Success Factors in Peer-to-Business (P2B) Crowdlending: A Predictive Approach

Peer-to-Business (P2B) crowdlending is gaining importance among companies seeking funding. However, not all projects get the same take-up by the crowd. Thus, this study aims to determine the key factors that drive non-professional investors to choose a given loan in an online environment. To this purpose, we have analyzed 243 crowdlending campaigns on October.eu platform. We have obtained a series of variables from the analyzed loans using logistic regression. Results indicate that loan amount, loan term and overall credit rating are the key predictors of non-professional lender P2B crowdlending success. These findings may be useful for predicting whether the crowd will subscribe to a loan request or not. This information would help businesses to modify specific loan characteristics (if possible) to make their loans more attractive or could even lead companies to consider a different financial option. It could also help platforms select and adapt project parameters to secure their success

Term structure estimation, liquidity-induced heteroskedasticity and the price of liquidity risk

Desde la publicación del trabajo de Vasicek y Fong (1982) se ha generalizado el ajuste de la estructura temporal de tipos de interés asumiendo que los rendimientos son homocedásticos. En este trabajo se muestra que dicha hipótesis no se mantiene cuando los activos presentan diferencias en liquidez, incluso cuando se trata de bonos del mismo emisor. Un bajo volumen negociado implica una mayor volatilidad. Además, la existencia de discontinuidades en la negociación del precio de los bonos producirá mayor volatilidad en aquellos que se encuentren más próximos a vencimiento. Para mostrar estos efectos, se ha trabajado con bonos del Estado español desde 1988 hasta 2010, considerando más de 700 títulos y 5.000 días observados. Con estos datos se han estimado los errores fuera de la muestra para cada día y título observados. La varianza de estos errores está negativamente correlacionada con la rotación y la duración de cada título, mientras que la media del error está directamente correlacionada con la varianza estimada. Por todo ello, en este trabajo se propone un modelo modificado de Svensson (1994) para estimar la curva de tipos de interés añadiendo un término por liquidez y estimando los parámetros por mínimos cuadrados ponderados, teniendo en cuenta la heterocedasticidad inducida por liquidezSince the seminal paper of Vasicek and Fong (1982), the term structures of interest rates have been fitted assuming that yields are cross-sectionally homoskedastic. We show that this assumption does not hold when there are differences in liquidity, even for bonds of the same issuer. Lower turnover implies higher volatility. In addition, a minimum tick size for bond price negotiation will produce higher volatility for bonds approaching their maturity dates. To show these effects, we use data for Spanish sovereign bonds from 1988 to 2010, covering more than 700 bonds and 5000 trading days. We estimate the out-ofsample error for each bond and day. The variance of these errors is found to be negatively correlated with each bond’s turnover and duration, while the mean of the errors is found to be directly correlated with the estimated variance. As a result, we propose a modified Svensson (1994) yield curve model to fit the term structure, adding a liquidity term and estimating parameters by weighted least-squared errors to take into account the liquidity induced heteroskedasticit

Pors a l'aula de plàstica. Diàleg amb futurs mestres d'educació primària

Docent i alumnes de l'assignatura d'Educació Visual i Plàstica a Primària dialoguen a través dels informes sobre les sessions del curs, amb l'objectiu de vèncer les seves pors i desactivar possibles bloquejos per afrontar els reptes que se'ls proposen amb esperit creatiu. Es tracta d'experimentar, d'equivocar-se, de reflexionar, d'arriscar-se , perquè això és el que fan els bons mestres (de plàstica)

Sustained low disease activity measured by ASDAS slow radiographic spinal progression in axial spondyloarthritis patients treated with TNF-inhibitors: data from REGISPONSERBIO

Background To evaluate the influence of the disease activity on radiographic progression in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) patients treated with TNF inhibitors (TNFi). Methods The study included 101 axSpA patients from the Spanish Register of Biological Therapy in Spondyloarthritides (REGISPONSERBIO), which had clinical data and radiographic assessment available. Patients were classified into 2 groups based on the duration of TNFi treatment at baseline: (i) long-term treatment (>= 4 years) and (ii) no long-term treatment (= 2 mSASSS units. At inclusion, approximately half of the patients (45.5%) were receiving long-term treatment with TNFi (>= 4 years). In this group of subjects, a significant difference in averaged Ankylosing Spondylitis disease Activity Score (ASDAS) across follow-up was found between progressors and non-progressors (2.33 vs 1.76, p=0.027, respectively). In patients not under long-term TNFi treatment (54.5%) though, no significant ASDAS differences were observed between progressors and non-progressors until the third year of follow-up. Furthermore, no significant differences were found in progression status, when disease activity was measured by Bath Ankylosing spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and C reactive protein (CRP). Conclusions Patients on long-term TNFi treatment with a mean sustained low disease activity measures by ASDAS presented lower radiographic progression than those with active disease

Assessing associations between the AURKAHMMR-TPX2-TUBG1 functional module and breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

While interplay between BRCA1 and AURKA-RHAMM-TPX2-TUBG1 regulates mammary epithelial polarization, common genetic variation in HMMR (gene product RHAMM) may be associated with risk of breast cancer in BRCA1 mutation carriers. Following on these observations, we further assessed the link between the AURKA-HMMR-TPX2-TUBG1 functional module and risk of breast cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. Forty-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 15,252 BRCA1 and 8,211 BRCA2 mutation carriers and subsequently analyzed using a retrospective likelihood appr

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Assessing Associations between the AURKA-HMMR-TPX2-TUBG1 Functional Module and Breast Cancer Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

While interplay between BRCA1 and AURKA-RHAMM-TPX2-TUBG1 regulates mammary epithelial polarization, common genetic variation in HMMR (gene product RHAMM) may be associated with risk of breast cancer in BRCA1 mutation carriers. Following on these observations, we further assessed the link between the AURKA-HMMR-TPX2-TUBG1 functional module and risk of breast cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. Forty-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 15,252 BRCA1 and 8,211 BRCA2 mutation carriers and subsequently analyzed using a retrospective likelihood approach. The association of HMMR rs299290 with breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers was confirmed: per-allele hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 - 1.15, p = 1.9 x 10(-4) (false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted p = 0.043). Variation in CSTF1, located next to AURKA, was also found to be associated with breast cancer risk in BRCA2 mutation carriers: rs2426618 per-allele HR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.03 - 1.16, p = 0.005 (FDR-adjusted p = 0.045). Assessment of pairwise interactions provided suggestions (FDR-adjusted p(interaction) values > 0.05) for deviations from the multiplicative model for rs299290 and CSTF1 rs6064391, and rs299290 and TUBG1 rs11649877 in both BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following these suggestions, the expression of HMMR and AURKA or TUBG1 in sporadic breast tumors was found to potentially interact, influencing patients' survival. Together, the results of this study support the hypothesis of a causative link between altered function of AURKA-HMMR-TPX2-TUBG1 and breast carcinogenesis in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.Peer reviewe