Bayesian inference on the memory parameter for Gamma-modulated regression models

CNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOIn this work, we propose a Bayesian methodology to make inferences for the memory parameter and other characteristics under non-standard assumptions for a class of stochastic processes. This class generalizes the Gamma-modulated process, with trajectories that exhibit long memory behavior, as well as decreasing variability as time increases. Different values of the memory parameter influence the speed of this decrease, making this heteroscedastic model very flexible. Its properties are used to implement an approximate Bayesian computation and MCMC scheme to obtain posterior estimates. We test and validate our method through simulations and real data from the big earthquake that occurred in 2010 in Chile.In this work, we propose a Bayesian methodology to make inferences for the memory parameter and other characteristics under non-standard assumptions for a class of stochastic processes. This class generalizes the Gamma-modulated process, with trajectories that exhibit long memory behavior, as well as decreasing variability as time increases. Different values of the memory parameter influence the speed of this decrease, making this heteroscedastic model very flexible. Its properties are used to implement an approximate Bayesian computation and MCMC scheme to obtain posterior estimates. We test and validate our method through simulations and real data from the big earthquake that occurred in 2010 in Chile.171065766597CNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOCNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOCNPq [141048/2013-1]FAPESP [2013/07699-0]141048/2013-

O AMBIENTE ESCOLAR E OS TRANSTORNOS GLOBAIS DO DESENVOLVIMENTO NA PRÁTICA

ABSTRACT: This article will address the theme of global disorders in the school environment, the practice of treatment, the lack of specialization of education and family professionals, as well as other items to be noted. It will be the nomenclature used by the world organization of mental health, this conception is also based on Brazilian legislation defending the non-exclusion of students with Special educational needs in the case of TGD. There are no specific tests to diagnose and confirm TGD, the instruments currently only serve to assist, guide and clarify investigative clinical reasoning.RESUMEN: Este artículo abordará la temática de los trastornos globales en el entorno escolar, la práctica del tratamiento, la falta de especialización de los profesionales de la educación y la familia, así como otros puntos a destacar. Será la nomenclatura utilizada por la organización mundial de salud mental, esta concepción también se basa en la legislación brasileña que defiende la no exclusión de los estudiantes con necesidades educativas especiales en el caso de TGD. No existen pruebas específicas para diagnosticar y confirmar TGD, los instrumentos actualmente solo sirven para ayudar, orientar y aclarar el razonamiento clínico investigativo.RESUMO: O presente artigo abordará a temática dos transtornos globais no ambiente escolar, a prática errônea de tratamento, a falta de especialização dos profissionais da educação e da família, bem como outros itens a notar. Tratar-se-á da nomenclatura utilizada pela organização mundial de saúde mental, essa concepção é fundamentada também na legislação brasileira defendendo a não exclusão de alunos com necessidades educacionais Especiais no caso TGD. Não existem testes específicos para diagnosticar e confirmar os TGD, os instrumentos utilizados atualmente servem apenas para auxiliar, orientar e fornecer esclarecimentos no raciocínio clínico investigativo

RURALIDAD-AGRARIA-CAMPESINA, OPCIÓN O SOBREVIVENCIA EN LA PROVINCIA DE MANABÍ

A lo rural se lo ha concebido tradicionalmente como una amplia área terrestre donde reside el campo agropecuario y la población que sostiene estas actividades, es por esto que adolece hasta ahora de una pertinente construcción socio-espacial, que sigue anclada a la comunalidad dispersa habitacionalmente y desatendida en sus bienes básicos, ausente de políticas que cambien el estado de reproducción material, y se ponga en perspectiva la afirmación de la ruralidad como un espacio construido, más allá del asignado lugar de reserva agroalimentaria y de protección ambiental de los contextos locales-nacionales; este rural necesita ser predestinado como fuente de vida, opción productiva y habitacional amigable con su contexto natural a tono con los enfoques del desarrollo planetario, nacional y específicamente local, en el cual tenga incidencia la población nativa, concordante con la gobernanza estatal, más aun la necesaria territorial; por lo que el presente trabajo se acerca a determinar el estado situacional, y los alcances o limitaciones de las políticas o acciones de la estatalidad hacia la ruralidad como componente clave para el desarrollo estratégico y territorial en la provincia de Manabí.PALABRAS CLAVE: lo rural; dimensión espacial-territorial; opción de vida o sobrevivencia.RURALITY-AGRARIA-PEASANT, OPTION OR SURVIVAL IN THE PROVINCE OF MANABÍABSTRACTRural has traditionally been conceived as a large land area where the agricultural field resides and the population that supports these activities, which is why it suffers up to now from a relevant socio-spatial construction, which is still anchored to the dispersed communality of housing and neglected in its basic goods, absent from policies that change the state of material reproduction, and the affirmation of rurality as a built space is put into perspective, beyond the assigned place of agri-food reserve and environmental protection of local-national contexts ; This rural area needs to be predestined as a source of life, a productive and residential option that is friendly to its natural context in tune with the approaches of planetary, national and specifically local development, in which the native population has an incidence, consistent with state governance, even more the necessary territorial; reason why the present work approaches to determine the situational state, and the scope or limitations of the policies or actions of statehood towards rurality as a key component for strategic and territorial development in the province of Manabí.KEYWORDS: the rural; spatial-territorial dimension; choice of life or survival

Gene flow in transgenic soybean in the Cerrado region, Brazil

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a dispersão de pólen transgênico em soja. Plantas transgênicas de soja contendo os genes ahas, para tolerância ao herbicida imazapyr, e uidA (GUS), foram cultivadas com plantas não-transgênicas. A dispersão do pólen transgênico foi avaliada pela presença de ambos os genes dominantes na progênie de plantas não-transgênicas. A maior freqüência de disseminação de pólen transgênico foi observada na primeira linha, distante 0,5 m da parcela central (0,44% a 0,45%). Esta freqüência foi reduzida drasticamente na linha 2 (0,04% a 0,14%), atingindo 0 na linha 13, a 6,5 m da parcela central.The objective of this work was to evaluate pollen dispersal from transgenic to non-transgenic soybean plants. Non-transgenic soybean plants were cultivated surrounding transgenic soybean plants carrying the ahas (for herbicide tolerance against imazapyr) and gus genes. Pollen dispersal was evaluated by the presence of both dominant genes in the progenies of non-transgenic plants. The highest amount of transgenic pollen dissemination was observed in the first row, 0.5m distant from the central plot (0.44% to 0.45%). The frequency of pollen dispersion has drastically decreased in the row 2 (0.04% to 0.14%), reaching zero by the row 13, which was 6.5 m distant from the central plot

Efecto de la goma del muyuyo (cordia lutea) como agente estabilizante y en la vida útil del néctar de naranja (citrus x sinensis)

Muyuyo gum represents a good opportunity to replace chemical synthesis stabilizers that are widely used and bring future consequences. Therefore, the main objective of the research was to evaluate the effect of muyuyo gum (Cordia lutea) as a stabilizing agent and on the shelf life of orange nectar (Citrus X sinensis).  A completely randomized experimental design of four treatments with three repeats consisting of three concentrations plus a control (T0 – 0 % T1 – 2 %, T2 – 4 % and T3 - 6%) was applied. In each of the formulations elaborated, a sensory evaluation was carried out. The variables evaluated were sweetness, acidity and general appearance, for which a hedonic scale was used. The data were processed in the statistical program InfoStat, applying the non-parametric statistics and Kruskall Wallis test at 0,05 % significance, in the turbidity test a value of 1506,66 NTU (Nephelometric Turbidity Unit) was obtained, in treatment 1 and in treatment 2 1085,33 NTU, in the results of the physical-chemical analysis the following results were obtained; a pH of 3,37, 12.65 °Brix and a titratable acidity of 0,39. The microbiological behavior was evaluated in which T2 is the one that was given as adequate within the NTE 2 337:2008 standard. It was established that the variables Sweetness, Acidity and General Appearance were within the allowed range. It is necessary to consider that T2 (4 % muyuyo) in general is the treatment that behaves best compared to T0 (control). In what corresponds to the viscosity analysis, a range of 5,23 Pa.s was obtained which is within the established range. Therefore, it is established that muyuyo gum has stabilizing and nutritional properties which make it a promising natural food input.La goma del muyuyo (Cordia lutea) representa una buena oportunidad para reemplazar estabilizantes de síntesis química que son muy utilizados y traen consecuencias a futuro. Por lo tanto, el objetivo principal de la presente investigación fue evaluar el efecto de la goma del muyuyo (Cordia lutea) como agente estabilizante y en la vida útil del néctar de naranja (Citrus X sinensis). Se aplicó un diseño experimental completamente al azar, de cuatro tratamientos con tres repeticiones que consto de tres concentraciones más un control (T0 – 0 % T1- 2 %, T2 – 4 % y T3 – 6 %). En cada una de las formulaciones elaboradas se realizó una evaluación sensorial. Las variables evaluadas fueron dulzor, acidez y apariencia general, para ello se empleó una escala hedónica. Los datos fueron procesados en el programa estadístico InfoStat, aplicando la estadística no paramétrica y prueba de Kruskall Wallis al 0,05 % de significancia. En la prueba de turbidez se obtuvo un valor de 1506,66 NTU (Unidad de Turbidez Nefelométrica), en el tratamiento 1 y 2 1085,33 NTU. En el análisis físico químico se obtuvieron los siguientes resultados: un pH de 3,37; 12,65 ° Brix y una acidez titulable de 0,39. Se evaluó el comportamiento microbiológico, en el que T2 dio como adecuado por estar dentro de la norma NTE 2 337:2008. Se estableció que las variables dulzor, acidez y apariencia general estaban dentro del rango permitido. Es necesario considerar que el T2 (4 % muyuyo) es el tratamiento que mejor se comporta frente al T0 (control). En lo que corresponde al análisis de viscosidad se obtuvo un rango de 5,23 Pa.s que se encuentra dentro del rango establecido. Por lo cual, se instaura que la goma del muyuyo posee propiedades estabilizantes y nutricionales que lo hacen un insumo alimenticio natural prometedor

Consenso em criptococose - 2008

Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Div Clin Mol Infecciosas, Hosp Clin, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Dept Med, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Estadual Campinas, Hosp Clin, Inst Infectol Emilio Ribas, Campinas, SP, BrazilFundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Parasitol, Inst Pesquisa Clin Evandro Chagas, Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Fed Parana, Fac Med, Dept Saude Comunitaria, BR-80060000 Curitiba, Parana, BrazilUniv Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Fac Med, Dept Clin Med, Porto Alegre, RS, BrazilUniv Estadual Campinas, Fac Ciencias Med, Dept Clin Med, Sao Paulo, BrazilInst Doencas Trop Natan Portela, Teresina, PI, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Dept Mol Infecciosas & Parasitarias, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Estadual Campinas, Fac Ciencias Med, Dept Clin Med, Campinas, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Uberlandia, Fac Med, BR-38400 Uberlandia, MG, BrazilFac Med Triangulo Mineiro, Dept Clin Med, Uberaba, MG, BrazilInst Infectol Emilio Ribas, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Estadual Sao Paulo, Fac Med Botucatu, Dept Doencas Trop & Diagnost Imagem, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Fac Med Ribeirao Preto, Dept Clin Med, Ribeirao Preto, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Dept Med, Sao Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Evolutionary Heritage Influences Amazon Tree Ecology

Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high diversity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary diversity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change

Hyperdominance in Amazonian Forest Carbon Cycling

While Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, the abundance of trees is skewed strongly towards relatively few ‘hyperdominant’ species. In addition to their diversity, Amazonian trees are a key component of the global carbon cycle, assimilating and storing more carbon than any other ecosystem on Earth. Here we ask, using a unique data set of 530 forest plots, if the functions of storing and producing woody carbon are concentrated in a small number of tree species, whether the most abundant species also dominate carbon cycling, and whether dominant species are characterized by specific functional traits. We find that dominance of forest function is even more concentrated in a few species than is dominance of tree abundance, with only ≈1% of Amazon tree species responsible for 50% of carbon storage and productivity. Although those species that contribute most to biomass and productivity are often abundant, species maximum size is also influential, while the identity and ranking of dominant species varies by function and by region

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe