Attribution of chemistry-climate model initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6 µm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry–climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present-day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6 µm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical middle and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mW m−2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mW m−2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mW m−2). We found that the atmospheric component (AM3) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model and Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to different processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is −133±98  mW m−2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation

Investigating multiscale meteorological controls and impact of soil moisture heterogeneity on radiation fog in complex terrain using semi-idealised simulations

Coupled surface–atmosphere high-resolution mesoscale simulations were carried out to understand meteorological processes involved in the radiation fog life cycle in a city surrounded by complex terrain. The controls of mesoscale meteorology and microscale soil moisture heterogeneity on fog were investigated using case studies for the city of ¯Otautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand. Numerical model simulations from the synop- tic to microscale were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Parallelised Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM). Heterogeneous soil moisture, land use, and topography were included. The spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture was derived using Landsat 8 satellite imagery and ground-based me- teorological observations. Nine semi-idealised simulations were carried out under identical meteorological conditions. One contained homogeneous soil moisture of about 0.31 m$^3$ m$^{−3}$, with two other simulations of halved and doubled soil moisture to demonstrate the range of soil moisture impact. Another contained heterogeneous soil moisture derived from Landsat 8 imagery. For the other five simulations, the soil moisture heterogeneity magnitudes were amplified following the observed spatial distribution to aid our understanding of the impact of soil moisture heterogeneity. Analysis using pseudo-process diagrams and accumulated latent heat flux shows significant spatial heterogeneity of processes involved in the simulated fog. Our results showed that soil mois- ture heterogeneity did not significantly change the general spatial structure of near-surface fog occurrence, even when the heterogeneity signal was amplified and/or when the soil moisture was halved and doubled. However, compared to homogeneous soil moisture, spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture can lead to changes in fog duration. These changes can be more than 50 min, although they are not directly correlated with spatial variations in soil moisture. The simulations showed that the mesoscale (10 to 200 km) meteorology controls the location of fog occurrence, while soil moisture heterogeneity alters fog duration at the microscale on the order of 100 m to 1 km. Our results highlight the importance of including soil moisture heterogeneity for accurate spatiotemporal fog forecasting

Messina (\u3cem\u3eMelilotus siculus\u3c/em\u3e)–A New Pasture Legume for Saltland

Messina (Melilotus siculus ((Turra) Vitman ex B.D. Jacks)) is a new annual pasture legume for saltland in temperate Australia and regions of the world that experience Mediterranean climates. Messina has greater tolerance to the combined stresses of salinity and water-logging than existing commercial pasture legumes. Coupled with desirable agronomic traits these characteristics give messina the capacity to rehabilitate saltland and increase productivity on land where existing legumes fail. This paper reviews the agronomic perform-ance of messina in relation to top soil salinity levels

Making Decisions to Identify Forage Shrub Species for Versatile Grazing Systems

Grazing systems in many parts of the world face large challenges, including a declining natural resource base (e.g. soil fertility), marked fluctuations in feed production across seasons and years, climate change (including the contribution of greenhouse gases from livestock), and market demands for sustainable and ethical production systems. The ‘Enrich’ project was established in Australia (Revell et al. 2008; Bennell et al. 2010) within this broad context of emerging challenges to explore the potential of using Australian native perennial shrub species as part of the feedbase for sheep and cattle in southern Australia. The underlying rationale was to: add perennial shrub species into the existing annual-based pasture feedbase so that the forage system could tolerate extended dry periods but provide green edible plant material during periods where a ‘feed gap’ would otherwise exist; be productive on marginal soils where other productive options are limited (Masters et al. 2010); and have a positive effect on gut function and health (Vercoe et al. 2007); i.e. a versatile grazing system. This paper outlines the research approach that was taken, and reports on a ‘decision tree’ to prioritise species from an initial large list, based on a wide range of plant characteristics and how they can be used in a grazing system

Computational models as predictors of HIV treatment outcomes for the Phidisa cohort in South Africa

Background: Selecting the optimal combination of HIV drugs for an individual in resourcelimited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotyping.Objective: The evaluation as a potential treatment support tool of computational models that predict response to therapy without a genotype, using cases from the Phidisa cohort in South Africa.Methods: Cases from Phidisa of treatment change following failure were identified that had the following data available: baseline CD4 count and viral load, details of failing and previous antiretroviral drugs, drugs in new regimen and time to follow-up. The HIV Resistance Response Database Initiative’s (RDI’s) models used these data to predict the probability of a viral load < 50 copies/mL at follow-up. The models were also used to identify effective alternative combinations of three locally available drugs.Results: The models achieved accuracy (area under the receiver–operator  characteristic curve) of 0.72 when predicting response to therapy, which is less accurate than for an independent global test set (0.80) but at least comparable to that of genotyping with rules-based interpretation. The models were able to identify alternative locally available three-drug regimens that were predicted to be effective in 69% of all cases and 62% of those whose new treatment failed in the clinic.Conclusion: The predictive accuracy of the models for these South African patients together with the results of previous studies suggest that the RDI’s models have the potential to optimise treatment selection and reduce virological failure in different patient populations, without the use of a genotype

Cryptic complexity in felid vertebral evolution: shape differentiation and allometry of the axial skeleton

Members of the mammalian family Felidae (extant and extinct cats) are grossly phenotypically similar, but display a 300-fold range in body size, from less than 1 kg to more than 300 kg. In addition to differences in body mass, felid species show dietary and locomotory specializations that correlate to skull and limb osteological measurements, such as shape or cross-sectional area. However, ecological correlates to the axial skeleton are yet untested. Here, we build on previous studies of the biomechanical and morphological evolution of the felid appendicular skeleton by conducting a quantitative analysis of morphology and allometry in the presacral vertebral column across extant cats. Our results demonstrate that vertebral columns of arboreal, scansorial and terrestrial felids significantly differ in morphology, specifically in the lumbar region, while no distinction based on dietary specialization was found. Body size significantly influences vertebral morphology, with clear regionalization of allometry along the vertebral column, suggesting that anterior (cervicals and thoracics) and posterior (lumbar) vertebrae may be independently subjected to distinct selection pressures

Does a 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine prevent respiratory exacerbations in children with recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis, chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis: protocol for a randomised c

BackgroundRecurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis are characterised by a chronic wet cough and are important causes of childhood respiratory morbidity globally. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the most commonly associated pathogens. As respiratory exacerbations impair quality of life and may be associated with disease progression, we will determine if the novel 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) reduces exacerbations in these children. MethodsA multi-centre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in tertiary paediatric centres from three Australian cities is planned. Two hundred six children aged 18 months to 14 years with recurrent PBB, CSLD or bronchiectasis will be randomised to receive either two doses of PHiD-CV or control meningococcal (ACYW135) conjugate vaccine 2 months apart and followed for 12 months after the second vaccine dose. Randomisation will be stratified by site, age (<6 years and ≥6 years) and aetiology (recurrent PBB or CSLD/bronchiectasis). Clinical histories, respiratory status (including spirometry in children aged ≥6 years), nasopharyngeal and saliva swabs, and serum will be collected at baseline and at 2, 3, 8 and 14 months post-enrolment. Local and systemic reactions will be recorded on daily diaries for 7 and 30 days, respectively, following each vaccine dose and serious adverse events monitored throughout the trial. Fortnightly, parental contact will help record respiratory exacerbations. The primary outcome is the incidence of respiratory exacerbations in the 12 months following the second vaccine dose. Secondary outcomes include: nasopharyngeal carriage of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine- related serotypes; systemic and mucosal immune responses to H. influenzae proteins and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; impact upon lung function in children aged ≥6 years; and vaccine safety. DiscussionAs H. influenzae is the most common bacterial pathogen associated with these chronic respiratory diseases in children, a novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that also impacts upon H. influenzae and helps prevent respiratory exacerbations would assist clinical management with potential short- and long-term health benefits. Our study will be the first to assess vaccine efficacy targeting H. influenzae in children with recurrent PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis