GP-SUM. Gaussian Processes Filtering of non-Gaussian Beliefs

This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attribute of GP-SUM is that it does not rely on linearizations of the dynamic or observation models, or on unimodal Gaussian approximations of the belief, hence enables tracking complex state distributions. The algorithm can be seen as a combination of a sampling-based filter with a probabilistic Bayes filter. On the one hand, GP-SUM operates by sampling the state distribution and propagating each sample through the dynamic system and observation models. On the other hand, it achieves effective sampling and accurate probabilistic propagation by relying on the GP form of the system, and the sum-of-Gaussian form of the belief. We show that GP-SUM outperforms several GP-Bayes and Particle Filters on a standard benchmark. We also demonstrate its use in a pushing task, predicting with experimental accuracy the naturally occurring non-Gaussian distributions.Comment: WAFR 2018, 16 pages, 7 figure

Spreading, Nonergodicity, and Selftrapping: a puzzle of interacting disordered lattice waves

Localization of waves by disorder is a fundamental physical problem encompassing a diverse spectrum of theoretical, experimental and numerical studies in the context of metal-insulator transitions, the quantum Hall effect, light propagation in photonic crystals, and dynamics of ultra-cold atoms in optical arrays, to name just a few examples. Large intensity light can induce nonlinear response, ultracold atomic gases can be tuned into an interacting regime, which leads again to nonlinear wave equations on a mean field level. The interplay between disorder and nonlinearity, their localizing and delocalizing effects is currently an intriguing and challenging issue in the field of lattice waves. In particular it leads to the prediction and observation of two different regimes of destruction of Anderson localization - asymptotic weak chaos, and intermediate strong chaos, separated by a crossover condition on densities. On the other side approximate full quantum interacting many body treatments were recently used to predict and obtain a novel many body localization transition, and two distinct phases - a localization phase, and a delocalization phase, both again separated by some typical density scale. We will discuss selftrapping, nonergodicity and nonGibbsean phases which are typical for such discrete models with particle number conservation and their relation to the above crossover and transition physics. We will also discuss potential connections to quantum many body theories.Comment: 13 pages in Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 1 M. Tlidi and M. G. Clerc (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics: Materials, Theory and Experiment, Springer Proceedings in Physics 173. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1405.112

Development of a generic activities model of command and control

This paper reports on five different models of command and control. Four different models are reviewed: a process model, a contextual control model, a decision ladder model and a functional model. Further to this, command and control activities are analysed in three distinct domains: armed forces, emergency services and civilian services. From this analysis, taxonomies of command and control activities are developed that give rise to an activities model of command and control. This model will be used to guide further research into technological support of command and control activities

2018 European Thyroid Association (ETA) Guidelines on the Diagnosis and Management of Central Hypothyroidism.

OBJECTIVES: Central hypothyroidism (CeH) is a rare form of hypothyroidism characterized by insufficient thyroid stimulation due to disturbed pituitary and/or hypothalamic functioning. Due to its origin and the whole clinical context, CeH represents a challenging condition in clinical practice as it is characterized by suboptimal accuracy of clinical and biochemical parameters for diagnosis and management. Since no expert consensus or guidance for this condition is currently available, a task force of experts received the commitment from the European Thyroid Association (ETA) to prepare this document based on the principles of clinical evidence. STUDY DESIGN: The task force started to work in February 2017 and after a careful selection of appropriate references (cohort studies, case reports, expert opinions), a preliminary presentation and live discussion during the 2017 ETA meeting, and several revision rounds, has prepared a list of recommendations to support the diagnosis and management of patients with CeH. RESULTS: Due to the particular challenges of this rare condition in the different ages, the target users of this guidance are pediatric and adult endocrinologists. Experts agreed on the need to recognize and treat overt CeH at all ages, whereas treatment of milder forms may be dispensable in the elderly (> 75 years). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the lack of randomized controlled clinical trials, the experts provide 34 recommendations supported by variable levels of strength that should improve the quality of life of the affected patients and reduce the metabolic and hormonal consequences of inadequate management.This is a guidelines article so funding sources are not acknowledged. However, my personal grant is from the Wellcome Trus

Nitrogen transfer from forage legumes to nine neighbouring plants in a multi-species grassland

Legumes play a crucial role in nitrogen supply to grass-legume mixtures for ruminant fodder. To quantify N transfer from legumes to neighbouring plants in multi-species grasslands we established a grass-legume-herb mixture on a loamy-sandy site in Denmark. White clover (Trifolium repens L.), red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) were leaf-labelled with 15N enriched urea during one growing season. N transfer to grasses (Lolium perenne L. and xfestulolium), white clover, red clover, lucerne, birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus L.), chicory (Cichorium intybus L.), plantain (Plantago lanceolata L.), salad burnet (Sanguisorba minor L.)and caraway (Carum carvi L.) was assessed. Neighbouring plants contained greater amounts of N derived from white clover (4.8 gm-2) compared with red clover (2.2 gm-2) and lucerne (1.1 gm-2). Grasses having fibrous roots received greater amounts of N from legumes than dicotyledonous plants which generally have taproots. Slurry application mainly increased N transfer from legumes to grasses. During the growing season the three legumes transferred approximately 40 kg N ha-1 to neighbouring plants. Below-ground N transfer from legumes to neighbouring plants differed among nitrogen donors and nitrogen receivers and may depend on root characteristics and regrowth strategies of plant species in the multi-species grassland

Effective width equations accounting for element interaction for cold-formed stainless steel square and rectangular hollow sections

Rectangular hollow sections featuring high height-to-width (aspect) ratios have shown to offer improved ultimate capacity due to the effects of the interaction between the elements within the cross-section which are particularly significant for slender cross-sections (class 4) undergoing local buckling. The European design rules dealing with stainless steel, EN 1993- 1-4 [1], utilises the concept of cross-section classification and the effective width method for the design of slender cross-sections susceptible to local buckling neglecting such interaction effects, hence resulting in conservative predictions. This paper examines the benefits of element interaction effects on cold-formed ferritic stainless steel compressed sections on the basis of carefully validated finite element models. Following parametric studies, the applicability of various alternative design approaches accounting for element interaction to ferritic stainless steel is assessed and effective width curves, as well as a Class 3 limiting slenderness equation, are derived herein as an explicit function of the aspect ratio. Comparisons with the loads achieved in the FE models have shown that the proposed effective width equations allowing for the benefits of element interaction improve capacity predictions making design more cost-effective.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovació

Synthetic organisms and living machines: Positioning the products of synthetic biology at the borderline between living and non-living matter

The difference between a non-living machine such as a vacuum cleaner and a living organism as a lion seems to be obvious. The two types of entities differ in their material consistence, their origin, their development and their purpose. This apparently clear-cut borderline has previously been challenged by fictitious ideas of “artificial organism” and “living machines” as well as by progress in technology and breeding. The emergence of novel technologies such as artificial life, nanobiotechnology and synthetic biology are definitely blurring the boundary between our understanding of living and non-living matter. This essay discusses where, at the borderline between living and non-living matter, we can position the future products of synthetic biology that belong to the two hybrid entities “synthetic organisms” and “living machines” and how the approaching realization of such hybrid entities affects our understanding of organisms and machines. For this purpose we focus on the description of three different types of synthetic biology products and the aims assigned to their realization: (1) synthetic minimal cells aimed at by protocell synthetic biology, (2) chassis organisms strived for by synthetic genomics and (3) genetically engineered machines produced by bioengineering. We argue that in the case of synthetic biology the purpose is more decisive for the categorization of a product as an organism or a machine than its origin and development. This has certain ethical implications because the definition of an entity as machine seems to allow bypassing the discussion about the assignment and evaluation of instrumental and intrinsic values, which can be raised in the case of organisms

Tracing the dynamic life story of a Bronze Age Female

YesAncient human mobility at the individual level is conventionally studied by the diverse application of suitable techniques (e.g. aDNA, radiogenic strontium isotopes, as well as oxygen and lead isotopes) to either hard and/or soft tissues. However, the limited preservation of coexisting hard and soft human tissues hampers the possibilities of investigating high-resolution diachronic mobility periods in the life of a single individual. Here, we present the results of a multidisciplinary study of an exceptionally well preserved circa 3.400-year old Danish Bronze Age female find, known as the Egtved Girl. We applied biomolecular, biochemical and geochemical analyses to reconstruct her mobility and diet. We demonstrate that she originated from a place outside present day Denmark (the island of Bornholm excluded), and that she travelled back and forth over large distances during the final months of her life, while consuming a terrestrial diet with intervals of reduced protein intake. We also provide evidence that all her garments were made of non-locally produced wool. Our study advocates the huge potential of combining biomolecular and biogeochemical provenance tracer analyses to hard and soft tissues of a single ancient individual for the reconstruction of high-resolution human mobility.The Danish National Research Foundation; The Carlsberg Foundation, L'Oreal Denmark-UNESCO; The ERC agreement no. 26944

The impact of resolution on the representation of Greenland barrier winds and katabatic flows

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 3011–3018, doi:10.1002/2015GL063550.Southern Greenland is characterized by a number of low-level high wind speed weather systems that are the result of topographic flow distortion. These systems include barrier winds and katabatic flow that occur along its southeast coast. Global atmospheric reanalyses have proven to be important tools in furthering our understanding of these orographic winds and their role in the climate system. However, there is evidence that the mesoscale characteristics of these systems may be missed in these global products. Here we show that the Arctic System Reanalysis, a higher-resolution regional reanalysis, is able to capture mesoscale features of barrier winds and katabatic flow that are missed or underrepresented in ERA-I, a leading modern global reanalysis. This suggests that our understanding of the impact of these wind systems on the coupled-climate system can be enhanced through the use of higher-resolution regional reanalyses or model data.2015-10-1

Childhood socioeconomic position and objectively measured physical capability levels in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis

<p><b>Background:</b> Grip strength, walking speed, chair rising and standing balance time are objective measures of physical capability that characterise current health and predict survival in older populations. Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood may influence the peak level of physical capability achieved in early adulthood, thereby affecting levels in later adulthood. We have undertaken a systematic review with meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that adverse childhood SEP is associated with lower levels of objectively measured physical capability in adulthood.</p> <p><b>Methods and Findings:</b> Relevant studies published by May 2010 were identified through literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE. Unpublished results were obtained from study investigators. Results were provided by all study investigators in a standard format and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. 19 studies were included in the review. Total sample sizes in meta-analyses ranged from N = 17,215 for chair rise time to N = 1,061,855 for grip strength. Although heterogeneity was detected, there was consistent evidence in age adjusted models that lower childhood SEP was associated with modest reductions in physical capability levels in adulthood: comparing the lowest with the highest childhood SEP there was a reduction in grip strength of 0.13 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21), a reduction in mean walking speed of 0.07 m/s (0.05, 0.10), an increase in mean chair rise time of 6% (4%, 8%) and an odds ratio of an inability to balance for 5s of 1.26 (1.02, 1.55). Adjustment for the potential mediating factors, adult SEP and body size attenuated associations greatly. However, despite this attenuation, for walking speed and chair rise time, there was still evidence of moderate associations.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Policies targeting socioeconomic inequalities in childhood may have additional benefits in promoting the maintenance of independence in later life.</p&gt