Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17 : analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. ***Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Rahman” is provided in this record***C A T Antonio reports grants and personal fees from Johnson & Johnson (Philippines), outside the submitted work. S J Dunachie reports grants from The Fleming Fund at UK Department of Health & Social Care, during the conduct of the study. M Jakovljevic reports grants from Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of The Republic of Serbia, outside the submitted work. J J J

Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: A spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy

Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.Results: We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.Conclusions: Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

publishedVersio

Properties of sunspot umbrae observed in Cycle 24

We analyzed the size, intensity, and magnetic field strength of sunspot umbrae to compare the present cycle 24 with the previous one. We used data of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and selected all sunspots between May 2010 and October 2012, using one image per day. We created two subsets of this data with a manual tracking algorithm, both without duplication. One is containing each sunspot (910 umbrae within 488 spots) and was used to analyze the distribution of umbral areas, selected with an automated thresholding method. The other one contains 205 fully evolved sunspots. We find nonlinear relations between umbral minimum intensity and size and between maximum magnetic field strength and size. The field strength scales linear with the intensity and the umbral size scales roughly linear with the total magnetic flux, while the size and field strength level off with stronger flux. When separated in hemisphere and averaged temporally, the southern umbrae show a temporal increase in size and the northern umbrae stay constant. There is no temporal variation in the umbral mean intensity detectable. The probability density function of the umbral area in the ascending phase of the current solar cycle is similar to that of the last solar cycle. From our investigation of umbral area, magnetic field, magnetic flux and umbral intensity of the sunspots of the rising phase of cycle 24, we do not find a significant difference to the previous cycle, and hence no indication for a long-term decline of solar activity.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Background More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003).publishedVersio

Modeling the Longitudinal Asymmetry in Sunspot Emergence -- the Role of the Wilson Depression

The distributions of sunspot longitude at first appearance and at disappearance display an east-west asymmetry that results from a reduction in visibility as one moves from disk centre to the limb. To first order, this is explicable in terms of simple geometrical foreshortening. However, the centre-to-limb visibility variation is much larger than that predicted by foreshortening. Sunspot visibility is also known to be affected by the Wilson effect: the apparent dish shape of the sunspot photosphere caused by the temperature-dependent variation of the geometrical position of the tau=1 layer. In this article we investigate the role of the Wilson effect on the sunspot appearance distributions, deducing a mean depth for the umbral tau=1 layer of 500 to 1500 km. This is based on the comparison of observations of sunspot longitude distribution and Monte Carlo simulations of sunspot appearance using different models for spot growth rate, growth time and depth of Wilson depression.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, in press (Solar Physics

A homogeneous database of sunspot areas covering more than 130 years

The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records from a number of different observatories are available. These, however, show systematic differences and often have significants gaps. Our goal is to obtain a uniform and complete sunspot area time series by combining different data sets. A homogeneus composite of sunspot areas is essential for different applications in solar physics, among others for irradiance reconstructions. Data recorded simultaneously at different observatories are statistically compared in order to determine the intercalibration factors. Using these data we compile a complete and cross-calibrated time series. The Greenwich data set is used as a basis until 1976, the Russian data (a compilation of observations made at stations in the former USSR) between 1977 and 1985 and data compiled by the USAF network since 1986. Other data sets (Rome, Yunnan, Catania) are used to fill up the remaining gaps. Using the final sunspot areas record the Photometric Sunspot Index is calculated. We also show that the use of uncalibrated sunspot areas data sets can seriously affect the estimate of irradiance variations. Our analysis implies that there is no basis for the claim that UV irradiance variations have a much smaller influence on climate than total solar irradiance variations.Comment: 40 pages, 8 figures; JGR - Space Physics, publishe

Modeling the Subsurface Structure of Sunspots

While sunspots are easily observed at the solar surface, determining their subsurface structure is not trivial. There are two main hypotheses for the subsurface structure of sunspots: the monolithic model and the cluster model. Local helioseismology is the only means by which we can investigate subphotospheric structure. However, as current linear inversion techniques do not yet allow helioseismology to probe the internal structure with sufficient confidence to distinguish between the monolith and cluster models, the development of physically realistic sunspot models are a priority for helioseismologists. This is because they are not only important indicators of the variety of physical effects that may influence helioseismic inferences in active regions, but they also enable detailed assessments of the validity of helioseismic interpretations through numerical forward modeling. In this paper, we provide a critical review of the existing sunspot models and an overview of numerical methods employed to model wave propagation through model sunspots. We then carry out an helioseismic analysis of the sunspot in Active Region 9787 and address the serious inconsistencies uncovered by \citeauthor{gizonetal2009}~(\citeyear{gizonetal2009,gizonetal2009a}). We find that this sunspot is most probably associated with a shallow, positive wave-speed perturbation (unlike the traditional two-layer model) and that travel-time measurements are consistent with a horizontal outflow in the surrounding moat.Comment: 73 pages, 19 figures, accepted by Solar Physic

Multiwavelength studies of MHD waves in the solar chromosphere: An overview of recent results

The chromosphere is a thin layer of the solar atmosphere that bridges the relatively cool photosphere and the intensely heated transition region and corona. Compressible and incompressible waves propagating through the chromosphere can supply significant amounts of energy to the interface region and corona. In recent years an abundance of high-resolution observations from state-of-the-art facilities have provided new and exciting ways of disentangling the characteristics of oscillatory phenomena propagating through the dynamic chromosphere. Coupled with rapid advancements in magnetohydrodynamic wave theory, we are now in an ideal position to thoroughly investigate the role waves play in supplying energy to sustain chromospheric and coronal heating. Here, we review the recent progress made in characterising, categorising and interpreting oscillations manifesting in the solar chromosphere, with an impetus placed on their intrinsic energetics.Comment: 48 pages, 25 figures, accepted into Space Science Review

Antioxidant activities and phenolic contents of the methanol extracts of the stems of Acokanthera oppositifolia and Adenia gummifera

Abstract Background Acokanthera oppositifolia Lam (family: Apocynaceae) is a shrub or small tree with white latex, and the leaves of this plant are used in the form of a snuff to treat headaches and in infusions for abdominal pains and convulsions and septicaemia. Adenia gummifera Harv of the family Passifloraceae is a distinctive woody climber whose infusions are used as emetics and are said to help with some forms of depression. Lipid peroxidation has gained more importance today because of its involvement in pathogenesis of many diseases. Free radicals are the main agents in lipid peroxidation. Antioxidants thus play an important role of protecting the human body against damage by the free radicals. Plants containing phenolic compounds have been reported to possess strong antioxidant properties. Methods The antioxidant activities and phenolic contents of the methanol extracts of the stems of Acokanthera oppositifolia and Adenia gummifera were evaluated using in vitro standard procedures. Spectrophotometry was the basis for the determinations of total phenol, total flavonoids, flavonols, and proanthocyanidins. Tannins, quercetin and catechin equivalents were used for these parameters. The antioxidant activities of the stem extract of Acokanthera oppositifolia were determined by the 2,2'-azinobis-3- ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid (ABTS), 1,1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), and ferrous reducing antioxidant property (FRAP) methods. Results The results from this study showed that the antioxidant activities of the stem extract of Acokanthera oppositifolia as determined by the 1,1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), and ferrous reducing antioxidant property (FRAP) methods, were higher than that of Adenia gummifera. The levels of total phenols and flavonols for A. oppositifolia were also higher. On the other hand, the stem extract of Adenia gummifera had higher level of total flavonoids and proanthocyanidins than that of Acokanthera oppositifolia. The 2, 2'-azinobis-3- ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid (ABTS) activities of the 2 plant extracts were similar and comparable to that of BHT. Conclusion Thus, the present results indicate clearly that the extracts of Acokanthera oppositifolia and Adenia gummifera possess antioxidant properties and could serve as free radical inhibitors or scavengers, acting possibly as primary antioxidants. This study has to some extent validated the medicinal potential of the stems of Acokanthera oppositifolia and Adenia gummifera.</p