Mycobacterial antigen MPT64 specific polyclonal antibody production and validation for an immunohistochemistry based diagnostic test for extrapulmonary tuberculosis

Mycobacterial antigen MPT64 specific polyclonal antibody production and validation for an immunohistochemistry based diagnostic test for extrapulmonary tuberculosis Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) constitute 20-40% of all TB. Diagnosis of EPTB poses challenges as the routine diagnostic tests are less sensitive due to the paucibacillary nature of the disease. Therefore, there is a need to develop better diagnostic tests for EPTB. An antigen detection test based on the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex specific protein MPT64 by immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been developed and validated in the routine diagnostic settings (1-8). These studies show that the MPT64 antigen detection test is applicable to various forms of EPTB, including HIV positive and HIV negative cases, on biopsies, fine-needle aspirates, and cytology smears with sensitivity 70-100% and specificity 65-100% which is significantly better than the routine tests. This test is robust, feasible to implement in high TB endemic settings (2), and can help in the timely and accurate diagnosis of EPTB, preventing empirical over-treatment, morbidity, and mortality. These findings warrant the large-scale implementation of the test. However, all these studies have been carried out by the limited amount of in-house rabbit polyclonal antibody (pAb). The reproduction of an anti-MPT64 antibody with applicability on IHC is a prerequisite for large-scale use of the test. Our research group has reproduced a monoclonal anti-MPT64 antibody which gives good reactivity with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the recombinant antigen, but it does not give good reactivity on formalin-fixed tissues. This is probably due to variable epitopes in vivo and changes in the antigen during the fixation process. PAbs, by virtue of their polyclonality and heterogeneity, can bind to multiple and different antigenic epitopes, and could be a suitable candidate for IHC. Aims: The aim of this study was to reproduce the anti-MPT64 pAb, create a single batch in a large volume, validate the new pAb on formalin-fixed clinical samples, and compare the validity with Xpert MTB/RIF assay. Material and Methods: Recombinant MPT64 protein was prepared by using a mammalian cell expression system. Rabbits were used as host animals for the generation of pAbs. An immunization strategy was designed by a pre-immunization selection of 38/180 rabbits with minimal reactivity of their sera on the formalin-fixed tissues by IHC. The 38 selected rabbits were immunized by recombinant antigen and Titer Max Gold adjuvant by using a shorter and longer immunization protocol generating 50 ml and 90 ml of sera, respectively from each rabbit. Individual bleeds from each rabbit were tested with ELISA and IHC. Sera with good reactivity by IHC on the formalin-fixed TB positive control tissues and minimal reactivity on the non-TB tissues were further tested by making various cocktails to generate a single batch in a large volume. Various background reducing strategies were applied to achieve good specificity. These batches were tested on human clinical samples. The selected batch was validated on bacteriology confirmed (culture and/or Xpert MTB/RIF positive) EPTB (24 lymphadenitis and 21 pleuritis) and 41 non-TB biopsies by IHC. The sensitivity of the new pAb was compared with the microscopy for acid-fast bacilli and Xpert MTB/RIF assay using culture as a reference standard. Results: All bleeds had very good reactivity with ELISA, with titer mostly around 1:200.000. With IHC, reactivity with the individual bleeds was variable, some sera gave very good sensitivity and specificity, while others were less sensitive and/or less specific due to the non-specific background staining. Among the various background reducing strategies, overnight incubation of tissue sections with 3% bovine serum albumin and 10% normal goat serum followed by further blocking with serum-free protein block gave good results with a significant reduction of non-specific staining. Among five cocktails made from sera of 25 rabbits, one cocktail consisting of sera from 10 rabbits gave the best results. The sensitivity of this cocktail was similar to the previous anti-MPT64 pAb, though the staining intensity was generally less, the signals were clearly visible. Using bacteriological confirmation as a reference standard, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of IHC with this batch of new pAb in lymphadenitis were 88%, 80%, 72%, 92%, and 83%, respectively, and in pleuritis were 86%, 80%, 69%, 92%, and 82%, respectively. Using culture as a reference standard, the performance of the new anti-MPT64 pAb was better than AFB microscopy in both lymphadenitis and pleuritis (sensitivity 88% vs. 13%, and 89% vs. 6%), while it was better than Xpert MTB/RIF in the TB pleuritis (sensitivity 89% vs. 17%) and similar to it in lymphadenitis (sensitivity 88% vs. 88%). Conclusion: The study shows that it is possible to reproduce pAbs that can detect the MPT64 antigen in the formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue sections by IHC. The sensitivity of the MPT64 antigen detection test by using these new pAbs is better than the AFB microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF. This opens up the possibility of the large-scale use of this test and its inclusion in the routine diagnostics of EPTB.MAMD-GLOBINTH395

Compressive and Flexural Strength of High-Volume Fly Ash Mortars Aged with Air-entraining Admixtures

This paper presents the findings of an investigation into the compressive and flexural strength of various cement mortars containing very high levels of Class F fly ash (HVFA). A total of twelve cement mortar mixtures with constant water/powder ratios, cement, sand, and Air-Entraining Admixtures (AEA) were subjected to 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70% partial replacement of cement content with Fly Ash (HVFA) class F. The results of the tests show that the compressive and flexural strength decreased slowly as the fly ash content increased to up to 40%, but the strength values began to decrease dramatically with the addition of a higher amount of fly ash. According to the results, the best percentage of cement replacement with fly ash in mortar is 40%. It has 24% less compressive strength and 13% less flexural strength than 20% FA mortar. In general, the air-entraining admixture has no negative effect on the properties of the cement mortars. The measured properties of the hardened mortar are very satisfying

Prevalence and potential determinants of covid-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance in qatar: Results from a nationally representative survey of qatari nationals and migrants between december 2020 and january 2021

Global COVID-19 pandemic containment necessitates understanding the risk of hesitance or resistance to vaccine uptake in different populations. The Middle East and North Africa currently lack vital representative vaccine hesitancy data. We conducted the first representative national phone survey among the adult population of Qatar, between December 2020 and January 2021, to estimate the prevalence and identify potential determinants of vaccine willingness: acceptance (strongly agree), resistance (strongly disagree), and hesitance (somewhat agree, neutral, somewhat disagree). Bivariate and multinomial logistic regression models estimated associations between willingness groups and fifteen variables. In the total sample, 42.7% (95% CI: 39.5-46.1) were accepting, 45.2% (95% CI: 41.9-48.4) hesitant, and 12.1% (95% CI: 10.1-14.4) resistant. Vaccine resistant compared with hesistant and accepting groups reported no endorsement source will increase vaccine confidence (58.9% vs. 5.6% vs. 0.2%, respectively). Female gender, Arab ethnicity, migrant status/type, and vaccine side-effects concerns were associated with hesitancy and resistance. COVID-19 related bereavement, infection, and quarantine status were not significantly associated with any willingness group. Absence of or lack of concern about contracting the virus was solely associated with resistance. COVID-19 vaccine resistance, hesitance, and side-effects concerns are high in Qatar's population compared with those globally. Urgent public health engagement should focus on women, Qataris (non-migrants), and those of Arab ethnicity.Funding: The study received an Emergency Response Grant Fund from Qatar University (QUERG-CAS-2020-1).Scopu

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Global, regional and national burden of bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Introduction The current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors). Methods Various data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Results Globally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990–2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 100 000), while Lebanon had the highest age-standardised death rate (10.4 (8.1 to 13.7)). Cabo Verde had the highest increase in age-standardised incidence (284.2% (214.1 to 362.8)) and death rates (190.3% (139.3 to 251.1)) between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the global age-standardised incidence and death rates were higher among males than females, across all age groups and peaked in the 95+ age group. Globally, 36.8% (28.5 to 44.0) of bladder cancer DALYs were attributable to smoking, more so in males than females (43.7% (34.0 to 51.8) vs 15.2% (10.9 to 19.4)). In addition, 9.1% (1.9 to 19.6) of the DALYs were attributable to elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (males 9.3% (1.6 to 20.9); females 8.4% (1.6 to 19.1)). Conclusions There was considerable variation in the burden of bladder cancer between countries during the period 1990–2019. Although there was a clear global decrease in the age-standardised death, and DALY rates, some countries experienced an increase in these rates. National policy makers should learn from these differences, and allocate resources for preventative measures, based on their country-specific estimates. In addition, smoking and elevated FPG play an important role in the burden of bladder cancer and need to be addressed with prevention programmes.publishedVersio

Diversity, distribution and conservation of the terrestrial reptiles of Oman (Sauropsida, Squamata)

All authors: Salvador Carranza , Meritxell Xipell, Pedro Tarroso, Andrew Gardner, Edwin Nicholas Arnold, Michael D. Robinson, Marc Simó-Riudalbas, Raquel Vasconcelos, Philip de Pous, Fèlix Amat, Jiří Šmíd, Roberto Sindaco, Margarita Metallinou †, Johannes Els, Juan Manuel Pleguezuelos, Luis Machado, David Donaire, Gabriel Martínez, Joan Garcia-Porta, Tomáš Mazuch, Thomas Wilms, Jürgen Gebhart, Javier Aznar, Javier Gallego, Bernd-Michael Zwanzig, Daniel Fernández-Guiberteau, Theodore Papenfuss, Saleh Al Saadi, Ali Alghafri, Sultan Khalifa, Hamed Al Farqani, Salim Bait Bilal, Iman Sulaiman Alazri, Aziza Saud Al Adhoobi, Zeyana Salim Al Omairi, Mohammed Al Shariani, Ali Al Kiyumi, Thuraya Al Sariri, Ahmed Said Al Shukaili, Suleiman Nasser Al Akhzami.In the present work, we use an exceptional database including 5,359 records of 101 species of Oman’s terrestrial reptiles together with spatial tools to infer the spatial patterns of species richness and endemicity, to infer the habitat preference of each species and to better define conservation priorities, with especial focus on the effectiveness of the protected areas in preserving this unique arid fauna. Our results indicate that the sampling effort is not only remarkable from a taxonomic point of view, with multiple observations for most species, but also for the spatial coverage achieved. The observations are distributed almost continuously across the two-dimensional climatic space of Oman defined by the mean annual temperature and the total annual precipitation and across the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the multivariate climatic space and are well represented within 17 out of the 20 climatic clusters grouping 10% of the explained climatic variance defined by PC1 and PC2. Species richness is highest in the Hajar and Dhofar Mountains, two of the most biodiverse areas of the Arabian Peninsula, and endemic species richness is greatest in the Jebel Akhdar, the highest part of the Hajar Mountains. Oman’s 22 protected areas cover only 3.91% of the country, including within their limits 63.37% of terrestrial reptiles and 50% of all endemics. Our analyses show that large areas of the climatic space of Oman lie outside protected areas and that seven of the 20 climatic clusters are not protected at all. The results of the gap analysis indicate that most of the species are below the conservation target of 17% or even the less restrictive 12% of their total area within a protected area in order to be considered adequately protected. Therefore, an evaluation of the coverage of the current network of protected areas and the identification of priority protected areas for reptiles using reserve design algorithms are urgently needed. Our study also shows that more than half of the species are still pending of a definitive evaluation by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).This work was funded by grants CGL2012-36970, CGL2015-70390-P from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Spain (cofunded by FEDER) to SC, the project Field study for the conservation of reptiles in Oman, Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs, Oman (Ref: 22412027) to SC and grant 2014-SGR-1532 from the Secretaria d'Universitats i Recerca del Departament d'Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya to SC. MSR is funded by a FPI grant from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Spain (BES-2013-064248); RV, PT and LM were funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) through post-doc grants (SFRH/BPD/79913/2011) to RV, (SFRH/BPD/93473/2013) to PT and PhD grant (SFRH/BD/89820/2012) to LM, financed by Programa Operacional Potencial Humano (POPH) – Quadro de Referência Estrategico Nacional (QREN) from the European Social Fund and Portuguese Ministerio da Educação e Ciência

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin