Rationale, design, and implementation protocol of an electronic health record integrated clinical prediction rule (iCPR) randomized trial in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) represent well-validated but underutilized evidence-based medicine tools at the point-of-care. To date, an inability to integrate these rules into an electronic health record (EHR) has been a major limitation and we are not aware of a study demonstrating the use of CPR's in an ambulatory EHR setting. The integrated clinical prediction rule (iCPR) trial integrates two CPR's in an EHR and assesses both the usability and the effect on evidence-based practice in the primary care setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multi-disciplinary design team was assembled to develop a prototype iCPR for validated streptococcal pharyngitis and bacterial pneumonia CPRs. The iCPR tool was built as an active Clinical Decision Support (CDS) tool that can be triggered by user action during typical workflow. Using the EHR CDS toolkit, the iCPR risk score calculator was linked to tailored ordered sets, documentation, and patient instructions. The team subsequently conducted two levels of 'real world' usability testing with eight providers per group. Usability data were used to refine and create a production tool. Participating primary care providers (n = 149) were randomized and intervention providers were trained in the use of the new iCPR tool. Rates of iCPR tool triggering in the intervention and control (simulated) groups are monitored and subsequent use of the various components of the iCPR tool among intervention encounters is also tracked. The primary outcome is the difference in antibiotic prescribing rates (strep and pneumonia iCPR's encounters) and chest x-rays (pneumonia iCPR only) between intervention and control providers.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Using iterative usability testing and development paired with provider training, the iCPR CDS tool leverages user-centered design principles to overcome pervasive underutilization of EBM and support evidence-based practice at the point-of-care. The ongoing trial will determine if this collaborative process will lead to higher rates of utilization and EBM guided use of antibiotics and chest x-ray's in primary care.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01386047">NCT01386047</a></p

Meibum Lipid Composition in Asians with Dry Eye Disease

10.1371/journal.pone.0024339PLoS ONE610

Perforación profunda en el lago de Chalco: Reporte técnico

En este artículo se presenta un resumen de las actividades realizadas para la recuperación de la totalidad de la secuencia lacustre del lago de Chalco. Mediante estudios geofísicos se determinó la distribución y espesor de los sedimentos lacustres con base en lo cual se seleccionó el sitio de perforación. Con datos de los espectros H/V de sísmica pasiva se hizo un mapa de isofrecuencias que definieron una región con sedimentos lacustres y material volcánico granulado de hasta 300 m de espesor. El uso de métodos electromagnéticos mostró cambios en la resistividad eléctrica relacionados con variaciones en la composición de la columna sedimentaria; entre 100 – 120 m de profundidad hay un primer aumento en la resistividad asociado al incremento de materiales volcaniclásticos, y entre 330 – 400 m de profundidad un segundo aumento asociado a la presencia de coladas de basalto. Fueron perforados tres pozos con recuperación continua, llegando a profundidades de 420 m en el pozo A, 310 m en el B y 520 en el C. Durante el trabajo de perforación se tomaron muestras para el análisis geomicrobiológicos y de metagenómica. Durante el proceso de perforación se recuperó un total de 1152 m de sedimentos con una profundidad máxima de 520 m. El porcentaje de recuperación de la columna sedimentaria varió entre 88 a 92 % en los tres sondeos. Los resultados del análisis de susceptibilidad magnética en las tres secuencias indica que los primeros 260 m son sedimentos lacustres, entre 260 y 300 m los sedimentos son más gruesos y debajo de los 300 m son predominantemente volcaniclásticos. El análisis de la secuencia sedimentaria del lago de Chalco de los últimos ~300000 años, permitirá documentar y ampliar el conocimiento acerca de la variabilidad climática de la zona, la historia paleoambiental, la historia del cierre de la cuenca, el desarrollo del sistema lacustre y la recurrencia de la actividad volcánica en la cuenca. Además, el estudio de las propiedades físicas de esta secuencia sedimentaria es importante para la modelación de la propagación de ondas sísmicas y de la estructura de la cuenca, así como para mejorar la capacidad de modelación del proceso de subsidencia del terreno que experimenta esta región. This paper presents a short description of the coring operations undertaken to recover the full lacustrine sedimentary sequence from Chalco. Geophysical techniques were used to determine the distribution and thickness of the sediments in order to select the drilling site. Resonance frequencies determined from H/V spectral ratios were used to determine an area where lake sediments reached 300 m thickness. Electromagnetic survey showed two changes in electric resistivity which were related to changes in sediment composition, the first from 100 to 120 m, related to an increase in volcanoclastic sediments and the second from 330 to 400 m related to the presence of a basaltic flows. Three wells were drilled with continuous recovery, reaching depths of 420 m in well A, 310 in B and 520 in C. Samples for geomicrobiological and metagenomics studies were collected during drilling operations. A total of 1152 m of core sediments were recovered reaching a maximum depth of 520 m. Recovery percentages were between 88 and 92 % in the three wells. Magnetic susceptibility analyses in the three sequences show that the first 260 m are mostly lake sediments, between 260 and 300 m sediments are coarser and below 300 m they are mostly volcaniclastic. Analysis of the sedimentary sequence of Lake Chalco that covers the last ~300000 years will allow documenting and extending the knowledge of climate variability in area, the paleoenvironmental history, basin closure history, lacustrian system development and volcanic activity recurrence. Studies of the physical properties of this sequence will be important for seismic propagation and basin structure modeling, and also will improve modeling of the subsidence process that this region experiences

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning