Laplace Approximation for Divisive Gaussian Processes for Nonstationary Regression

The standard Gaussian Process regression (GP) is usually formulated under stationary hypotheses: The noise power is considered constant throughout the input space and the covariance of the prior distribution is typically modeled as depending only on the difference between input samples. These assumptions can be too restrictive and unrealistic for many real-world problems. Although nonstationarity can be achieved using specific covariance functions, they require a prior knowledge of the kind of nonstationarity, not available for most applications. In this paper we propose to use the Laplace approximation to make inference in a divisive GP model to perform nonstationary regression, including heteroscedastic noise cases. The log-concavity of the likelihood ensures a unimodal posterior and makes that the Laplace approximation converges to a unique maximum. The characteristics of the likelihood also allow to obtain accurate posterior approximations when compared to the Expectation Propagation (EP) approximations and the asymptotically exact posterior provided by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation with Elliptical Slice Sampling (ESS), but at a reduced computational load with respect to both, EP and ESS

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Differential recovery of habitat use by birds after wind farm installation: A multi-year comparison

Onshore wind farms remain one of the most widely used technologies for the production of renewable energy. These are known to affect birds through disturbance or collision. Most research focus on the impact of wind farms on raptors or other large bird species, especially those of conservation concern. However, limited information exists on the effect of wind farms on small birds. Recovery of large versus small bird populations impacted by wind farms is also largely unstudied. A reason for this is the lack of long-term datasets based on standardized, systematic assessments. We monitored birds in the vicinity of a wind farm in an upland habitat in southern Spain (Malaga province), immediately after installation and 6.5 years post-construction. During both study periods, we observed 11 raptor and 38 non-raptor species (including 30 passerines). We found differences in recovery rates between raptors and non-raptors. Raptors showed an upturn in numbers but non-raptor abundance fell significantly. Greater attention should be paid to the recovery of wildlife after initial impact assessments than at present. This study confirms that regulatory authorities and developers should consider the likely impacts of wind farms on small bird populations. Mitigation measures focused particularly on non-raptor species should be considered and implemented as a means to reduce these negative effects

A smog chamber comparison of a microfluidic derivatisation measurement of gas-phase glyoxal and methylglyoxal with other analytical techniques

A microfluidic lab-on-a-chip derivatisation technique has been developed to measure part per billion (ppbV) mixing ratios of gaseous glyoxal (GLY) and methylglyoxal (MGLY), and the method is compared with other techniques in a smog chamber experiment. The method uses-(2, 3, 4, 5, 6-pentafluorobenzyl) hydroxylamine (PFBHA) as a derivatisation reagent and a microfabricated planar glass micro-reactor comprising an inlet, gas and fluid splitting and combining channels, mixing junctions, and a heated capillary reaction microchannel. The enhanced phase contact area-to-volume ratio and the high heat transfer rate in the micro-reactor resulted in a fast and highly efficient derivatisation reaction, generating an effluent stream ready for direct introduction to a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer (GC-MS). A linear response for GLY was observed over a calibration range 0.7 to 400 ppbV, and for MGLY of 1.2 to 300 ppbV, when derivatised under optimal reaction conditions. The analytical performance shows good accuracy (6.6% for GLY and 7.5% for MGLY), suitable precision (<12.0%) with method detection limits (MDLs) of 75 pptV for GLY and 185 pptV for MGLY, with a time resolution of 30 min. These MDLs are below or close to typical concentrations of these compounds observed in ambient air. The feasibility of the technique was assessed by applying the methodology to quantify α-dicarbonyls formed during the photo-oxidation of isoprene in the EUPHORE chamber. Good correlations were found between microfluidic measurements and Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR) with a correlation coefficient (2) of 0.84, Broadband Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (BBCEAS) (2 Combining double low line 0.75), solid phase micro extraction (SPME) (2 Combining double low line 0.89), and a photochemical chamber box modelling calculation (2 Combining double low line 0.79) for GLY measurements. For MGLY measurements, the microfluidic technique showed good agreement with BBCEAS (2 Combining double low line 0.87), SPME (2 Combining double low line 0.76), and the modeling simulation (2 Combining double low line 0.83), FTIR (2 Combining double low line 0.72) but displayed a discrepancy with Proton-Transfer Reaction Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS) with 2 value of 0.39

New Insights into X-ray Binaries

X-ray binaries are excellent laboratories to study collapsed objects. On the one hand, transient X-ray binaries contain the best examples of stellar-mass black holes while persistent X-ray binaries mostly harbour accreting neutron stars. The determination of stellar masses in persistent X-ray binaries is usually hampered by the overwhelming luminosity of the X-ray heated accretion disc. However, the discovery of high-excitation emission lines from the irradiated companion star has opened new routes in the study of compact objects. This paper presents novel techniques which exploits these irradiated lines and summarises the dynamical masses obtained for the two populations of collapsed stars: neutron stars and black holes.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, Invited review to plenary session in "Highlights of Spanish Astrophysics V", Proceedings of the VIII Scientific Meeting of the Spanish Astronomical Society (SEA) held in Santander, 7-11 July, 2008. Edited by J. Gorgas, L. J. Goicoechea, J. I. Gonzalez-Serrano, J. M. Dieg

Exploring and challenging the network of angiogenesis

Angiogenesis is one of the hallmarks of cancer and, as such, one of the alternative general targets for anticancer therapy. Since angiogenesis is a complex process involving a high number of interconnected components, a network approach would be a convenient systemic way to analyse responses to directed drug attacks. Herein we show that, although the angiogenic network is easily broken by short combinations of directed attacks, it still remains essentially functional by keeping the global patterns and local efficiency essentially unaltered after these attacks. This is a clear sign of its high robustness and resilience and stresses the need of directed, combined attacks for an effective blockade of the process. The results of this theoretical study could be relevant for the design of new antiangiogenic therapies and the selection of their targets

Structure–properties relationships in fibre drawing of bioactive phosphate glasses

New bioactive phosphate glasses suitable for continuous fibre production are investigated in this work. The structure of both bulk and fibres from Na2O–CaO–MgO–P2O5 glasses has been studied by means of Raman and 31P and 23Na nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopies, and the structural results have been correlated with the mechanical properties of the fibres and the dissolution rate of the bulk glasses. It has been observed that the mechanical properties of the phosphate glass fibres are influenced by the glass network connectivity, while the dissolution rates are governed by the Qi speciation of the PO4 units. As seen in previous studies, molar volume seems to play an important role in the fragility behaviour of phosphate glasses. Here, a lower molar volume resulting from the increase in the oxygen packing density hinders the cooperative flow of the PO4 units throughout the glass network and, therefore, causes a reduction in the kinetic fragility

L-DOPA increases slow-wave sleep duration and selectively modulates memory persistence in older adults

INTRODUCTION: Millions of people worldwide take medications such as L-DOPA that increase dopamine to treat Parkinson's disease. Yet, we do not fully understand how L-DOPA affects sleep and memory. Our earlier research in Parkinson's disease revealed that the timing of L-DOPA relative to sleep affects dopamine's impact on long-term memory. Dopamine projections between the midbrain and hippocampus potentially support memory processes during slow wave sleep. In this study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that L-DOPA enhances memory consolidation by modulating NREM sleep. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled crossover trial with healthy older adults (65-79 years, n = 35). Participants first learned a word list and were then administered long-acting L-DOPA (or placebo) before a full night of sleep. Before sleeping, a proportion of the words were re-exposed using a recognition test to strengthen memory. L-DOPA was active during sleep and the practice-recognition test, but not during initial learning. RESULTS: The single dose of L-DOPA increased total slow-wave sleep duration by approximately 11% compared to placebo, while also increasing spindle amplitudes around slow oscillation peaks and around 1-4 Hz NREM spectral power. However, behaviourally, L-DOPA worsened memory of words presented only once compared to re-exposed words. The coupling of spindles to slow oscillation peaks correlated with these differential effects on weaker and stronger memories. To gauge whether L-DOPA affects encoding or retrieval of information in addition to consolidation, we conducted a second experiment targeting L-DOPA only to initial encoding or retrieval and found no behavioural effects. DISCUSSION: Our results demonstrate that L-DOPA augments slow wave sleep in elderly, perhaps tuning coordinated network activity and impacting the selection of information for long-term storage. The pharmaceutical modification of slow-wave sleep and long-term memory may have clinical implications. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Eudract number: 2015-002027-26; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN90897064, ISRCTN90897064

Vanishing native American dog lineages

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dogs were an important element in many native American cultures at the time Europeans arrived. Although previous ancient DNA studies revealed the existence of unique native American mitochondrial sequences, these have not been found in modern dogs, mainly purebred, studied so far.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified many previously undescribed mitochondrial control region sequences in 400 dogs from rural and isolated areas as well as street dogs from across the Americas. However, sequences of native American origin proved to be exceedingly rare, and we estimate that the native population contributed only a minor fraction of the gene pool that constitutes the modern population.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The high number of previously unidentified haplotypes in our sample suggests that a lot of unsampled genetic variation exists in non-breed dogs. Our results also suggest that the arrival of European colonists to the Americas may have led to an extensive replacement of the native American dog population by the dogs of the invaders.</p