Data-driven counterfactual evaluation of management outcomes to improve emergency conservation decisions

Monitoring is needed to assess conservation success and improve management, but naïve or simplistic interpretation of monitoring data can lead to poor decisions. We illustrate how to counter this risk by combining decision-support tools and quantitative counterfactual analysis. We analyzed 20 years of egg rescue for tara iti (Sternula nereis davisae) in Aotearoa New Zealand. Survival is lower for rescued eggs; however, only eggs perceived as imminently threatened by predators or weather are rescued, so concluding that rescue is ineffective would be biased. Equally, simply assuming all rescued eggswould have died if left in situ is likely to be simplistic. Instead, we used the monitoring data itself to estimate statistical support for a wide space of uncertain counterfactuals about decisions and fate of rescued eggs. Results suggest under past management, rescuing and leaving eggs would have led to approximately the same overall fledging rate, because of likely imperfect threat assessment and low survival of rescued eggs to fledging. Managers are currently working to improve both parameters. Our approach avoids both naïve interpretation of observed outcomes and simplistic assumptions thatmanagement is always justified, using the same data to obtain unbiased quantitative estimates of counterfactual support

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57

Genome-wide association study identifies 74 loci associated with educational attainment

Educational attainment is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals1. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for educational attainment that extends our earlier discovery sample1,2 of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication study in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with the number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioural phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because educational attainment is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric diseases

One-year time series of investigations of analytes within human breath using ion mobility spectrometry

Bunkowski A, Maddula S, Davies AN, et al. One-year time series of investigations of analytes within human breath using ion mobility spectrometry. Int. J. Ion Mobility Spectrometry. 2010;13(3-4):141-148

Genome-wide association study identifies 74 loci associated with educational attainment.

Educational attainment is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for educational attainment that extends our earlier discovery sample of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication study in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with the number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioural phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because educational attainment is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric diseases

Reproducibility of CRISPR-Cas9 methods for generation of conditional mouse alleles: a multi-center evaluation

BackgroundCRISPR-Cas9 gene-editing technology has facilitated the generation of knockout mice, providing an alternative to cumbersome and time-consuming traditional embryonic stem cell-based methods. An earlier study reported up to 16% efficiency in generating conditional knockout (cKO or floxed) alleles by microinjection of 2 single guide RNAs (sgRNA) and 2 single-stranded oligonucleotides as donors (referred herein as “two-donor floxing” method).ResultsWe re-evaluate the two-donor method from a consortium of 20 laboratories across the world. The dataset constitutes 56 genetic loci, 17,887 zygotes, and 1718 live-born mice, of which only 15 (0.87%) mice contain cKO alleles. We subject the dataset to statistical analyses and a machine learning algorithm, which reveals that none of the factors analyzed was predictive for the success of this method. We test some of the newer methods that use one-donor DNA on 18 loci for which the two-donor approach failed to produce cKO alleles. We find that the one-donor methods are 10- to 20-fold more efficient than the two-donor approach.ConclusionWe propose that the two-donor method lacks efficiency because it relies on two simultaneous recombination events in cis, an outcome that is dwarfed by pervasive accompanying undesired editing events. The methods that use one-donor DNA are fairly efficient as they rely on only one recombination event, and the probability of correct insertion of the donor cassette without unanticipated mutational events is much higher. Therefore, one-donor methods offer higher efficiencies for the routine generation of cKO animal models