Understanding the epidemiology of avoidable significant harm in primary care:Protocol for a retrospective cross-sectional study

Introduction: Most patient safety research has focused on specialist-care settings where there is an appreciation of the frequency and causes of medical errors, and the resulting burden of adverse events. There have, however, been few large-scale robust studies that have investigated the extent and severity of avoidable harm in primary care. To address this, we will conduct a 12-month retrospective cross-sectional study involving case note review of primary care patients. Methods and Analysis: We will conduct electronic searches of general practice (GP) clinical computer systems to identify patients with avoidable significant harm. Up to sixteen general practices from three areas of England (East Midlands, London and the North West) will be recruited based on practice size, to obtain a sample of around 100,000 patients. Our investigations will include an ‘enhanced sample’ of patients with the highest risk of avoidable significant harm. We will estimate the incidence of avoidable significant harm and express this as ‘per 100,000 patients per year’. Univariate and multivariate analysis will be conducted to identify the factors associated with avoidable significant harm. Ethics/Dissemination: The decision regarding participation by general practices in the study is entirely voluntary; the consent to participate may be withdrawn at any time. We will not seek individual patient consent for the retrospective case note review, but if patients respond to publicity about the project and say they do not wish their records to be included we will follow these instructions. We will produce a report for the Department of Health’s Policy Research Programme and several high-quality peer-reviewed publications in scientific journals. The study has been granted a favourable opinion by the East Midlands Nottingham 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference 15/EM/0411) and Confidentiality Advisory Group approval for access to medical records without consent under section 251 of the NHS Act 2006 (reference 15/CAG/0182)

Incidence, nature and causes of avoidable significant harm in primary care in England:retrospective case note review

Objective To estimate the incidence of avoidable significant harm in primary care in England; describe and classify the associated patient safety incidents and generate suggestions to mitigate risks of ameliorable factors contributing to the incidents. Design Retrospective case note review. Patients with significant health problems were identified and clinical judgements were made on avoidability and severity of harm. Factors contributing to avoidable harm were identified and recorded. Setting Primary care. Participants Thirteen general practitioners (GPs) undertook a retrospective case note review of a sample of 14 407 primary care patients registered with 12 randomly selected general practices from three regions in England (total list size: 92 255 patients). Main outcome measures The incidence of significant harm considered at least ‘probably avoidable’ and the nature of the safety incidents. Results The rate of significant harm considered at least probably avoidable was 35.6 (95% CI 23.3 to 48.0) per 100 000 patient-years (57.9, 95% CI 42.2 to 73.7, per 100 000 based on a sensitivity analysis). Overall, 74 cases of avoidable harm were detected, involving 72 patients. Three types of incident accounted for more than 90% of the problems: problems with diagnosis accounted for 45/74 (60.8%) primary incidents, followed by medication-related problems (n=19, 25.7%) and delayed referrals (n=8, 10.8%). In 59 (79.7%) cases, the significant harm could have been identified sooner (n=48) or prevented (n=11) if the GP had taken actions aligned with evidence-based guidelines. Conclusion There is likely to be a substantial burden of avoidable significant harm attributable to primary care in England with diagnostic error accounting for most harms. Based on the contributory factors we found, improvements could be made through more effective implementation of existing information technology, enhanced team coordination and communication, and greater personal and informational continuity of care

PROPHETIC: Prospective Identification of Pneumonia in Hospitalized Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading infection-related cause of death. Using simple clinical criteria and contemporary epidemiology to identify patients at high risk of nosocomial pneumonia should enhance prevention efforts and facilitate development of new treatments in clinical trials. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the clinical criteria and contemporary epidemiology trends helpful in identifying patients at high risk of nosocomial pneumonia? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Within the intensive care units of 28 United States hospitals, we conducted a prospective cohort study among adults hospitalized more than 48 hours and considered high risk for pneumonia (defined as treatment with invasive or noninvasive ventilatory support or high levels of supplemental oxygen). We estimated the proportion of high-risk patients developing nosocomial pneumonia. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified patient characteristics and treatment exposures associated with increased risk of pneumonia development during the intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: Between February 6, 2016 and October 7, 2016, 4613 high-risk patients were enrolled. Among 1464/4613 (32%) high-risk patients treated for possible nosocomial pneumonia, 537/1464 (37%) met the study pneumonia definition. Among high-risk patients, a multivariable logistic model was developed to identify key patient characteristics and treatment exposures associated with increased risk of nosocomial pneumonia development (c-statistic 0.709, 95% confidence interval 0.686 to 0.731). Key factors associated with increased odds of nosocomial pneumonia included an admission diagnosis of trauma or cerebrovascular accident, receipt of enteral nutrition, documented aspiration risk, and receipt of systemic antibacterials within the preceding 90 days. INTERPRETATION: Treatment for nosocomial pneumonia is common among intensive care unit patients receiving high levels of respiratory support, yet more than half of patients treated do not fulfill standard diagnostic criteria for pneumonia. Application of simple clinical criteria may improve the feasibility of clinical trials of pneumonia prevention and treatment by facilitating prospective identification of patients at highest risk

On the importance of blind testing in archaeological science: the example from lithic functional studies

YesBlind-testing is an important tool that should be used by all analytical fields as an approach for validating method. Several fields do this well outside of archaeological science. It is unfortunate that many applied methods do not have a strong underpinning built on, what should be considered necessary, blind-testing. Historically lithic microwear analysis has been subjected to such testing, the results of which stirred considerable debate. However, putting this aside, it is argued here that the tests have not been adequately exploited. Too much attention has been focused on basic results and the implications of those rather than using the tests as a powerful tool to improve the method. Here the tests are revisited and reviewed in a new light. This approach is used to highlight specific areas of methodological weakness that can be targeted by developmental research. It illustrates the value in having a large dataset of consistently designed blind-tests in method evaluation and suggests that fields such as lithic microwear analysis would greatly benefit from such testing. Opportunity is also taken to discuss recent developments in quantitative methods within lithic functional studies and how such techniques might integrate with current practices

Mathematical modelling of hepatic lipid metabolism

The aim of this paper is to develop a mathematical model capable of simulating the metabolic response to a variety of mixed meals in fed and fasted conditions with particular emphasis placed on the hepatic triglyceride element of the model. Model validation is carried out using experimental data for the ingestion of three mixed composition meals over a 24-hour period. Comparison with experimental data suggests the model predicts key plasma lipids accurately given a prescribed insulin profile. One counter-intuitive observation to arise from simulations is that liver triglyceride initially decreases when a high fat meal is ingested, a phenomenon potentially explained by the carbohydrate portion of the meal raising plasma insulin

Multiscale simulations of tropospheric chemistry in the eastern Pacific and on the U.S. West Coast during spring 2002

Regional modeling analysis for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) experiment over the eastern Pacific and U.S. West Coast is performed using a multiscale modeling system, including the regional tracer model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS), the Sulfur Transport and Emissions Model 2003 (STEM-2K3) regional chemical transport model, and an off-line coupling with the Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) global chemical transport model. CO regional tracers calculated online in the CFORS model are used to identify aircraft measurement periods with Asian influences. Asian-influenced air masses measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3 aircraft in this experiment are found to have lower ΔAcetone/ΔCO, ΔMethanol /ΔCO, and ΔPropane/ ΔEthyne ratios than air masses influenced by U.S. emissions, reflecting differences in regional emission signals. The Asian air masses in the eastern Pacific are found to usually be well aged (\u3e5 days), to be highly diffused, and to have low NOy levels. Chemical budget analysis is performed for two flights, and the O3 net chemical budgets are found to be negative (net destructive) in the places dominated by Asian influences or clear sites and positive in polluted American air masses. During the trans-Pacific transport, part of gaseous HNO3 was converted to nitrate particle, and this conversion was attributed to NOy decline. Without the aerosol consideration, the model tends to overestimate HNO3 background concentration along the coast region. At the measurement site of Trinidad Head, northern California, high- concentration pollutants are usually associated with calm wind scenarios, implying that the accumulation of local pollutants leads to the high concentration. Seasonal variations are also discussed from April to May for this site. A high-resolution nesting simulation with 12-km horizontal resolution is used to study the WP-3 flight over Los Angeles and surrounding areas. This nested simulation significantly improved the predictions for emitted and secondary generated species. The difference of photochemical behavior between the coarse (60-km) and nesting simulations is discussed and compared with the observation. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union

Preliminary Assessment of the Efficacy of a T-Cell–Based Influenza Vaccine, MVA-NP+M1, in Humans

A single vaccination with MVA-NP+M1 boosts T-cell responses to conserved influenza antigens in humans. Protection against influenza disease and virus shedding was demonstrated in an influenza virus challenge study

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy