Incorporating Historical Models with Adaptive Bayesian Updates

This paper considers Bayesian approaches for incorporating information from a historical model into a current analysis when the historical model includes only a subset of covariates currently of interest. The statistical challenge is two-fold. First, the parameters in the nested historical model are not generally equal to their counterparts in the larger current model, neither in value nor interpretation. Second, because the historical information will not be equally informative for all parameters in the current analysis, additional regularization may be required beyond that provided by the historical information. We propose several novel extensions of the so-called power prior that adaptively combine a prior based upon the historical information with a variance-reducing prior that shrinks parameter values toward zero. The ideas are directly motivated by our work building mortality risk prediction models for pediatric patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or ECMO. We have developed a model on a registry-based cohort of ECMO patients and now seek to expand this model with additional biometric measurements, not available in the registry, collected on a small auxiliary cohort. Our adaptive priors are able to leverage the efficiency of the original model and identify novel mortality risk factors. We support this with a simulation study, which demonstrates the potential for efficiency gains in estimation under a variety of scenarios

Default Priors for the Intercept Parameter in Logistic Regressions

In logistic regression, separation refers to the situation in which a linear combination of predictors perfectly discriminates the binary outcome. Because finite-valued maximum likelihood parameter estimates do not exist under separation, Bayesian regressions with informative shrinkage of the regression coefficients offer a suitable alternative. Little focus has been given on whether and how to shrink the intercept parameter. Based upon classical studies of separation, we argue that efficiency in estimating regression coefficients may vary with the intercept prior. We adapt alternative prior distributions for the intercept that downweight implausibly extreme regions of the parameter space rendering less sensitivity to separation. Through simulation and the analysis of exemplar datasets, we quantify differences across priors stratified by established statistics measuring the degree of separation. Relative to diffuse priors, our recommendations generally result in more efficient estimation of the regression coefficients themselves when the data are nearly separated. They are equally efficient in non-separated datasets, making them suitable for default use. Modest differences were observed with respect to out-of-sample discrimination. Our work also highlights the interplay between priors for the intercept and the regression coefficients: numerical results are more sensitive to the choice of intercept prior when using a weakly informative prior on the regression coefficients than an informative shrinkage prior

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Production of High-pT Like-Sign Lepton Pairs in Proton-Antiproton Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV

We report on a search for anomalous production of events with at least two charged, isolated, like-sign leptons with pT > 11 GeV/c using a 107 pb^-1 sample of 1.8 TeV ppbar collisions collected by the CDF detector. We define a signal region containing low background from Standard Model processes. To avoid bias, we fix the final cuts before examining the event yield in the signal region using control regions to test the Monte Carlo predictions. We observe no events in the signal region, consistent with an expectation of 0.63^(+0.84)_(-0.07) events. We present 95% confidence level limits on new physics processes in both a signature-based context as well as within a representative minimal supergravity (tanbeta = 3) model.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. Minor textual changes, cosmetic improvements to figures and updated and expanded reference

Evidence for the exclusive decay Bc+- to J/psi pi+- and measurement of the mass of the Bc meson

We report first evidence for a fully reconstructed decay mode of the B_c^{\pm} meson in the channel B_c^{\pm} \to J/psi \pi^{\pm}, with J/psi \to mu^+mu^-. The analysis is based on an integrated luminosity of 360 pb$^{-1} in p\bar{p} collisions at 1.96 TeV center of mass energy collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We observe 14.6 \pm 4.6 signal events with a background of 7.1 \pm 0.9 events, and a fit to the J/psi pi^{\pm} mass spectrum yields a B_c^{\pm} mass of 6285.7 \pm 5.3(stat) \pm 1.2(syst) MeV/c^2. The probability of a peak of this magnitude occurring by random fluctuation in the search region is estimated as 0.012%.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Version 3, accepted by PR

Top quark mass measurement using the template method at CDF

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels of $t\bar{t}$ decays using the template method. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.6 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions at Tevatron with $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV, collected with the CDF II detector. The measurement is performed by constructing templates of three kinematic variables in the lepton+jets and two kinematic variables in the dilepton channel. The variables are two reconstructed top quark masses from different jets-to-quarks combinations and the invariant mass of two jets from the $W$ decay in the lepton+jets channel, and a reconstructed top quark mass and $m_{T2}$, a variable related to the transverse mass in events with two missing particles, in the dilepton channel. The simultaneous fit of the templates from signal and background events in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels to the data yields a measured top quark mass of $M_{top} = 172.1 \pm 1.1(stat) \pm 0.9(syst).$Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

Measurement of WγW\gamma and ZγZ\gamma Production in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

The Standard Model predictions for $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ production are tested using an integrated luminosity of 200 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collision data collected at the Collider Detector at Fermilab. The cross sections are measured selecting leptonic decays of the $W$ and $Z$ bosons, and photons with transverse energy $E_T>7$ GeV that are well separated from leptons. The production cross sections and kinematic distributions for the $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ are compared to SM predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Measurement of the Lifetime Difference Between B_s Mass Eigenstates

We present measurements of the lifetimes and polarization amplitudes for B_s --> J/psi phi and B_d --> J/psi K*0 decays. Lifetimes of the heavy (H) and light (L) mass eigenstates in the B_s system are separately measured for the first time by determining the relative contributions of amplitudes with definite CP as a function of the decay time. Using 203 +/- 15 B_s decays, we obtain tau_L = (1.05 +{0.16}/-{0.13} +/- 0.02) ps and tau_H = (2.07 +{0.58}/-{0.46} +/- 0.03) ps. Expressed in terms of the difference DeltaGamma_s and average Gamma_s, of the decay rates of the two eigenstates, the results are DeltaGamma_s/Gamma_s = (65 +{25}/-{33} +/- 1)%, and DeltaGamma_s = (0.47 +{0.19}/-{0.24} +/- 0.01) inverse ps.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables; as published in Physical Review Letters on 16 March 2005; revisions are for length and typesetting only, no changes in results or conclusion

Search for Long-lived Charged Massive Particles in anti-p p Collisions at s**1/2 = 1.8 TeV

We report a search for production of long-lived charged massive particles in a data sample of 90 pb^{-1} of \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV p anti-p collisions recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). The search uses the muon-like penetration and anomalously high ionization energy loss signature expected for such a particle to discriminate it from backgrounds. The data is found to agree with background expectations, and cross section limits of \cal{O} (1) pb are derived using two reference models, a stable quark and a stable scalar lepton.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

Measurement of the Dipion Mass Spectrum in X(3872) -> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- Decays

We measure the dipion mass spectrum in X(3872)--> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- decays using 360 pb-1 of pbar-p collisions at 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector. The spectrum is fit with predictions for odd C-parity (3S1, 1P1, and 3DJ) charmonia decaying to J/Psi Pi+ Pi-, as well as even C-parity states in which the pions are from Rho0 decay. The latter case also encompasses exotic interpretations, such as a D0-D*0Bar molecule. Only the 3S1 and J/Psi Rho hypotheses are compatible with our data. Since 3S1 is untenable on other grounds, decay via J/Psi Rho is favored, which implies C=+1 for the X(3872). Models for different J/Psi-Rho angular momenta L are considered. Flexibility in the models, especially the introduction of Rho-Omega interference, enable good descriptions of our data for both L=0 and 1.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures -- Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Secondary Vertex b-tagging

We present a measurement of the ttbar production cross section using events with one charged lepton and jets from ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. In these events, heavy flavor quarks from top quark decay are identified with a secondary vertex tagging algorithm. From 162 pb-1 of data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab, a total of 48 candidate events are selected, where 13.5 +- 1.8 events are expected from background contributions. We measure a ttbar production cross section of 5.6^{+1.2}_{-1.1} (stat.) ^{+0.9}_{0.6} (syst.) pb.Comment: 28 pages, 20 figures. Published in Physical Review