Modelling and Experimental Study of Methane Catalytic Cracking as a Hydrogen Production Technology

Production of hydrogen is primarily achieved via catalytic steam reforming, partial oxidation,and auto-thermal reforming of natural gas. Although these processes are mature technologies, they are somewhat complex and CO is formed as a by-product, therefore requiring a separation process if a pure or hydrogen-rich stream is needed. As an alternative method, supported metal catalysts can be used to catalytically decompose hydrocarbons to produce hydrogen. The process is known as catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons. Methane, the hydrocarbon containing the highest percentage of hydrogen, can be used in such a process to produce a hydrogen-rich stream. The decomposition of methane occurs on the surface of the active metal to produce hydrogen and filamentous carbon. As a result, only hydrogen is produced as a gaseous product, which eliminates the need of further separation processes to separate CO2 or CO. Nickel is commonly used in research as a catalyst for methane cracking in the 500-700C temperature range. To conduct methane catalytic cracking in a continuous manner, regeneration of the deactivated catalyst is required and circulation of the catalysts between cracking and regeneration cycles must be achieved. Different reactor designs have been successfully used in cyclic operation, such as a set of parallel fixed-bed reactors alternating between cracking and regeneration, but catalyst agglomeration due to carbon deposition may lead to blockage of the reactor and elevated pressure drop through the fixed bed. Also poor heat transfer in the fixed bed may lead to elevated temperature during the regeneration step when carbon is burned in air, which may cause catalyst sintering. A fluidized bed reactor appears as a viable option for methane catalytic cracking, since it would permit cyclic operation by moving the catalyst between a cracker and a regenerator. In addition, there is the possibility of using fine catalyst particles, which improves catalyst effectiveness. The aims of this project were 1) to develop and characterize a suitable nickel-based catalyst and 2) to develop a model for thermal catalytic decomposition of methane in a fluidized bed

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The clinical relevance of oliguria in the critically ill patient : Analysis of a large observational database

Funding Information: Marc Leone reports receiving consulting fees from Amomed and Aguettant; lecture fees from MSD, Pfizer, Octapharma, 3 M, Aspen, Orion; travel support from LFB; and grant support from PHRC IR and his institution. JLV is the Editor-in-Chief of Critical Care. The other authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Urine output is widely used as one of the criteria for the diagnosis and staging of acute renal failure, but few studies have specifically assessed the role of oliguria as a marker of acute renal failure or outcomes in general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Using a large multinational database, we therefore evaluated the occurrence of oliguria (defined as a urine output 16 years) patients in the ICON audit who had a urine output measurement on the day of admission were included. To investigate the association between oliguria and mortality, we used a multilevel analysis. Results: Of the 8292 patients included, 2050 (24.7%) were oliguric during the first 24 h of admission. Patients with oliguria on admission who had at least one additional 24-h urine output recorded during their ICU stay (n = 1349) were divided into three groups: transient - oliguria resolved within 48 h after the admission day (n = 390 [28.9%]), prolonged - oliguria resolved > 48 h after the admission day (n = 141 [10.5%]), and permanent - oliguria persisting for the whole ICU stay or again present at the end of the ICU stay (n = 818 [60.6%]). ICU and hospital mortality rates were higher in patients with oliguria than in those without, except for patients with transient oliguria who had significantly lower mortality rates than non-oliguric patients. In multilevel analysis, the need for RRT was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (OR = 1.51 [95% CI 1.19-1.91], p = 0.001), but the presence of oliguria on admission was not (OR = 1.14 [95% CI 0.97-1.34], p = 0.103). Conclusions: Oliguria is common in ICU patients and may have a relatively benign nature if only transient. The duration of oliguria and need for RRT are associated with worse outcome.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% 47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% 32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% 27.9-42.8] and 33.3% 25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Correction to collaborators in acknowledgments in: Decision-making on withholding or withdrawing life support in the ICU: A worldwide perspective

The authors have reported to CHEST that the collaborators from the ICON Investigators were omitted from the Acknowledgments in “Decision-Making on Withholding or Withdrawing Life Support in the ICU: A Worldwide Perspective” (Chest. 2017;152(2):321-329). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2017.04.17

Higher Fluid Balance Increases the Risk of Death from Sepsis: Results from a Large International Audit∗

Objectives: Excessive fluid therapy in patients with sepsis may be associated with risks that outweigh any benefit. We investigated the possible influence of early fluid balance on outcome in a large international database of ICU patients with sepsis. Design: Observational cohort study. Setting: Seven hundred and thirty ICUs in 84 countries. Patients: All adult patients admitted between May 8 and May 18, 2012, except admissions for routine postoperative surveillance. For this analysis, we included only the 1,808 patients with an admission diagnosis of sepsis. Patients were stratified according to quartiles of cumulative fluid balance 24 hours and 3 days after ICU admission. Measurements and Main Results: ICU and hospital mortality rates were 27.6% and 37.3%, respectively. The cumulative fluid balance increased from 1,217 mL (-90 to 2,783 mL) in the first 24 hours after ICU admission to 1,794 mL (-951 to 5,108 mL) on day 3 and decreased thereafter. The cumulative fluid intake was similar in survivors and nonsurvivors, but fluid balance was less positive in survivors because of higher fluid output in these patients. Fluid balances became negative after the third ICU day in survivors but remained positive in nonsurvivors. After adjustment for possible confounders in multivariable analysis, the 24-hour cumulative fluid balance was not associated with an increased hazard of 28-day in-hospital death. However, there was a stepwise increase in the hazard of death with higher quartiles of 3-day cumulative fluid balance in the whole population and after stratification according to the presence of septic shock. Conclusions: In this large cohort of patients with sepsis, higher cumulative fluid balance at day 3 but not in the first 24 hours after ICU admission was independently associated with an increase in the hazard of death

Assessment of the worldwide burden of critical illness: The Intensive Care Over Nations (ICON) audit

Background Global epidemiological data regarding outcomes for patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are scarce, but are important in understanding the worldwide burden of critical illness. We, therefore, did an international audit of ICU patients worldwide and assessed variations between hospitals and countries in terms of ICU mortality.Methods 730 participating centres in 84 countries prospectively collected data on all adult (>16 years) patients admitted to their ICU between May 8 and May 18, 2012, except those admitted for fewer than 24 h for routine postoperative monitoring. Participation was voluntary. Data were collected daily for a maximum of 28 days in the ICU and patients were followed up for outcome data until death or hospital discharge. In-hospital death was analysed using multilevel logistic regression with three levels: patient, hospital, and country.Findings 10 069 patients were included from ICUs in Europe (5445 patients; 54.1%), Asia (1928; 19.2%), the Americas (1723; 17.1%), Oceania (439; 4.4%), the Middle East (393; 3.9%), and Africa (141; 1.4%). Overall, 2973 patients (29.5%) had sepsis on admission or during the ICU stay. ICU mortality rates were 16.2% (95% CI 15.5-16.9) across the whole population and 25.8% (24.2-27.4) in patients with sepsis. Hospital mortality rates were 22.4% (21.6-23.2) in the whole population and 35.3% (33.5-37.1) in patients with sepsis. Using a multilevel analysis, the unconditional model suggested significant between-country variations (var=0.19, p=0.002) and between-hospital variations (var=0.43, p<0.0001) in the individual risk of in-hospital death. There was a stepwise increase in the adjusted risk of in-hospital death according to decrease in global national income.Interpretation This large database highlights that sepsis remains a major health problem worldwide, associated with high mortality rates in all countries. Our findings also show a significant association between the risk of death and the global national income and suggest that ICU organisation has an important effect on risk of death

age: Observational data from the ICON audit

Purpose: To investigate age-related differences in outcomes of critically ill patients with sepsis around the world.Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of data from the prospective ICON audit, in which all adult ( >16 years ) patients admitted to participating ICUs between May 8 and 18, 2012, were included, except admissions for routine postoperative observation. For this sub-analysis, the 10,012 patients with completed age data were included. They were divided into five age groups - 80 years. Sepsis was defined as infection plus at least one organ failure.Results: A total of 2963 patients had sepsis, with similar proportions across the age groups (80 = 30.9%). Hospital mortality increased with age and in patients >80 years was almost twice that of patients 70 years was independently associated with increased risk of dying.Conclusions: The odds for death in ICU patients with sepsis increased with age with the maximal rate of increase occurring between the ages of 71 and 77 years. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.C1 [Kotfis, Katarzyna] Pomeranian Med Univ, Dept Anaesthesiol Intens Therapy & Acute Intoxica, Szczecin, Poland.[Wittebole, Xavier] UCL, Clin Univ St Luc, Dept Crit Care, Brussels, Belgium.[Jaschinski, Ulrich] Klinikum Augsburg, Klin Anasthesiol & Operat Intens Med, Augsburg, Germany.[Sole-Violan, Jordi] Hosp Univ Gran Canaria Dr Negrin, Dept Intens Care, Las Palmas Gran Canaria, Spain.[Kashyap, Rahul] Mayo Clin, Dept Anesthesia Ei Perioperat Med, Rochester, MN USA.[Leone, Marc] Aix Marseille Univ, Hop Nord, AP HM, Serv Anesthesie & Reanimat, Marseille, France.[Nanchal, Rahul] Med Coll Wisconsin, Dept Med, Milwaukee, WI 53226 USA.[Fontes, Luis E.] Hosp Alcides Carneiro, Petropolis Med Sch, Dept Intens Care & Evidence Based Med, Petropolis, Brazil.[Sakr, Yasser] Uniklinikum Jena, Dept Anesthesiol & Intens Care, Jena, Germany.[Vincent, Jean-Louis] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Erasme Univ Hosp, Dept Intens Care, Route Lenn 808, B-1070 Brussels, Belgium.[Tomas, E.] Clin Sagrada Esperanca, Luanda, Angola.[Bibonge, E. Amisi] Clin Univ Kinshasa, Kinshasa, DEM REP CONGO.[Charra, B.] Chu Ibn Rochd Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco.[Faroudy, M.] Ibn Sina Hosp, Rabat, Morocco.[Doedens, L.] Chris Hani Baragwanath Acad Hosp, Soweto, South Africa.[Farina, Z.] Grays Hosp, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.[Adler, D.] Sandton Medi Clin, Sandton, South Africa.[Balkema, C.] Tygerberg Hosp, Cape Town, South Africa.[Kok, A.] Union Hosp Alberton, Alberton, South Africa.[Alaya, S.] Bizerte Hosp, Bizerte, Tunisia.[Gharsallah, H.] Mil Hosp Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.[Muzha, D.] Natl Trauma Ctr & Mil Hosp, Tirana, Albania.[Temelkov, A.] Alexandrovska Univ Hosp, Sofia, Bulgaria.[Georgiev, G.] Emergency Univ Hosp Pirogov, Sofia, Bulgaria.[Simeonov, G.] Tokuda Hosp Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.[Tsaryanski, G.] Uh St Ekaterina Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria.[Georgiev, S.] Univ Hosp Obstet & Gynaecol, Sofia, Bulgaria.[Seliman, A.] Univ Hosp Sveta Marina Varna, Varna, Bulgaria.[Vrankovic, S.] Gen Hosp Siben, Shibenik, Croatia.[Vucicevic, Z.] Univ Hosp Ctr Sestre Milosrdnice, Zagreb, Croatia.[Gornik, I] Univ Hosp Ctr Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.[Barsic, B.] Univ Hosp Infect Dis, Zagreb, Croatia.[Husedzinovic, I] Univ Hosp Dubrava, Zagreb, Croatia.[Pavlik, P.] Ctr Cardiovasc & Transplant Surg, Prague, Czech Republic.[Manak, J.] Charles Univ Hosp, Prague, Czech Republic.[Kieslichova, E.] IKEM, Prague, Czech Republic.[Turek, R.] KNTB Zlin AS, Prague, Czech Republic.[Fischer, M.] Krajska Nemocnice Liberec, Prague, Czech Republic.[Valkova, R.] Masarykova Nemocnice V Usti Labem, Labem, Czech Republic.[Dadak, L.] St Annes Univ Hosp Brno, Brno, Czech Republic.[Dostal, P.] Univ Hosp Haradec Kralove, Haradec Kralove, Czech Republic.[Malaska, J.] Univ Hosp Brno, Brno, Czech Republic.[Hajek, R.] Univ Hosp Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic.[Zidkova, A.] Univ Hosp Plzen, Plzen, Czech Republic.[Lavicka, P.] Charles Univ Hosp Plzen, Plzen, Czech Republic.[Starkopf, J.] Tartu Univ Hosp, Tartu, Estonia.[Kheladze, Z.] Crit Care Med Inst, Gainesville, Georgia.[Chkhaidze, M.] Jo Ann Med Ctr, Tbilisi, Georgia.[Kaloiani, V] Kipshidze Cent Univ Hosp, Tbilisi, Georgia.[Medve, L.] Dr Kenessey Albert Hosp, Balassagyarmat, Hungary.[Sarkany, A.] Fejer Cty St George Teaching Hosp, Szekesfehervar, Hungary.[Kremer, I] Flor Ferenc Cty Hosp, Budapest, Hungary.[Marjanek, Z.] Javorszky Odon Hosp, Vac, Hungary.[Tamasi, P.] Peterfy Hosp Budapest, Budapest, Hungary.[Krupnova, I] Infectol Ctr Latvia, Riga, Latvia.[Vanags, I] Paul Stradins Clin Univ Hosp, Riga, Latvia.[Liguts, V] Riga East Clin Univ Hosp, Riga, Latvia.[Pilvinis, V] Hosp Lithuanian Univ Hlth Sci Kauno Klinikos, Kaunas, Lithuania.[Vosylius, S.] Vilnius Univ Hosp, Vilnius, Lithuania.[Kekstas, G.] HSICU, Vilnius Univ Hosp Santariskiu Clin, Vilnius, Lithuania.[Balciunas, M.] CICU, Vilnius Univ Hosp Santariskiu Clin, Vilnius, Lithuania.[Kolbusz, A.] Csk Mswia, Warsaw, Poland.[Kubler, A.] Med Univ, Wroclaw, Poland.[Mielczarek, B.] Med Univ Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland.[Mikaszewska-Sokolewicz, M.] Med Univ Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.[Kotfis, K.] Pomeranian Med Univ, Szczecin, Poland.[Tamowicz, B.] Reg Hosp Poznan, Poznan, Poland.[Sulkowski, W.] Szpital Powiatowy W Ostrowi Mazowieckiej, Ostrow Mazowiecka, Poland.[Smuszkiewicz, P.] Univ Hosp, Poznan, Poland.[Pihowicz, A.] Wojewodzki Szpital Zakazny, Torun, Poland.[Trejnowska, E.] Wojewodzkie Ctr Med, Warsaw, Poland.[Hagau, N.] Emergency Cty Hosp Cluj, Cluj Napoca, Romania.[Filipescu, D.] Emergency Inst Cardiovasc Dis, Bucharest, Romania.[Droc, G.] Fundeni Clin Inst, Bucharest, Romania.[Lupu, M.] Galati Hosp, Bucharest, Romania.[Nica, A.] Lnbi Prof Dr Matei Bals, Bucharest, Romania.[Stoica, R.] Inst Pulmonol Marius Nasta, Bucharest, Romania.[Tomescu, D.] Inst Clin Fundeni, Bucharest, Romania.[Constantinescu, D.] Sfantul Pantelimon Hosp, Bucharest, Romania.[Zbaganu, G. Valcoreanu] Spitalul Cf 2 Bucuresti, Bucharest, Romania.[Slavcovici, A.] Iuliu Hatieganu Univ Med & Pharm, Teaching Hosp Infect Dis, Cluj Napoca, Romania.[Bagin, V] City Clin Hosp 40, St Petersburg, Russia.[Belsky, D.] City Hosp 40, St Petersburg, Russia.[Palyutin, S.] Clin Hosp NVNV Solovyev, Yaroslavl, Russia.[Shlyapnikov, S.] Emergency Res Inst NA Djanelidze, St Petersburg, Russia.[Bikkulova, D.] Fed Res Ctr Paediat Haematol Oncol & Immunol, Moscow, Russia.[Gritsan, A.] Krasnoyarsk State Med Univ, Krasnoyarsk Reg Hosp, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.[Natalia, G.] Med Assoc Novaya Bolnitsa, Ekaterinburg, Russia.[Makarenko, E.] Mil Med Acad, Ekaterinburg, Russia.[Kokhno, V] Novosibirsk Med Univ, Novosibirsk, Russia.[Tolkach, A.] Omsk Reg Clin Hosp, Omsk, Russia.[Kokarev, E.] Railway Hosp Khabarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russia.[Belotserkovskiy, B.] St Alexy Hosp, St Louis, France.[Zolotukhin, K.] State Dist Hosp, Moscow, Russia.[Kulabukhov, V] Vishnevsky Inst Surg, Moscow, Russia.[Soskic, L.] Clin Ctr Serbia, Clin Cardiac Surg, Belgrade, Serbia.[Palibrk, I] Clin Ctr Serbia, Clin Digest Surg, Belgrade, Serbia.[Jankovic, R.; Jovanovic, B.] Clin Ctr Nis, Clin Vasc Surg, Nish, Serbia.[Pandurovic, M.] Clin Ctr Serbia, Emergency Ctr, Belgrade, Serbia.[Bumbasirevic, V] Clin Ctr Belgrade, Emergency Ctr, Belgrade, Serbia.[Uljarevic, B.] Gen Univ Hosp, Belgrade, Serbia.[Surbatovic, M.] Mil Med Acad, Belgrade, Serbia.[Ladjevic, N.] Urol Hosp, Belgrade, Serbia.[Slobodianiuk, G.] Dist Hosp, Bratislava, Slovakia.[Sobona, V] Fac Hosp, Bratislava, Slovakia.[Cikova, A.] Univ Hosp Bratislava, Hosp Ruzinov ICU, Bratislava, Slovakia.[Gebhardtova, A.] Univ Hosp Ruzinov Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia.[Jun, C.] Qingdao Univ, Tertiary Hosp, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Yunbo, S.] Qingdao Univ, Affiliated Hosp, Med Coll, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Dong, U.] Beijing Canc Hosp, Beijing Inst Canc Res, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Feng, S.] Beijing Chaoyang Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Duan, M.] Beijing Friendship Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Xu, Y.] Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tongren Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Xue, X.] Beijing Univ Peoples Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Gao, T.] Beijing Luhe Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Xing, X.] Chinese Acad Med Sci, Canc Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Zhao, X.] China Acad Chinese Med Sci, Guang An Men Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Li, C.] Peoples Hosp, Chuxiong, Yunnan, Peoples R China.[Gengxihua, G.] Donge Cty Peoples Hosp Shandong Prov, Liaocheng, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Tan, H.] Chinese Acad Med Sci, Fu Wai Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Xu, J.] Fujian Prov Hosp, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China.[Jiang, L.] Capital Med Univ, Fuxing Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Tiehe, Q.] Guangdong Gen Hosp, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China.[Bingyu, Q.] Henan Prov Peoples Hosp, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China.[Shi, Q.] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Coll Med, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.[Lv, Z.] Kunming Third Peoples Hosp, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China.[Zhang, L.] Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 2, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China.[Jingtao, L.] 309th Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Zhen, Z.] China Med Univ, Hosp 1, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Wang, Z.] Peking Univ, Shougang Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Wang, T.] Peking Univ, Hosp 3, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Yuhong, L.] Pla Navy Gen Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China.[Zhai, Q.] Shandong Univ, Qilu Hosp, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Chen, Y.] Jiaotong Univ, Affiliated Med Sch, Ruijin Hosp, Shanghai, Peoples R China.[Wang, C.] Shandong Prov Hosp, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Jiang, W.] Shanghai 10th Peoples Hosp, Shanghai, Peoples R China.[Ruilan, W.] Shanghai First Peoples Hosp, Shanghai, Peoples R China.[Chen, Y.; Xiaobo, H.] Sichuan Prov Peoples Hosp, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China.[Ge, H.] Sir Run Run Shaw Hosp, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China.[Yan, T.] Affiliated Guiyang Med Coll, Guiyang, Guizhou, Peoples R China.[Yuhui, C.] Fudan Univ, Peoples Hosp Shanghai 5, Shanghai, Peoples R China.[Zhang, J.] Dalian Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dalian, Peoples R China.[Jian-Hong, F.] Suzhou Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Suzhou, Peoples R China.[Zhu, H.] Xinjiang Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Urumqi, Peoples R China.[Huo, F.; Wang, Y.] Jilin Univ, Hosp 1, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China.[Li, C.] First Peoples Hosp Kunming, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China.[Zhuang, M.] Gen Hosp Shenyang Mil Reg, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China.[Ma, Z.] Peoples Hosp Cangzhou, Cangzhou, Peoples R China.[Sun, J.] Jilin Univ, Hosp 2, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China.[Liuqingyue, L.] Second Peoples Hosp Liaocheng City Shandong Prov, Liaocheng, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Yang, M.] Third Xiangya Hosp, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China.[Meng, J.] Tongde Hosp Zhejiang Prov, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China.[Ma, S.] Tongji Univ, Shanghai East Hosp, Shanghai, Peoples R China.[Kang, Y.] West China Hosp, Scu, Peoples R China.[Yu, L.] Wuhan Ctr Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China.[Peng, Q.] Xiangya Hosp, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China.[Wei, Y.] Yantai Yuhuangding Hosp, Yantai, Peoples R China.[Zhang, W.] Yantaishan Hosp, Yantai, Shandong, Peoples R China.[Sun, R.] Zhejiang Prov Peoples Hosp, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China.[Yeung, A.] Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hosp, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.[Wan, W.] Princess Margaret Hosp, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.[Sin, K.] Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.[Lee, K.] United Christian Hosp Hong Kong SAR, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.[Wijanti, M.] Anestesi, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.[Widodo, U.] Pku Muhammadiyah Bantu, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.[Samsirun, H.] Rd Mattaher Hosp Jambi, Jambi City, Indonesia.[Sugiman, T.] Rumah Sakit Pantai Lndah Kapuk, North Jakarta, Indonesia.[Wisudarti, C.] Sardjito Hosp, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.[Maskoen, T.] Sch Med Unpad, Hasan Sadikin Hosp, Bandung, Indonesia.[Hata, N.] Nippon Med Sch, Chiba Hokusoh Hosp, Inzai, Japan.[Kobe, Y.] Chiba Univ Hosp, Chiba, Japan.[Nishida, O.] Fujita Hlth Univ, Sch Med, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan.[Miyazaki, D.] Japanese Red Cross Maebashi Hosp, Maebashi, Gumma, Japan.[Nunomiya, S.] Jichi Med Univ Hosp, Shimotsuke, Japan.[Uchino, S.] Jikei Univ, Sch Med, Tokyo, Japan.[Kitamura, N.] Kimitsu Chuo Hosp, Kisarazu, Japan.[Yamashita, K.] Kochi Med Sch, Nankoku, Kochi, Japan.[Hashimoto, S.] Kyoto Prefectural Univ Med, Kyoto, Japan.[Fukushima, H.] Nara Med Univ Hosp, Kashihara, Nara, Japan.[Adib, N. Nik] Hosp Sultanah Nur Zahirah, Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.[Tai, L.] Kuala Lumpur Hosp, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.[Tony, B.] Queen Elizabeth Hosp 2, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.[Bigornia, R.] Cebu Velez Gen Hosp, Cebu, Philippines.[Bigornia, R.] Perpetual Succour Hosp, Cebu, Philippines.[Palo, J.] Med City, Pasig, Philippines.[Chatterjee, S.] Alexandra Hosp, Singapore, Singapore.[Tan, B.] Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Singapore, Singapore.[Kong, A.] Singapore Gen Hosp, Singapore, Singapore.[Goh, S.] Tan Tock Seng Hosp, Singapore, Singapore.[Lee, C.] Natl Taiwan Univ Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan.[Pothirat, C.] Chiaingmai Univ, Maharaj Nakorn Chiangmai Hosp, Chiang Mai, Thailand.[Khwannimit, B.] Prince Songkla Univ, Hat Yai, Thailand.[Theerawit, P.] Ramathibodi Hosp, Bangkok, Thailand.[Pornsuriyasak, P.] Ramathibodi Hosp, Somdech Phra Debaratana Med Ctr, Bangkok, Thailand.[Piriyapatsom, A.] Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Bangkok, Thailand.[Mukhtar, A.] Cairo Univ, Giza, Egypt.[Dsicu] Demerdash Surg Intens Care Unit, Cairo, Egypt.[Hamdy, A. Nabil] Ain Shams Fac Med, Cairo, Egypt.[Hosny, H.] Zaitoun Specialized Hosp, Cairo, Egypt.[Ashraf, A.] Gums, Tehran, Iran.[Mokhtari, M.] Sbums, Imam Hossein Hosp, Tehran, Iran.[Nowruzinia, S.] Imamreza Hosp, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran.[Lotfi, A.] Laleh Hosp, Tehran, Iran.[Zand, F.] Shiraz Anesthesiol & Crit Care Res Ctr, Shiraz, Iran.[Nikandish, R.] Shiraz Univ Med Sci, Shiraz, Iran.[Moghaddam, O. Moradi] Tehran Med Sci Univ, Tehran, Iran.[Cohen, J.] Rabin Med Ctr, Petah Tiqwa, Israel.[Sold, O.] Sourasky Tel Aviv Med Ctr, Tel Aviv, Israel.[Sfeir, T.] Ctr Hosp Nord, Ettelbruck, Luxembourg.[Hasan, A.] Sohar Hosp, Sohar, Oman.[Abugaber, D.] Specialized Arab Hosp, Nablus, Palestine.[Ahmad, H.] Almana Gen Hosp, Khobar, Saudi Arabia.[Tantawy, T.] KFSHRC, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.[Baharoom, S.] King Abdulaziz Med City Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.[Algethamy, H.] King Abdulaziz Univ, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.[Amr, A.] King Saud Med City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.[Almekhlafi, G.] Riyadh Mil Hosp, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.[Coskun, R.] Erciyes Univ, Med Fac, Kayseri, Turkey.[Sungur, M.] Erciyes Univ, Med Sch, Kayseri, Turkey.[Cosar, A.] Gulhane Mil Med Acad, Ankara, Turkey.[Gucyetmez, B.] Int Hosp, Istanbul, Turkey.[Demirkiran, O.] Istanbul Univ, Cerrahpasa Med Sch Hosp, Istanbul, Turkey.[Senturk, E.] Istanbul Univ, Istanbul Med Fac, Istanbul, Turkey.[Ulusoy, H.] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Med Fac, Trabzon, Turkey.[Atalan, H.] Mem Atasehir Hosp, Istanbul, Turkey.[Serin, S.] Pamukkale Univ, Denizli, Turkey.[Kati, I] Yuzuncu Yil Univ, Med Fac, Van, Turkey.[Alnassrawi, Z.] Dubai Hosp, Dubai, U Arab Emirates.[Almemari, A.] Mafraq Hosp, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates.[Krishnareddy, K.] Sheikh Khalifa Med City, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates.[Kashef, S.] Tawam Hosp, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates.[Alsabbah, A.] City Hosp, Dubai, U Arab Emirates.[Poirier, G.] Hop Charles Lemoyne, Longueuil, PQ, Canada.[Marshall, J.] St Michaels Hosp, Toronto, ON, Canada.[Herridge, M.] Toronto Gen Hosp, Toronto, ON, Canada.[Herridge, M.] Toronto Western Hosp, Toronto, ON, Canada.[Fernandez-Medero, R.] San Juan Hosp, San Juan, PR USA.[Fulda, G.] Christiana Care Hlth Syst, Newark, DE USA.[Banschbach, S.] Cincinnati Childrens Hosp Med Ctr, Cincinnati, OH 45229 USA.[Quintero, J.] El Camino Hosp, Mountain View, CA USA.[Schroeder, E.] George Washington Hosp, Washington, DC USA.[Sicoutris, C.] Hosp Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA.[Gueret, R.] John H Stroger Hosp Cook Cty, Chicago, IL USA.[Kashyap, R.] Mayo Clin, CCM, Rochester, MN USA.[Bauer, P.] Mayo Clin, PCC, Rochester, MN USA.[Nanchal, R.] Med Coll Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI 53226 USA.[Wunderink, R.] Northwestern Mem Hosp, Chicago, IL 60611 USA.[Jimenez, E.] Orlando Reg Med Ctr Inc, Orlando, FL USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, Washington, DC 20010 USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, 2H, Washington, DC USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, 2G, Washington, DC USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, 3H, Washington, DC USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, 3G, Washington, DC USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, 4H, Washington, DC USA.[Ryan, A.] Washington Hosp Ctr, CVRR, Washington, DC USA.[Prince, D.] Armadale Hlth Serv, Mount Nasura, WA, Australia.[Edington, J.] Bendigo Hosp, Bendigo, Vic, Australia.[Van Haren, F.] Canberra Hosp, Canberra, ACT, Australia.[Bersten, A.] Flinders Med Ctr, Bedford Pk, SA, Australia.[Hawkins, D. J.] Joondalup Hlth Campus, Joondalup, WA, Australia.[Kilminster, M.] Lismore Base Hosp, Lismore, NSW, Australia.[Sturgess, D.] Mater Adult Hosp, South Brisbane, Qld, Australia.[Ziegenfuss, M.] Prince Charles Hosp, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.[O'Connor, S.] Royal Adelaide Hosp, Adelaide, SA, Australia.[Lipman, J.] Royal Brisbane & Womens Hosp, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.[Campbell, L.] Royal Darwin Hosp, Tiwi, NT, Australia.[Mcallister, R.] Royal Hobart Hosp, Hobart, Tas, Australia.[Roberts, B.] Sir Charles Gairdner Hosp, Nedlands, WA, Australia.[Williams, P.] Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Woodville, SA, Australia.[Parke, R.] Auckland Dist Hlth Board, Auckland, New Zealand.[Seigne, P.] Christchurch Hosp, Christchurch, New Zealand.[Freebairn, R.] Hawkes Bay Hosp, Hastings, New Zealand.[Nistor, D.] Palmerston North Hosp, Midcent Hlth, Palmerston North, New Zealand.[Oxley, C.] Middlemore Hosp, Auckland, New Zealand.[Young, P.] Wellington Hosp, Wellington, New Zealand.[Valentini, R.] Cemic, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Wainsztein, N.] Fleni, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Comignani, P.] Hosp Aleman, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Casaretto, M.] Hosp Cent San Isidro, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Sutton, G.] Hosp Fernandez, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Villegas, P.] Hosp Francisco Lopez Lima Area Programa Gen Roca, Gen Roca, Argentina.[Galletti, C.] Sanatorio Allende, Cordoba, Argentina.[Neira, J.] Sanatorio Trinidad Palermo, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina.[Rovira, D.] Sanatorio Julio Corzo Rosario, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina.[Hidalgo, J.] Karl Heusner Mem Hosp, Belize City, Belize.[Hidalgo, J.] Belize Healthcare Partner, Belize City, Belize.[Sandi, F.] Hosp Obrero 1, La Paz, Bolivia.[Caser, E.] Cias Unimed Vitoria, Vitoria, ES, Brazil.[Thompson, M.] Evangelical Hosp Cachoeiro De Itapemirim, Cachoeiro De Itapemirim, Brazil.[D'agostino Dias, M.] Hosp 9 Julho, Sao Paulo, Brazil.[Fontes, L.] Hosp Alcides Carneiro, Petropolis, Brazil.[Lunardi, M.] Hosp Clin Luzia De Pinho Melo, Mogi Das Cruzes, Brazil.[Youssef, N.] Hosp Nacoes Curitiba, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil.[Lobo, S.] Hosp Base Famerp, Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, Brazil.[Silva, R.] Hosp Clin Niteroi, Niteroi, RJ, Brazil.[Sales Jr, J.] Hosp Clin Padre Miguel, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.[Madeira Campos Melo, L.] Hosp Terapia Intens, Sao Paulo, Brazil.[Oliveira, M.] Hosp Trabalhador, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil.[Fonte, M.] Hosp Esperanza, Olinda, PE, Brazil.[Grion, C.] Hosp Evangel Londrina, Londrina, Brazil.[Feijo, C.] Hosp Geral Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil.[Rezende, V] Hosp Geral Roraima, Boa Vista, Brazil.[Assuncao, M.] Hosp Israelita Albert Einstein, Sao Paulo, Brazil.[Neves, A.] Hosp Mater Dei, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.[Gusman, P.; Dalcomune, D.] Hosp Meridional, Cariacica, ES, Brazil.[Teixeira, C.] Hosp Moinhos Vento, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.[Kaefer, K.] Hosp Municipal Ruth Cardoso, Balneario, Brazil.[Maia, I] Hosp Nereu Ramos, Florianopolis, SC, Brazil.[Souza Dantas, V] Hosp Pasteur, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.[Costa Filho, R.] Hosp Pro Cardiaco, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.[Amorim, F.] Hosp Reg Samambaia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil.[Assef, M.] Hosp Reg Hans Dieter Schmidt, Joinville, Brazil.[Schiavetto, P.] Hosp Santa Casa Campo Mourao, Campo Mourao, PR, Brazil.[Houly, J.] Hosp Santa Paula, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.[Houly, J.] Hosp Santapaula, Sao Paulo, Brazil.[Bianchi, F.] Hosp Sao Jose Avai, Itaperuna, RJ, Brazil.[Dias, F.] Hosp Sao Lucas Pucrs, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.[Avila, C.] Hosp Sao Vicente Paula, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.[Gomez, J.] Hosp Sao Vicente Paulo, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.[Rego, L.] Hosp Saude Mulher, Belem, Para, Brazil.[Castro, P.] Hosp Tacchini, Bento Goncalves, RS, Brazil.[Passos, J.] Hosp Unimed Costa Do Sol Macae Rj, Macae, RJ, Brazil.[Mendes, C.] Hosp Univ Ufpb Joao Pessoa, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil.[Grion, C.] Hosp Univ Londrina, Londrina, Brazil.[Colozza Mecatti, G.] Hosp Univ Sao Francisco, Braganca Paulista, SP, Brazil.[Ferrreira, M.] Santa Casa Caridade Diamantina, Diamantina, MG, Brazil.[Irineu, V] Santa Casa Misericordia Tatui, Tatui, Brazil.[Guerreiro, M.] Sao Francisco de Paula Hosp, Sao Francisco De Paula, RS, Brazil.[Ugarte, S.] Clin Indisa, Providencia, Chile.[Tomicic, V] Clin Las Lilas, Providencia, Chile.[Godoy, C.] Hosp Carlos Van Buren, Valparaiso, Chile.[Samaniego, W.] Hosp Trabajador Santiago, Santiago, Chile.[Escamilla, I] Hosp El Pino, San Bernardo, Chile.[Escamilla, I] Hosp Mutual De Seguridad, Santiago, Chile.[Castro Castro, L.] Ctr Med Imbanaco, Valle Del Cauca, Colombia.[Libreros Duque, G.] Clin Colombia Cali, Cali, Colombia.[Diaz-Guio, D.] Clin Del Cafe, Armenia, Colombia.[Benitez, F.] Clin La Estancia SA, Popayan, Colombia.[Guerra Urrego, A.] Clin Medellin, Medellin, Colombia.[Buitrago, R.] Fdn Clin Shaio, Bogota, Colombia.[Ortiz, G.] Hosp Santa Clara, Bogota, Colomb

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic