How simple rules determine pedestrian behavior and crowd disasters

With the increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd disasters and the simulation of pedestrian flows have become important research areas. Yet, even successful modeling approaches such as those inspired by Newtonian force models are still not fully consistent with empirical observations and are sometimes hard to calibrate. Here, a novel cognitive science approach is proposed, which is based on behavioral heuristics. We suggest that, guided by visual information, namely the distance of obstructions in candidate lines of sight, pedestrians apply two simple cognitive procedures to adapt their walking speeds and directions. While simpler than previous approaches, this model predicts individual trajectories and collective patterns of motion in good quantitative agreement with a large variety of empirical and experimental data. This includes the emergence of self-organization phenomena, such as the spontaneous formation of unidirectional lanes or stop-and-go waves. Moreover, the combination of pedestrian heuristics with body collisions generates crowd turbulence at extreme densities-a phenomenon that has been observed during recent crowd disasters. By proposing an integrated treatment of simultaneous interactions between multiple individuals, our approach overcomes limitations of current physics-inspired pair interaction models. Understanding crowd dynamics through cognitive heuristics is therefore not only crucial for a better preparation of safe mass events. It also clears the way for a more realistic modeling of collective social behaviors, in particular of human crowds and biological swarms. Furthermore, our behavioral heuristics may serve to improve the navigation of autonomous robots.Comment: Article accepted for publication in PNA

Information dynamics shape the networks of Internet-mediated prostitution

Like many other social phenomena, prostitution is increasingly coordinated over the Internet. The online behavior affects the offline activity; the reverse is also true. We investigated the reported sexual contacts between 6,624 anonymous escorts and 10,106 sex-buyers extracted from an online community from its beginning and six years on. These sexual encounters were also graded and categorized (in terms of the type of sexual activities performed) by the buyers. From the temporal, bipartite network of posts, we found a full feedback loop in which high grades on previous posts affect the future commercial success of the sex-worker, and vice versa. We also found a peculiar growth pattern in which the turnover of community members and sex workers causes a sublinear preferential attachment. There is, moreover, a strong geographic influence on network structure-the network is geographically clustered but still close to connected, the contacts consistent with the inverse-square law observed in trading patterns. We also found that the number of sellers scales sublinearly with city size, so this type of prostitution does not, comparatively speaking, benefit much from an increasing concentration of people

On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

An Analytical Approach to Neuronal Connectivity

This paper describes how realistic neuromorphic networks can have their connectivity properties fully characterized in analytical fashion. By assuming that all neurons have the same shape and are regularly distributed along the two-dimensional orthogonal lattice with parameter $\Delta$, it is possible to obtain the accurate number of connections and cycles of any length from the autoconvolution function as well as from the respective spectral density derived from the adjacency matrix. It is shown that neuronal shape plays an important role in defining the spatial spread of network connections. In addition, most such networks are characterized by the interesting phenomenon where the connections are progressively shifted along the spatial domain where the network is embedded. It is also shown that the number of cycles follows a power law with their respective length. Morphological measurements for characterization of the spatial distribution of connections, including the adjacency matrix spectral density and the lacunarity of the connections, are suggested. The potential of the proposed approach is illustrated with respect to digital images of real neuronal cells.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

Scaling laws of human interaction activity

Even though people in our contemporary, technological society are depending on communication, our understanding of the underlying laws of human communicational behavior continues to be poorly understood. Here we investigate the communication patterns in two social Internet communities in search of statistical laws in human interaction activity. This research reveals that human communication networks dynamically follow scaling laws that may also explain the observed trends in economic growth. Specifically, we identify a generalized version of Gibrat's law of social activity expressed as a scaling law between the fluctuations in the number of messages sent by members and their level of activity. Gibrat's law has been essential in understanding economic growth patterns, yet without an underlying general principle for its origin. We attribute this scaling law to long-term correlation patterns in human activity, which surprisingly span from days to the entire period of the available data of more than one year. Further, we provide a mathematical framework that relates the generalized version of Gibrat's law to the long-term correlated dynamics, which suggests that the same underlying mechanism could be the source of Gibrat's law in economics, ranging from large firms, research and development expenditures, gross domestic product of countries, to city population growth. These findings are also of importance for designing communication networks and for the understanding of the dynamics of social systems in which communication plays a role, such as economic markets and political systems.Comment: 20+7 pages, 4+2 figure

Microdynamics in stationary complex networks

Many complex systems, including networks, are not static but can display strong fluctuations at various time scales. Characterizing the dynamics in complex networks is thus of the utmost importance in the understanding of these networks and of the dynamical processes taking place on them. In this article, we study the example of the US airport network in the time period 1990-2000. We show that even if the statistical distributions of most indicators are stationary, an intense activity takes place at the local (`microscopic') level, with many disappearing/appearing connections (links) between airports. We find that connections have a very broad distribution of lifetimes, and we introduce a set of metrics to characterize the links' dynamics. We observe in particular that the links which disappear have essentially the same properties as the ones which appear, and that links which connect airports with very different traffic are very volatile. Motivated by this empirical study, we propose a model of dynamical networks, inspired from previous studies on firm growth, which reproduces most of the empirical observations both for the stationary statistical distributions and for the dynamical properties.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Persistence and Uncertainty in the Academic Career

Understanding how institutional changes within academia may affect the overall potential of science requires a better quantitative representation of how careers evolve over time. Since knowledge spillovers, cumulative advantage, competition, and collaboration are distinctive features of the academic profession, both the employment relationship and the procedures for assigning recognition and allocating funding should be designed to account for these factors. We study the annual production n_{i}(t) of a given scientist i by analyzing longitudinal career data for 200 leading scientists and 100 assistant professors from the physics community. We compare our results with 21,156 sports careers. Our empirical analysis of individual productivity dynamics shows that (i) there are increasing returns for the top individuals within the competitive cohort, and that (ii) the distribution of production growth is a leptokurtic "tent-shaped" distribution that is remarkably symmetric. Our methodology is general, and we speculate that similar features appear in other disciplines where academic publication is essential and collaboration is a key feature. We introduce a model of proportional growth which reproduces these two observations, and additionally accounts for the significantly right-skewed distributions of career longevity and achievement in science. Using this theoretical model, we show that short-term contracts can amplify the effects of competition and uncertainty making careers more vulnerable to early termination, not necessarily due to lack of individual talent and persistence, but because of random negative production shocks. We show that fluctuations in scientific production are quantitatively related to a scientist's collaboration radius and team efficiency.Comment: 29 pages total: 8 main manuscript + 4 figs, 21 SI text + fig

Predicting the stability of large structured food webs

The stability of ecological systems has been a long-standing focus of ecology. Recently, tools from random matrix theory have identified the main drivers of stability in ecological communities whose network structure is random. However, empirical food webs differ greatly from random graphs. For example, their degree distribution is broader, they contain few trophic cycles, and they are almost interval. Here we derive an approximation for the stability of food webs whose structure is generated by the cascade model, in which 'larger' species consume 'smaller' ones. We predict the stability of these food webs with great accuracy, and our approximation also works well for food webs whose structure is determined empirically or by the niche model. We find that intervality and broad degree distributions tend to stabilize food webs, and that average interaction strength has little influence on stability, compared with the effect of variance and correlation

A simple physical model for scaling in protein-protein interaction networks

It has recently been demonstrated that many biological networks exhibit a scale-free topology where the probability of observing a node with a certain number of edges (k) follows a power law: i.e. p(k) ~ k^-g. This observation has been reproduced by evolutionary models. Here we consider the network of protein-protein interactions and demonstrate that two published independent measurements of these interactions produce graphs that are only weakly correlated with one another despite their strikingly similar topology. We then propose a physical model based on the fundamental principle that (de)solvation is a major physical factor in protein-protein interactions. This model reproduces not only the scale-free nature of such graphs but also a number of higher-order correlations in these networks. A key support of the model is provided by the discovery of a significant correlation between number of interactions made by a protein and the fraction of hydrophobic residues on its surface. The model presented in this paper represents the first physical model for experimentally determined protein-protein interactions that comprehensively reproduces the topological features of interaction networks. These results have profound implications for understanding not only protein-protein interactions but also other types of scale-free networks.Comment: 50 pages, 17 figure

A Poissonian explanation for heavy-tails in e-mail communication

Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides an attractive proxy for studying human activity. Recently, it was reported that the probability density for the inter-event time $\tau$ between consecutively sent e-mails decays asymptotically as $\tau^{-\alpha}$, with $\alpha \approx 1$. The slower than exponential decay of the inter-event time distribution suggests that deliberate human activity is inherently non-Poissonian. Here, we demonstrate that the approximate power-law scaling of the inter-event time distribution is a consequence of circadian and weekly cycles of human activity. We propose a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson process which explicitly integrates these periodic patterns in activity with an individual's tendency to continue participating in an activity. Using standard statistical techniques, we show that our model is consistent with the empirical data. Our findings may also provide insight into the origins of heavy-tailed distributions in other complex systems.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure