Background: Homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (HoFH) is a rare inherited disorder resulting in extremely elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Current guidance about its management and prognosis stems from small studies, mostly from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical and genetic characteristics, as well as the impact, of current practice on health outcomes of HoFH patients globally. Methods: The HoFH International Clinical Collaborators registry collected data on patients with a clinical, or genetic, or both, diagnosis of HoFH using a retrospective cohort study design. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04815005. Findings: Overall, 751 patients from 38 countries were included, with 565 (75%) reporting biallelic pathogenic variants. The median age of diagnosis was 12·0 years (IQR 5·5-27·0) years. Of the 751 patients, 389 (52%) were female and 362 (48%) were male. Race was reported for 527 patients; 338 (64%) patients were White, 121 (23%) were Asian, and 68 (13%) were Black or mixed race. The major manifestations of ASCVD or aortic stenosis were already present in 65 (9%) of patients at diagnosis of HoFH. Globally, pretreatment LDL cholesterol levels were 14·7 mmol/L (IQR 11·6-18·4). Among patients with detailed therapeutic information, 491 (92%) of 534 received statins, 342 (64%) of 534 received ezetimibe, and 243 (39%) of 621 received lipoprotein apheresis. On-treatment LDL cholesterol levels were lower in high-income countries (3·93 mmol/L, IQR 2·6-5·8) versus non-high-income countries (9·3 mmol/L, 6·7-12·7), with greater use of three or more lipid-lowering therapies (LLT; high-income 66% vs non-high-income 24%) and consequently more patients attaining guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol goals (high-income 21% vs non-high-income 3%). A first major adverse cardiovascular event occurred a decade earlier in non-high-income countries, at a median age of 24·5 years (IQR 17·0-34·5) versus 37·0 years (29·0-49·0) in high-income countries (adjusted hazard ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·13-2·38). Interpretation: Worldwide, patients with HoFH are diagnosed too late, undertreated, and at high premature ASCVD risk. Greater use of multi-LLT regimens is associated with lower LDL cholesterol levels and better outcomes. Significant global disparities exist in treatment regimens, control of LDL cholesterol levels, and cardiovascular event-free survival, which demands a critical re-evaluation of global health policy to reduce inequalities and improve outcomes for all patients with HoFH.Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Academic Medical Center; Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania; and European Atherosclerosis Society.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Worldwide experience of homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: retrospective cohort study

Background Homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (HoFH) is a rare inherited disorder resulting in extremely elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Current guidance about its management and prognosis stems from small studies, mostly from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical and genetic characteristics, as well as the impact, of current practice on health outcomes of HoFH patients globally. Methods The HoFH International Clinical Collaborators registry collected data on patients with a clinical, or genetic, or both, diagnosis of HoFH using a retrospective cohort study design. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04815005. Findings Overall, 751 patients from 38 countries were included, with 565 (75%) reporting biallelic pathogenic variants. The median age of diagnosis was 12·0 years (IQR 5·5–27·0) years. Of the 751 patients, 389 (52%) were female and 362 (48%) were male. Race was reported for 527 patients; 338 (64%) patients were White, 121 (23%) were Asian, and 68 (13%) were Black or mixed race. The major manifestations of ASCVD or aortic stenosis were already present in 65 (9%) of patients at diagnosis of HoFH. Globally, pretreatment LDL cholesterol levels were 14·7 mmol/L (IQR 11·6–18·4). Among patients with detailed therapeutic information, 491 (92%) of 534 received statins, 342 (64%) of 534 received ezetimibe, and 243 (39%) of 621 received lipoprotein apheresis. On-treatment LDL cholesterol levels were lower in high-income countries (3·93 mmol/L, IQR 2·6–5·8) versus non-high-income countries (9·3 mmol/L, 6·7–12·7), with greater use of three or more lipid-lowering therapies (LLT; high-income 66% vs non-high-income 24%) and consequently more patients attaining guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol goals (high-income 21% vs non-high-income 3%). A first major adverse cardiovascular event occurred a decade earlier in non-high-income countries, at a median age of 24·5 years (IQR 17·0–34·5) versus 37·0 years (29·0–49·0) in high-income countries (adjusted hazard ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·13–2·38). Interpretation Worldwide, patients with HoFH are diagnosed too late, undertreated, and at high premature ASCVD risk. Greater use of multi-LLT regimens is associated with lower LDL cholesterol levels and better outcomes. Significant global disparities exist in treatment regimens, control of LDL cholesterol levels, and cardiovascular event-free survival, which demands a critical re-evaluation of global health policy to reduce inequalities and improve outcomes for all patients with HoFH. Funding Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Academic Medical Center; Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania; and European Atherosclerosis Societ

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation