Assessment of Beach Abration Vulnerability Levels and Directions for Space Utilization in Central Pariaman District Pariaman City

Haryani (2012, 2018) in the coastal area of ​​West Sumatra Province from 2003-2016 there has been a disaster of coastal abrasion and accretion at 32 points. During the 13 years, there was beach abrasion covering an area of ​​732.69 ha and coastal accretion covering an area of ​​55.4 ha. Coastal abrasion disaster causes a significant reduction in coastal land, namely an average of 56.3 ha / year, while the addition of coastal / coastal land is only 4.26 ha / year.This study aims to find the level of vulnerability of coastal abrasion in Central Pariaman District, Pariaman City. Physical, social, economic, and environmental parameters were analyzed using the scoring method according to Perka BNPB No. 2 of 2012. The results showed that the index of coastal abrasion vulnerability in Karan Aur, Lohong and Pasir villages had a moderate index, while Pauh Barat village had a high vulnerability index. Coastal abrasion mitigation is carried out by means of active mitigation and passive mitigation. Passive mitigation includes directional use of space where in the zone of 100 - 150 m from the highest tide and the growing beach is directed as a conservation area by planting mangroves and Pinago trees and agro-tourism (limited tourism). The cultivation zone is a zone that is located> 150 m from the highest tide inland, which is a safe zone for coastal abrasion for settlements and trade

STRATEGI PEMANFAATAN DATA TERPADU KESEJAHTERAAN SOSIAL (DTKS) DALAM PENYALURAN BANTUAN SOSIAL RS-RTLH OLEH DINAS SOSIAL PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial (DTKS) adalah suatu data yang menjadi sumber acuan untuk pelaksanaan penyelenggaraan kesejahteraan sosial dalam hal ini data tersebut berisikan data pemerlu bantuan sosial dan pelayanan kesejahteraan sosial. Tujuan dari penelitian ini agar mengetahui strategi apa yang dipakai untuk penyaluran bantuan dan apa manfaat yang dari DTKS ini untuk digunakan sebagai dasar acuan dalam penyaluran bantuan salah satunya Rehabilitasi Sosial-Rumah Tidak Layak Huni (RS-RTLH) yang dikelola oleh Dinas Sosial Daerah Provinsi Sulawesi Utara. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif dengan mengumpulkan data dari beberapa sumber yakni wawancara, observasi dan literasi. Hasil yang kami dapat pada penelitian ini berupa strategi dalam bentuk Tahapan dalam pengelolaan Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial meliputi usulan data serta verifikasi dan validasi, pengendalian atau penjaminan kualitas, sampai penetapan dan penggunaan. Setiap penerima bantuan RS-RTLH harus terdaftar dalam DTKS yang sudah terverifikasi dan tervalidasi kelengkapan administrasi dan pengecekan dilapangan guna memastikan penerima benar-benar layak untuk dibantu, sehingga bantuan RS-RTLH berupa rumah layak huni menjadi tepat sasaran. Hambatan dan kendala yang didapat dalam penelitian ini berupa keluarga yang sudah mampu namun masih terdata dalam DTKS dan sebaliknya keluarga yang tergolong tidak mampu namun tidak terdata dalam DTKS. Adapun cara untuk mengatasi kendala tersebut adalah untuk melakukan update data setiap bulannya.   Kata Kunci: Bantuan Sosial, DTKS, Strategi, RS-RTLHData Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial (DTKS) adalah suatu data yang menjadi sumber acuan untuk pelaksanaan penyelenggaraan kesejahteraan sosial dalam hal ini data tersebut berisikan data pemerlu bantuan sosial dan pelayanan kesejahteraan sosial. Tujuan dari penelitian ini agar mengetahui strategi apa yang dipakai untuk penyaluran bantuan dan apa manfaat yang dari DTKS ini untuk digunakan sebagai dasar acuan dalam penyaluran bantuan salah satunya Rehabilitasi Sosial-Rumah Tidak Layak Huni (RS-RTLH) yang dikelola oleh Dinas Sosial Daerah Provinsi Sulawesi Utara. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif dengan mengumpulkan data dari beberapa sumber yakni wawancara, observasi dan literasi. Hasil yang kami dapat pada penelitian ini berupa strategi dalam bentuk Tahapan dalam pengelolaan Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial meliputi usulan data serta verifikasi dan validasi, pengendalian atau penjaminan kualitas, sampai penetapan dan penggunaan. Setiap penerima bantuan RS-RTLH harus terdaftar dalam DTKS yang sudah terverifikasi dan tervalidasi kelengkapan administrasi dan pengecekan dilapangan guna memastikan penerima benar-benar layak untuk dibantu, sehingga bantuan RS-RTLH berupa rumah layak huni menjadi tepat sasaran. Hambatan dan kendala yang didapat dalam penelitian ini berupa keluarga yang sudah mampu namun masih terdata dalam DTKS dan sebaliknya keluarga yang tergolong tidak mampu namun tidak terdata dalam DTKS. Adapun cara untuk mengatasi kendala tersebut adalah untuk melakukan update data setiap bulannya.   Kata Kunci: Bantuan Sosial, DTKS, Strategi, RS-RTL

Perbandingan Angka Keberhasilan, Waktu Dan Kenyamanan Intubasi Endotrakea Antara Operator Posisi Berdiri Dan Duduk Pada Pasien Posisi Sniffing

Kemampuan untuk visualisasi glotis saat melakukan tindakan laringoskopi direk merupakan kunci untuk melakukan tindakan intubasi endotrakea. Posisi sniffing dan ketinggian meja berpengaruh pada visualisasi glotis dan kenyamanan operator saat intubasi endotrakea. Namun, meja operasi sering ditemukan tidak berfungsi dengan baik. Ketersediaan kursi ergonomis diharapkan sebagai alternatif untuk menjawab permasalahan yang terjadi. Tujuan penelitian ini mengetahui perbandingan keberhasilan, waktu, dan kenyamanan operator pada intubasi endotrakea dengan pasien posisi sniffing menggunakan bantal kepala antara operator posisi berdiri dan duduk. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian prospective randomized paralel trial, dilakukan pada 44 pasien yang menjalani operasi elektif dan emergensi dengan anestesi umum yang memenuhi kriteria inklusi dan tidak termasuk kriteria eksklusi. Penelitian dilakukan di ruang operasi elektif dan emergensi RSUP Dr. Hasan Sadikin pada bulan Oktober 2020. Analisis statistik menggunakan t independent test untuk lama intubasi dan kenyamanan pasien, sedangkan untuk data kategorik dengan uji chi-square. Keberhasilan dan lama waktu intubasi endotrakea pada pasien posisi sniffing menggunakan bantal dengan operator posisi berdiri dan duduk tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan (p>0,05). Pada variabel skor kenyamanan intubasi endotrakea pada pasien posisi sniffing menggunakan bantal dengan operator posisi berdiri dan duduk terdapat perbedaan rerata yang sangat signifikan (p0.05) in intubation time and success rate of endotracheal intubation on patients in sniffing position using a head cushion between sitting and standing position of the operator. There was a significant mean difference (p0,05) pada variabel keberhasilan dan waktu intubasi endotrakea pada pasien posisi sniffing menggunakan bantal dengan operator posisi berdiri dan duduk. Terdapat perbedaan rerata yang sangat signifikan (p<0,01) pada variabel skor kenyamanan intubasi endotrakea pada pasien posisi sniffing menggunakan bantal dengan operator posisi berdiri dan duduk. Skor kenyamanan intubasi endotrakea posisi duduk lebih baik dibandingkan posisi berdir

Efektivitas oksigenasi dan ventilasi saat induksi anestesi umum menggunakan masker bedah dinilai berdasarkan SpO2 dan EtCO2

Anestesiolog memiliki risiko tinggi terpapar aerosol pada saat melakukan tindakan ventilasi maupun intubasi. Anestesiolog harus dapat melakukan ventilasi dengan baik selama induksi anestesi umum. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui efektivitas oksigenasi dan ventilasi saat induksi anestesi umum pada pasien yang menggunakan masker bedah dinilai berdasar atas SpO2 dan EtCO2. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian analisis numerik berpasangan dengan rancangan eksperimental pada pasien yang dilakukan operasi elektif dengan anestesi umum di Instalasi Bedah Sentral RSUP Dr. Hasan Sadikin Bandung pada bulan November–Desember 2020. Selama induksi anestesi, pasien menggunakan masker bedah kemudian dilakukan penilaian SpO2 dan EtCO2 pada saat sebelum induksi dan selama induksi menit ke-1, 2, dan 3. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan nilai SpO2 dan EtCO2  preinduksi dan pada menit ke-1, 2, dan 3 diperoleh nilai rerata SpO2 dan EtCO2 induksi menit ke-1, ke-2, dan ke-3 tidak lebih inferior dibanding dengan nilai pra induksi (p<0,05) dengan nilai rerata SpO2 dan EtCO2 dalam batas normal.Simpulan penelitian adalah penggunaan masker bedah selama induksi tidak mengurangi efektivitas oksigenasi dan ventilasipada pasien yang dilakukan anestesi umum dinilai berdasar atas SpO2 dan EtCO2. Effectiveness of Oxygenation and Ventilation During General Anesthesia Induction Using Surgical Mask Assessed by SpO2 and EtCO2 Anesthesiologist have high risk for exposure of aerosol during ventilation or intubation. They must do ventilation during induction of general anesthesia effectively. The study was aimed to know how effective the oxygenation and ventilation during induction of general anesthesia while using surgical mask assessed by SpO2 and EtCO2. The research was a numerical analytic with experimental design performed on elective surgery patients done by general anesthesia in central operating theatre Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung in November–December 2020. During induction of anesthesia, patient were using surgical mask and assessment of SpO2 and EtCO2 was done before induction and during induction in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd minute induction. The result of the study revealed SpO2 and EtCO2  preinduction and 1st, 2nd, and 3rd minute induction had SpO2 and EtCO2 value in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd minute induction not inferior to pre induction value, with SpO2 and EtCO2 value within normal limit.The study has concluded that using surgical mask during induction does not decrease the effectiveness of oxygenation and ventilation in patient with general anesthesia assessed by SpO2 and EtCO2.Anestesiolog memiliki risiko tinggi terpapar aerosol pada saat melakukan tindakan ventilasi maupun intubasi. Anestesiolog harus dapat melakukan ventilasi dengan baik selama induksi anestesi umum. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui efektivitas oksigenasi dan ventilasi saat induksi anestesi umum pada pasien yang menggunakan masker bedah dinilai berdasarkan SpO2 dan EtCO2. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian analisis numerik berpasangan dengan rancangan eksperimental pada pasien yang dilakukan operasi elektif dengan anestesi umum di Instalasi Bedah Sentral RSUP Dr. Hasan Sadikin Bandung pada bulan November – Desember 2020. Selama induksi anestesi, pasien menggunakan masker bedah kemudian dilakukan penilaian SpO2 dan EtCO2 pada saat sebelum induksi dan selama induksi menit ke-1, 2 dan 3. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan nilai SpO2 dan EtCO2  preinduksi dan pada menit ke-1, 2 dan 3 diperoleh nilai rata-rata SpO2 dan EtCO2 induksi menit ke-1, ke-2 dan ke-3 tidak lebih inferior dibandingkan dengan nilai pra induksi (p<0,05) dengan nilai rata-rata SpO2 dan EtCO2 dalam batas normal.Simpulan penelitian adalah penggunaan masker bedah selama induksi tidak mengurangi efektivitas oksigenasi dan ventilasipada pasien yang dilakukan anestesi umum dinilai berdasarkan SpO2 dan EtCO2

PEMBERDAYAAN MASYARAKAT AKAN KEBUTUHAN AIR BERSIH DI DUSUN TEGALSARI DESA KUPANG, KECAMATAN JABON, KABUPATEN SIDOARJO

Pemanasan global saat ini menimbulkan berbagai masalah lingkungan, salah satunya adalah krisis air bersih. Di Indonesia, daerah pesisir merupakan daerah yang sering kekurangan air bersih. Salah satu kawasan pesisir yang kekurangan air bersih adalah Dusun Tegalsari, Desa Kupang, Kecamatan Jabon, Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Salah satu solusi untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut adalah kegiatan amal yang diselenggarakan oleh mahasiswa Universitas Kristen Petra melalui metode service-learning. Pembelajaran service-learning instalasi balam dilakukan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat pesisir di lokasi penelitian yang membutuhkan air bersih. Selain itu, siswa belajar untuk berpikir kritis ketika memecahkan masalah sosial dan mempromosikan kepedulian terhadap lingkungan dan masyarakat. Teknologi balam membersihkan air payau dengan material lokal sehingga air menjadi lebih jernih dan dapat digunakan untuk kebutuhan sehari-hari. Cara kerja ini dibagi menjadi tiga langkah/fase. Fase pertama adalah fase pra-implementasi, area disurvei dan beberapa peralatan dibeli dan dipasang. Fase implementasi, perangkat balam dipasang di lokasi. Fase pasca-implementasi, wawancara dengan warga dan penyebaran kuesioner tentang kepuasan terhadap kegiatan service-learning tersebut. Hasilnya adalah lima rumah warga Dusun Tegalsari memiliki fasilitas air sehat yang memadai dan layak digunakan. Kemudian, sebanyak 85% responden yang memasang perangkat BALAM di rumahnya merasa sangat puas dan 15% responden merasa cukup puas

Pengaruh Perendaman Beberapa Konsentrasi Potassium Nitrat (KNO3) dan Air Kelapa Terhadap Viabilitas Biji Delima (Punica granatum L.) : Effect of Potassium nitrate (KNO3) and Coconut Water Concentrationon Seed Viability of Pomegranate (Punica granatum L.)

Potassium Nitrat (KNO3) merupakan salah satu perangsang perkecambahan yang sering digunakan. Air kelapa merupakan larutan yang dapat digunakan untuk mempercepat proses perkecambahan. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Laboratorium Teknologi Benih Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Sumatera Utara Medan dengan ketinggian + 25 meter dpl, dari bulan April sampai Mei 2016, menggunakan rancangan acak kelompok dengan 2 faktor perlakuan. Faktor pertama adalah konsentrasi KNO3 dengan 4 taraf yaitu 0%, 0,1%, 0,2%, dan 0,3% faktor kedua konsentrasi air kelapa dengan 3 taraf yaitu 0%, 50%, dan 100%. Parameter pengamatan adalah persentase perkecambahan, laju perkecambahan, indeks vigor, persentase kecambah normal, persentase kecambah abnormal dan persentase biji tidak tumbuh. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan perlakuan konsentrasi KNO3 berpengaruh nyata terhadap parameter persentase perkecambahan, laju perkecambahan biji, indeks vigor, persentase kecambah normal dan persentase biji tidak tumbuh. Perlakuan konsentrasi air kelapa berpengaruh nyata terhadap parameter persentase perkecambahan, indeks vigor, dan persentase kecambah normal dan persentase biji tidak tumbuh. Interaksi konsentrasi KN03 dan air kelapa berpengaruh nyata terhadap parameter persentase perkecambahan, laju perkecambahan biji, indeks vigor, persentase kecambah normal dan persentase biji tidak tumbuh. Peningkatan viabilitas biji delima dapat dilakukan dengan perendaman KNO3 0,1%

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning