Improving the Estimates of International Space Station (ISS) Induced K-Factor Failure Rates for On-Orbit Replacement Unit (ORU) Supportability Analyses

This is a case study on revised estimates of induced failure for International Space Station (ISS) on-orbit replacement units (ORUs). We devise a heuristic to leverage operational experience data by aggregating ORU, associated function (vehicle sub -system), and vehicle effective' k-factors using actual failure experience. With this input, we determine a significant failure threshold and minimize the difference between the actual and predicted failure rates. We conclude with a discussion on both qualitative and quantitative improvements the heuristic methods and potential benefits to ISS supportability engineering analysis

Inorganic carbon and nutrient fluxes on the Arctic Shelf

Historic data from the Russian-American Hydrochemical Atlas of Arctic Ocean together with data from the TRANSDRIFT II 1994 and TUNDRA 1994 cruises have been used to assess the spatial and inter-annual variability of carbon and nutrient fluxes, as well as air–sea CO2 exchange in the Laptev and western East Siberian Seas during the summer season. Budget computations using summer data of dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) gives that the Laptev Sea shelf is a net sink of DIP and DIN of 2.5×106, 23.2×106 mol d−1, respectively, while it is a net source of DIC (excluding air–sea exchange) of 1249×106 mol d−1. In the East Siberian Seas the budget computations give 0.5×106, −11.4×106 and −173×106 mol d−1 (minus being a sink) for DIP, DIN, and DIC, respectively. In summers, the Laptev Sea Shelf is net autotrophic while the East-Siberian Sea Shelf is net heterotrophic, and both systems are weak net denitrifying. The Laptev Sea Shelf takes up 2.1 mmol CO2 m−2 d−1 from atmosphere, whereas the western part of the East-Siberian Sea Shelf loose 0.3 mmol CO2 m−2 d−1 to the atmosphere. The variability of DIP, DIN and DIC fluxes during summer in the different regions of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas depends on bottom topography, river runoff, exchange with surrounding seas and wind field

Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station Through 2020 and Beyond: Reassessing Confidence Targets for System Availability

The International Space Station (ISS) was originally designed to operate until 2015 with a plan for deorbiting the ISS in 2016. Currently, the international partnership has agreed to extend the operations until 2020 and discussions are underway to extend the life even further to 2028. Each partner is responsible for the sustaining engineering, sparing, and maintenance of their own segments. National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) challenge is to purchase the needed number of spares to maintain the functional availability of the ISS systems necessary for the United States On-Orbit Segment s contribution. This presentation introduces an analytical approach to assessing uncertainty in ISS hardware necessary to extend the life of the vehicle. Some key areas for consideration are: establishing what confidence targets are required to ensure science can be continuously carried out on the ISS, defining what confidence targets are reasonable to ensure vehicle survivability, considering what is required to determine if the confidence targets are too high, and whether sufficient number of spares are purchased. The results of the analysis will provide a methodological basis for reassessing vehicle subsystem confidence targets. This analysis compares the probability of existing spares exceeding the total expected unit demand of the Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) in functional hierarchies approximating the vehicle subsystems. In cases where the functional hierarchies' availability does not meet subsystem confidence targets, the analysis will further identify which ORUs may require additional spares to extend the life of the ISS. The resulting probability is dependent upon hardware reliability estimates. However, the ISS hardware fleet carries considerable epistemic uncertainty which must be factored into the development and execution of sparing risk postures. In addition, it is also recognized that uncertainty in the assessment is due to disconnects between modeled functions and actual subsystem operations. Perhaps most importantly, it is acknowledged that conservative confidence targets per subsystem are currently accepted. This presentation will also discuss how subsystem confidence targets may be relaxed based on calculating the level of uncertainty for each corresponding ORU-function. The presentation will conclude with the various strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life; 2020 and beyond

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-29-2022Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume trans port modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.The science was financially supported by: US National Science Foundation (Grant Number: GEO/PLR ARCSS 575 IAA#1417888), the Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA), the Swedish Research Council Formas (contract no. 2018-01398), and the Swedish Research Council (contract nos. 621-2006-3240, 621-2010-4084, and 2012-1680). This work was carried out with logistic support from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and from Swedish Polar Research Secretariat. The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources. This study was also supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant no. # 21-77-580 30001).The science was financially supported by: US National Science Foundation (Grant Number: GEO/PLR ARCSS 575 IAA#1417888), the Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA), the Swedish Re search Council Formas (contract no. 2018-01398), and the Swedish Research Council (contract nos. 621-2006-3240, 621-2010-4084, and 2012-1680). This work was carried out with logistic support from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and from Swedish Polar Research Secretariat. The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources. This study was also supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant no. # 21-77-580 30001)

The onset of neoglaciation in Iceland and the 4.2 ka event

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Strong similarities in Holocene climate reconstructions derived from multiple proxies (BSi, TOC – total organic carbon, δ13C, C∕N, MS – magnetic susceptibility, δ15N) preserved in sediments from both glacial and non-glacial lakes across Iceland indicate a relatively warm early to mid Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, overprinted with cold excursions presumably related to meltwater impact on North Atlantic circulation until 7.9 ka. Sediment in lakes from glacial catchments indicates their catchments were ice-free during this interval. Statistical treatment of the high-resolution multi-proxy paleoclimate lake records shows that despite great variability in catchment characteristics, the sediment records document more or less synchronous abrupt, cold departures as opposed to the smoothly decreasing trend in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Although all lake records document a decline in summer temperature through the Holocene consistent with the regular decline in summer insolation, the onset of significant summer cooling occurs ∼5 ka at high-elevation interior sites but is variably later at sites closer to the coast, suggesting that proximity to the sea may modulate the impact from decreasing summer insolation. The timing of glacier inception during the mid Holocene is determined by the descent of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), which is dominated by the evolution of summer temperature as summer insolation declined as well as changes in sea surface temperature for coastal glacial systems. The glacial response to the ELA decline is also highly dependent on the local topography. The initial ∼5 ka nucleation of Langjökull in the highlands of Iceland defines the onset of neoglaciation in Iceland. Subsequently, a stepwise expansion of both Langjökull and northeast Vatnajökull occurred between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, with a second abrupt expansion ∼3 ka. Due to its coastal setting and lower topographic threshold, the initial appearance of Drangajökull in the NW of Iceland was delayed until ∼2.3 ka. All lake records reflect abrupt summer temperature and catchment disturbance at ∼4.5 ka, statistically indistinguishable from the global 4.2 ka event, and a second widespread abrupt disturbance at 3.0 ka, similar to the stepwise expansion of Langjökull and northeast Vatnajökull. Both are intervals characterized by large explosive volcanism and tephra distribution in Iceland resulting in intensified local soil erosion. The most widespread increase in glacier advance, landscape instability, and soil erosion occurred shortly after 2 ka, likely due to a complex combination of increased impact from volcanic tephra deposition, cooling climate, and increased sea ice off the coast of Iceland. All lake records indicate a strong decline in temperature ∼1.5 ka, which culminated during the Little Ice Age (1250–1850 CE) when the glaciers reached their maximum Holocene dimensions.This work was supported primarily by the Icelandic Center for Research through grants awarded to Áslaug Geirsdóttir and Gifford H. Miller (no. 130775051 and Grant of Excellence no. 141573052) and several grants awarded to Áslaug Geirsdóttir from the UI Research Fund. We thank Sædís Ólafsdóttir, Celene Blair, Sydney Gunnarson, Sarah Crump, Thorsteinn Jónsson, and Sveinbjörn Steinthorsson, who all contributed to this work by taking part in field work, laboratory analyses, and/or discussion. Thorough and constructive reviews from two anonymous reviewers have substantially improved the paper.Peer Reviewe

Ventilation of the Arctic Ocean: Mean ages and inventories of anthropogenic CO2 and CFC-11

The Arctic Ocean constitutes a large body of water that is still relatively poorly surveyed because of logistical difficulties, although the importance of the Arctic Ocean for global circulation and climate is widely recognized. For instance, the concentration and inventory of anthropogenic CO2 (C ant) in the Arctic Ocean are not properly known despite its relatively large volume of well-ventilated waters. In this work, we have synthesized available transient tracer measurements (e.g., CFCs and SF6) made during more than two decades by the authors. The tracer data are used to estimate the ventilation of the Arctic Ocean, to infer deep-water pathways, and to estimate the Arctic Ocean inventory of C ant. For these calculations, we used the transit time distribution (TTD) concept that makes tracer measurements collected over several decades comparable with each other. The bottom water in the Arctic Ocean has CFC values close to the detection limit, with somewhat higher values in the Eurasian Basin. The ventilation time for the intermediate water column is shorter in the Eurasian Basin (∼200 years) than in the Canadian Basin (∼300 years). We calculate the Arctic Ocean C ant inventory range to be 2.5 to 3.3 Pg-C, normalized to 2005, i.e., ∼2% of the global ocean C ant inventory despite being composed of only ∼1% of the global ocean volume. In a similar fashion, we use the TTD field to calculate the Arctic Ocean inventory of CFC-11 to be 26.2 ± 2.6 × 106 moles for year 1994, which is ∼5% of the global ocean CFC-11 inventor

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties an vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts

BET Bromodomain Inhibition as a Therapeutic Strategy to Target c-Myc

SummaryMYC contributes to the pathogenesis of a majority of human cancers, yet strategies to modulate the function of the c-Myc oncoprotein do not exist. Toward this objective, we have targeted MYC transcription by interfering with chromatin-dependent signal transduction to RNA polymerase, specifically by inhibiting the acetyl-lysine recognition domains (bromodomains) of putative coactivator proteins implicated in transcriptional initiation and elongation. Using a selective small-molecule bromodomain inhibitor, JQ1, we identify BET bromodomain proteins as regulatory factors for c-Myc. BET inhibition by JQ1 downregulates MYC transcription, followed by genome-wide downregulation of Myc-dependent target genes. In experimental models of multiple myeloma, a Myc-dependent hematologic malignancy, JQ1 produces a potent antiproliferative effect associated with cell-cycle arrest and cellular senescence. Efficacy of JQ1 in three murine models of multiple myeloma establishes the therapeutic rationale for BET bromodomain inhibition in this disease and other malignancies characterized by pathologic activation of c-Myc.PaperFlic