Constructing Metropolis-Hastings proposals using damped BFGS updates

The computation of Bayesian estimates of system parameters and functions of them on the basis of observed system performance data is a common problem within system identification. This is a previously studied issue where stochastic simulation approaches have been examined using the popular Metropolis--Hastings (MH) algorithm. This prior study has identified a recognised difficulty of tuning the {proposal distribution so that the MH method provides realisations with sufficient mixing to deliver efficient convergence. This paper proposes and empirically examines a method of tuning the proposal using ideas borrowed from the numerical optimisation literature around efficient computation of Hessians so that gradient and curvature information of the target posterior can be incorporated in the proposal.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the 18th IFAC Symposium on System Identification (SYSID

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Sex Differences in Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Tuberculosis Transmission and Control.

Social contact patterns might contribute to excess burden of tuberculosis in men. We conducted a study of social contact surveys to evaluate contact patterns relevant to tuberculosis transmission. Available data describe 21 surveys in 17 countries and show profound differences in sex-based and age-based patterns of contact. Adults reported more adult contacts than children. Children preferentially mixed with women in all surveys (median sex assortativity 58%, interquartile range [IQR] 57%-59% for boys, 61% [IQR 60%-63%] for girls). Men and women reported sex-assortative mixing in 80% and 95% of surveys (median sex assortativity 56% [IQR 54%-58%] for men, 59% [IQR 57%-63%] for women). Sex-specific patterns of contact with adults were similar at home and outside the home for children; adults reported greater sex assortativity outside the home in most surveys. Sex assortativity in adult contacts likely contributes to sex disparities in adult tuberculosis burden by amplifying incidence among men

Legal framework of antimicrobial stewardship in hospitals (LEASH) : a European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) cross-sectional international survey

Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is the cornerstone activity in the combat against antimicrobial resistance. In order to ensure sustainable deployment and development of AMS, a strategic and regulatory framework needs to be provided by national healthcare authorities. Experts from 32 European countries, Israel and Turkey were invited to participate in a cross-sectional internet-based survey from October 2016 to May 2017 on the legal framework and mandatory components (structures, activities) of AMS in hospitals, i.e. components required by legislation or regulations. We collected data from 25 countries and two regions (in countries with federal health administration). Laws regulating AMS existed in seven countries and one region. Other health ministry regulations were applicable in 13 countries and one region. National strategies and/or action plans approved by ministries of health were in place in 13 countries and one region. Conversely, five countries and one region had no regulation of AMS in hospitals. Funding for AMS in hospitals was provided in five countries and one region. Eight countries and one region reported mandatory AMS structures and activities complying with the Transatlantic Taskforce on Antimicrobial Resistance (TATFAR) structure, policy and practice indicators. In 10/27 cases, however, the mandatory AMS activities were not being fully carried out. The survey showed heterogeneous legal frameworks for AMS in hospitals, and in many countries it was even lacking. The situation may be critical in countries with poor control of antimicrobial use and resistance. Recent international initiatives calling on policy-makers to address the threat of antimicrobial resistance could yield improvement.peer-reviewe

PPARγ Controls Dectin-1 Expression Required for Host Antifungal Defense against Candida albicans

We recently showed that IL-13 or peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ (PPARγ) ligands attenuate Candida albicans colonization of the gastrointestinal tract. Here, using a macrophage-specific Dectin-1 deficient mice model, we demonstrate that Dectin-1 is essential to control fungal gastrointestinal infection by PPARγ ligands. We also show that the phagocytosis of yeast and the release of reactive oxygen intermediates in response to Candida albicans challenge are impaired in macrophages from Dectin-1 deficient mice treated with PPARγ ligands or IL-13. Although the Mannose Receptor is not sufficient to trigger antifungal functions during the alternative activation of macrophages, our data establish the involvement of the Mannose Receptor in the initial recognition of non-opsonized Candida albicans by macrophages. We also demonstrate for the first time that the modulation of Dectin-1 expression by IL-13 involves the PPARγ signaling pathway. These findings are consistent with a crucial role for PPARγ in the alternative activation of macrophages by Th2 cytokines. Altogether these data suggest that PPARγ ligands may be of therapeutic value in esophageal and gastrointestinal candidiasis in patients severely immunocompromised or with metabolic diseases in whom the prevalence of candidiasis is considerable

Spadin, a Sortilin-Derived Peptide, Targeting Rodent TREK-1 Channels: A New Concept in the Antidepressant Drug Design

We found that spadin, a natural peptide derived from sortilin, blocks the mouse TREK-1 channel and might be an efficient and fast-acting antidepressant

Modélisation de la transmission d'agents infectieux à partir de données de contact françaises

The economic evaluation of new vaccines requires the modeling of infectious disease transmission within a population, which in turn requires some assumption of specific mixing patterns. Matrixes generated from social contact studies were determined for 8 European countries. To date, no such data exist for France. The ComesF study (Contact Matrix Estimation – France) aimed to fill this gap.MethodologyThe survey was carried out over 3 different periods (Feb-Mar, Apr, Apr-May) with 278 participants common to the first and the last periods. Participants had to list all their contacts for 2 consecutive days in a diary, with the age, sex, location, frequency, type and duration of the contact, from which we estimated French contact matrixes.Combining cross-sectional serological surveys from 2009 and 2013 and vaccine coverage information, we have determined an optimal model for the serology of measles, mumps and rubella for the year of the data collection; age-dependent susceptibility by department was then derived to the year of interest (2016), and effective reproduction number and age-dependent relative incidence of a potential outbreak were estimated using the French contact matrixes.We analysed the influence of meteorological conditions on the temporal variations in mixing patterns. The population of the study was split according to the day and the weather at the time when the diary was filled in. The mean number of contacts and the potential for transmission summarized with R0 were calculated for type and location of contact under different weather conditions.We conducted a systematic review on gender differences in infection focusing on influenza, measles, mumps and rubella. Finally, we provided an exploration of the impact of gender on mixing patterns, and eventually the potential implication for modelling.ResultsThe 2033 participants reported 38 881 contacts (weighted median [first quartile-third quartile]: 8[5–14] per day), and 54 378 contacts with supplementary professional contacts (9[5–17]). Contrary to age, gender, household size, holidays, weekend and occupation, the period of the year had little influence on the number of contacts or the mixing patterns. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age, irrespective of the location of the contact, and gender, with women having 8% more contacts than men. Although most contacts occurred at home and school, the inclusion of professional contacts modified the structure of the mixing patterns. Holidays and weekends reduced the number of contacts dramatically, and as proxies for school closure, reduced R0 by 33% and 28%, respectively.The risk for Mumps and Rubella mainly concerned southeastern and south central France, while the risk for measles was more scattered over the country. Risk differed with gender for Measles and Rubella. Besides infants under 1, the highest share of participation would concern teenagers and young adults.The weather had a differential effect on social mixing according to the type of day, notably weekdays and weekend. But correction for repeated analysis made some results no more significant, although the trend for a differential effect between weekdays and weekend remained.Gender differences in social mixing might explain some gender differences in infectious disease epidemiology. Using gender-specific susceptibility and gender-specific contact matrixes had a significant impact on the result of the modeling. Despite the differences, French contact matrixes shared many aspects with those of other European countries. Notably, school closures were likely to have a substantial impact on the spread of close contact infections in France. While the risk of a new Measles outbreak persists, it predominates for Mumps. The effect of weather on social mixing was mild, if not negligible. Gender differences in modelling should be emphasized.L'évaluation économique de nouveaux vaccins exige de modéliser la transmission infectieuse au sein de la population, et donc des hypothèses sur la structure et la répartition des contacts. Les matrices de contact obtenues à partir d’enquête de population ont été déterminées pour 8 pays européens. Mais aucune donnée de ce type n'existe à ce jour pour la France. L’étude ComesF (Contact Matrix Estimation – France) vise à combler cette lacune.MéthodologieL'enquête s’est effectuée sur 3 périodes (Février-Mars, Avril, Mai-Avril) avec 278 participants communs à la première et dernière période. Les participants devaient rapporter tous leurs contacts au cours de 2 jours consécutifs dans un journal, avec l'âge, le sexe, l'endroit, la fréquence, le type et la durée du contact.En combinant des enquêtes sérologiques de 2009 et 2013 et les données de couverture vaccinales, nous avons modélisé la séroprévalence de la rougeole, des oreillons et de la rubéole; puis extrapolé la susceptibilité selon l’âge par département à l'année d'intérêt (2016) ; enfin le potentiel épidémique et l'incidence relative selon l’âge d'une future épidémie ont été estimés.Nous avons analysé l'influence de conditions météorologiques sur les variations temporelles des matrices de contact. La population de l'étude a été analysée selon le jour et la météorologie pour estimer le nombre moyen de contacts et le potentiel de transmission estimée avec le R0. Nous avons effectué une revue systématique de la littérature sur les différences selon le genre pour la grippe, la rougeole, les oreillons et la rubéole, puis exploré l'impact du genre sur les matrices de contact et la modélisation des maladies infectieuses.Résultats2033 participants ont rapporté 38881 contacts (médiane pondérée [premier quartile-troisième quartile] : 8 [5–14] par jour) et 54378 contacts avec les contacts professionnels supplémentaires (9 [5–17]). Contrairement à l'âge, le genre, la taille du foyer, les vacances scolaires, le week-end et l'activité professionnelle, la période de l'année influait peu le nombre de contacts ou les schémas de contact. Les schémas de contact étaient influencés par l'âge indépendamment du lieu de contact, et par le genre, les femmes ayant 8 % plus de contacts que les hommes. La plupart des contacts avaient lieu à la maison et à l'école, mais l'ajout des contacts professionnels modifiait la structure des schémas de contact. Les vacances scolaires et les week-ends réduisaient le nombre de contacts, et le R0 de 33 % et de 28 %, respectivement. Le risque pour les Oreillons et la Rubéole concerne surtout le Sud Est et le Centre de la France, alors que le risque pour la rougeole est plus dispersé. Le risque varie avec le genre pour la Rougeole et la Rubéole. Outre les bébés < 1 an, l’épidémie toucherait surtout les adolescents et les jeunes adultes.Les conditions météorologiques influençaient les schémas de contact différemment entre les jours de semaine ou les weekends. La correction pour analyse répétée limitait le nombre de résultats significatif, mais la tendance pour un effet de la météorologie variant entre les jours de semaine et le week-end restait.Les différences de genre dans le schéma de contact pourraient expliquer en partie les différences de genre dans l'épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses. L'utilisation de données spécifiques par genre avait un impact significatif sur le résultat de la modélisation du risque d’une épidémie.Les matrices de contact françaises partageaient de nombreux points communs avec les autres matrices européennes, notamment avec un impact substantiel des fermetures d’école en cas d’épidémie sur la progression de l’épidémie. Le risque d'une nouvelle épidémie de rougeole persiste, mais prédomine pour les oreillons. L'effet des conditions climatiques sur les schémas de contact était modeste, voire négligeable. L’utilisation des données spécifiques par genre est à considérer en modélisation

Modélisation de la transmission d'agents infectieux à partir de données de contact françaises

L'évaluation économique de nouveaux vaccins exige de modéliser la transmission infectieuse au sein de la population, et donc des hypothèses sur la structure et la répartition des contacts. Les matrices de contact obtenues à partir d’enquête de population ont été déterminées pour 8 pays européens. Mais aucune donnée de ce type n'existe à ce jour pour la France. L’étude ComesF (Contact Matrix Estimation – France) vise à combler cette lacune.MéthodologieL'enquête s’est effectuée sur 3 périodes (Février-Mars, Avril, Mai-Avril) avec 278 participants communs à la première et dernière période. Les participants devaient rapporter tous leurs contacts au cours de 2 jours consécutifs dans un journal, avec l'âge, le sexe, l'endroit, la fréquence, le type et la durée du contact.En combinant des enquêtes sérologiques de 2009 et 2013 et les données de couverture vaccinales, nous avons modélisé la séroprévalence de la rougeole, des oreillons et de la rubéole; puis extrapolé la susceptibilité selon l’âge par département à l'année d'intérêt (2016) ; enfin le potentiel épidémique et l'incidence relative selon l’âge d'une future épidémie ont été estimés.Nous avons analysé l'influence de conditions météorologiques sur les variations temporelles des matrices de contact. La population de l'étude a été analysée selon le jour et la météorologie pour estimer le nombre moyen de contacts et le potentiel de transmission estimée avec le R0. Nous avons effectué une revue systématique de la littérature sur les différences selon le genre pour la grippe, la rougeole, les oreillons et la rubéole, puis exploré l'impact du genre sur les matrices de contact et la modélisation des maladies infectieuses.Résultats2033 participants ont rapporté 38881 contacts (médiane pondérée [premier quartile-troisième quartile] : 8 [5–14] par jour) et 54378 contacts avec les contacts professionnels supplémentaires (9 [5–17]). Contrairement à l'âge, le genre, la taille du foyer, les vacances scolaires, le week-end et l'activité professionnelle, la période de l'année influait peu le nombre de contacts ou les schémas de contact. Les schémas de contact étaient influencés par l'âge indépendamment du lieu de contact, et par le genre, les femmes ayant 8 % plus de contacts que les hommes. La plupart des contacts avaient lieu à la maison et à l'école, mais l'ajout des contacts professionnels modifiait la structure des schémas de contact. Les vacances scolaires et les week-ends réduisaient le nombre de contacts, et le R0 de 33 % et de 28 %, respectivement. Le risque pour les Oreillons et la Rubéole concerne surtout le Sud Est et le Centre de la France, alors que le risque pour la rougeole est plus dispersé. Le risque varie avec le genre pour la Rougeole et la Rubéole. Outre les bébés < 1 an, l’épidémie toucherait surtout les adolescents et les jeunes adultes.Les conditions météorologiques influençaient les schémas de contact différemment entre les jours de semaine ou les weekends. La correction pour analyse répétée limitait le nombre de résultats significatif, mais la tendance pour un effet de la météorologie variant entre les jours de semaine et le week-end restait.Les différences de genre dans le schéma de contact pourraient expliquer en partie les différences de genre dans l'épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses. L'utilisation de données spécifiques par genre avait un impact significatif sur le résultat de la modélisation du risque d’une épidémie.Les matrices de contact françaises partageaient de nombreux points communs avec les autres matrices européennes, notamment avec un impact substantiel des fermetures d’école en cas d’épidémie sur la progression de l’épidémie. Le risque d'une nouvelle épidémie de rougeole persiste, mais prédomine pour les oreillons. L'effet des conditions climatiques sur les schémas de contact était modeste, voire négligeable. L’utilisation des données spécifiques par genre est à considérer en modélisation.The economic evaluation of new vaccines requires the modeling of infectious disease transmission within a population, which in turn requires some assumption of specific mixing patterns. Matrixes generated from social contact studies were determined for 8 European countries. To date, no such data exist for France. The ComesF study (Contact Matrix Estimation – France) aimed to fill this gap.MethodologyThe survey was carried out over 3 different periods (Feb-Mar, Apr, Apr-May) with 278 participants common to the first and the last periods. Participants had to list all their contacts for 2 consecutive days in a diary, with the age, sex, location, frequency, type and duration of the contact, from which we estimated French contact matrixes.Combining cross-sectional serological surveys from 2009 and 2013 and vaccine coverage information, we have determined an optimal model for the serology of measles, mumps and rubella for the year of the data collection; age-dependent susceptibility by department was then derived to the year of interest (2016), and effective reproduction number and age-dependent relative incidence of a potential outbreak were estimated using the French contact matrixes.We analysed the influence of meteorological conditions on the temporal variations in mixing patterns. The population of the study was split according to the day and the weather at the time when the diary was filled in. The mean number of contacts and the potential for transmission summarized with R0 were calculated for type and location of contact under different weather conditions.We conducted a systematic review on gender differences in infection focusing on influenza, measles, mumps and rubella. Finally, we provided an exploration of the impact of gender on mixing patterns, and eventually the potential implication for modelling.ResultsThe 2033 participants reported 38 881 contacts (weighted median [first quartile-third quartile]: 8[5–14] per day), and 54 378 contacts with supplementary professional contacts (9[5–17]). Contrary to age, gender, household size, holidays, weekend and occupation, the period of the year had little influence on the number of contacts or the mixing patterns. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age, irrespective of the location of the contact, and gender, with women having 8% more contacts than men. Although most contacts occurred at home and school, the inclusion of professional contacts modified the structure of the mixing patterns. Holidays and weekends reduced the number of contacts dramatically, and as proxies for school closure, reduced R0 by 33% and 28%, respectively.The risk for Mumps and Rubella mainly concerned southeastern and south central France, while the risk for measles was more scattered over the country. Risk differed with gender for Measles and Rubella. Besides infants under 1, the highest share of participation would concern teenagers and young adults.The weather had a differential effect on social mixing according to the type of day, notably weekdays and weekend. But correction for repeated analysis made some results no more significant, although the trend for a differential effect between weekdays and weekend remained.Gender differences in social mixing might explain some gender differences in infectious disease epidemiology. Using gender-specific susceptibility and gender-specific contact matrixes had a significant impact on the result of the modeling. Despite the differences, French contact matrixes shared many aspects with those of other European countries. Notably, school closures were likely to have a substantial impact on the spread of close contact infections in France. While the risk of a new Measles outbreak persists, it predominates for Mumps. The effect of weather on social mixing was mild, if not negligible. Gender differences in modelling should be emphasized

Count of missing data for the SAS datafile

<p>Missing data counting for the SAS datafile</p

Data munging

<p>Data munging used for the Comes-F study</p

file preparation

<p>Preparation of the files, based on the raw datafile</p