CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting

Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called "community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition, our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201

Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Threat-sensitive anti-predator defence in precocial wader, the northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus

Birds exhibit various forms of anti-predator behaviours to avoid reproductive failure, with mobbing—observation, approach and usually harassment of a predator—being one of the most commonly observed. Here, we investigate patterns of temporal variation in the mobbing response exhibited by a precocial species, the northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus). We test whether brood age and self-reliance, or the perceived risk posed by various predators, affect mobbing response of lapwings. We quantified aggressive interactions between lapwings and their natural avian predators and used generalized additive models to test how timing and predator species identity are related to the mobbing response of lapwings. Lapwings diversified mobbing response within the breeding season and depending on predator species. Raven Corvus corax, hooded crow Corvus cornix and harriers evoked the strongest response, while common buzzard Buteo buteo, white stork Ciconia ciconia, black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus and rook Corvus frugilegus were less frequently attacked. Lapwings increased their mobbing response against raven, common buzzard, white stork and rook throughout the breeding season, while defence against hooded crow, harriers and black-headed gull did not exhibit clear temporal patterns. Mobbing behaviour of lapwings apparently constitutes a flexible anti-predator strategy. The anti-predator response depends on predator species, which may suggest that lapwings distinguish between predator types and match mobbing response to the perceived hazard at different stages of the breeding cycle. We conclude that a single species may exhibit various patterns of temporal variation in anti-predator defence, which may correspond with various hypotheses derived from parental investment theory

Perceived and objective neighborhood support for outside of school physical activity in South African children.

The neighborhood environment has the potential to influence children's participation in physical activity. However, children's outdoor play is controlled by parents to a great extent. This study aimed to investigate whether parents' perceptions of the neighborhood environment and the objectively measured neighborhood environment were associated with children's moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) outside of school hours; and to determine if these perceptions and objective measures of the neighborhood environment differ between high and low socio-economic status (SES) groups.In total, 258 parents of 9-11 year-old children, recruited from the South African sample of the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment (ISCOLE), completed a questionnaire concerning the family and neighborhood environment. Objective measures of the environment were also obtained using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Children wore an Actigraph (GT3X+) accelerometer for 7 days to measure levels of MVPA. Multilevel regression models were used to determine the association between the neighborhood environment and MVPA out of school hours.Parents' perceptions of the neighborhood physical activity facilities were positively associated with children's MVPA before school (β = 1.50 ± 0.51, p = 0.003). Objective measures of neighborhood safety and traffic risk were associated with children's after-school MVPA (β = -2.72 ± 1.35, p = 0.044 and β = -2.63 ± 1.26, p = 0.038, respectively). These associations were significant in the low SES group (β = -3.38 ± 1.65, p = 0.040 and β = -3.76 ± 1.61, p = 0.020, respectively), but unrelated to MVPA in the high SES group.This study found that several of the objective measures of the neighborhood environment were significantly associated with children's outside-of-school MVPA, while most of the parents' perceptions of the neighborhood environment were unrelated

Establishing a library of resources to help people understand key concepts in assessing treatment claims—The “Critical thinking and Appraisal Resource Library” (CARL)

Background People are frequently confronted with untrustworthy claims about the effects of treatments. Uncritical acceptance of these claims can lead to poor, and sometimes dangerous, treatment decisions, and wasted time and money. Resources to help people learn to think critically about treatment claims are scarce, and they are widely scattered. Furthermore, very few learning-resources have been assessed to see if they improve knowledge and behavior. Objectives Our objectives were to develop the Critical thinking and Appraisal Resource Library (CARL). This library was to be in the form of a database containing learning resources for those who are responsible for encouraging critical thinking about treatment claims, and was to be made available online. We wished to include resources for groups we identified as ‘intermediaries’ of knowledge, i.e. teachers of schoolchildren, undergraduates and graduates, for example those teaching evidence-based medicine, or those communicating treatment claims to the public. In selecting resources, we wished to draw particular attention to those resources that had been formally evaluated, for example, by the creators of the resource or independent research groups. Methods CARL was populated with learning-resources identified from a variety of sources—two previously developed but unmaintained inventories; systematic reviews of learning-interventions; online and database searches; and recommendations by members of the project group and its advisors. The learning-resources in CARL were organised by ‘Key Concepts’ needed to judge the trustworthiness of treatment claims, and were made available online by the James Lind Initiative in Testing Treatments interactive (TTi) English (www.testingtreatments.org/category/learning-resources).TTi English also incorporated the database of Key Concepts and the Claim Evaluation Tools developed through the Informed Healthcare Choices (IHC) project (informedhealthchoices.org). Results We have created a database of resources called CARL, which currently contains over 500 open-access learning-resources in a variety of formats: text, audio, video, webpages, cartoons, and lesson materials. These are aimed primarily at ‘Intermediaries’, that is, ‘teachers’, ‘communicators’, ‘advisors’, ‘researchers’, as well as for independent ‘learners’. The resources included in CARL are currently accessible at www.testingtreatments.org/category/learning-resources Conclusions We hope that ready access to CARL will help to promote the critical thinking about treatment claims, needed to help improve healthcare choices

Tracking of dietary intakes in early childhood : the Melbourne InFANT program

Background/Objectives: The objectives of the present study were to describe food and nutrient intakes in children aged 9 and 18 months, and to assess tracking of intakes between these two ages.Subjects/Methods: Participants were 177 children of first-time mothers from the control arm of the Melbourne Infant Feeding Activity and Nutrition Trial (InFANT) Program. Dietary intake was collected at 9 and 18 months using three 24&thinsp;h diet recalls. Tracking was assessed for food and nutrient intakes using logistic regression analysis and estimating partial correlation coefficients, respectively.Results: Although overall nutrient intakes estimated in this study did not indicate a particular risk of nutrient deficiency, our findings suggest that consumption of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods occurred as early as 9 months of age, with some of these foods tracking highly over the weaning period. Intakes of healthier foods such as fruits, vegetables, dairy products, eggs, fish and water were also relatively stable over this transition from infancy to toddlerhood, along with moderate tracking for riboflavin, iodine, fibre, calcium and iron. Tracking was low but close to &rho;=0.3 for zinc, magnesium and potassium intakes.Conclusions: The tracking of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods has important implications for public health, given the development of early eating behaviours is likely to be modifiable. At this stage of life, dietary intakes are largely influenced by the foods parents provide, parental feeding practices and modelling. This study supports the importance of promoting healthy dietary trajectories from infancy.<br /

Research on information systems failures and successes: Status update and future directions

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10796-014-9500-yInformation systems success and failure are among the most prominent streams in IS research. Explanations of why some IS fulfill their expectations, whereas others fail, are complex and multi-factorial. Despite the efforts to understand the underlying factors, the IS failure rate remains stubbornly high. A Panel session was held at the IFIP Working Group 8.6 conference in Bangalore in 2013 which forms the subject of this Special Issue. Its aim was to reflect on the need for new perspectives and research directions, to provide insights and further guidance for managers on factors enabling IS success and avoiding IS failure. Several key issues emerged, such as the need to study problems from multiple perspectives, to move beyond narrow considerations of the IT artifact, and to venture into underexplored organizational contexts, such as the public sector. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Representing Semantified Biological Assays in the Open Research Knowledge Graph

In the biotechnology and biomedical domains, recent text mining efforts advocate for machine-interpretable, and preferably, semantified, documentation formats of laboratory processes. This includes wet-lab protocols, (in)organic materials synthesis reactions, genetic manipulations and procedures for faster computer-mediated analysis and predictions. Herein, we present our work on the representation of semantified bioassays in the Open Research Knowledge Graph (ORKG). In particular, we describe a semantification system work-in-progress to generate, automatically and quickly, the critical semantified bioassay data mass needed to foster a consistent user audience to adopt the ORKG for recording their bioassays and facilitate the organisation of research, according to FAIR principles.Comment: In Proceedings of 'The 22nd International Conference on Asia-Pacific Digital Libraries

'Let's make lots of money': the determinants of performance in the recorded music sector

This research analyzes the performance of 467 record labels in eight European countries over a period of 13 years (2003-2015). The main goal is to explain a relative measure of profitability in terms of observed variables, although the nature of the dataset also allows us to include non-observed firm and country effects. To this end alternative models are estimated and three main research questions are tested, namely: (1) the effect of the dual structure of the recorded music market, in which a competitive segment and an oligopoly coexist; (2) the extent and source of the volatility of profits in record labels; and (3) the nonlinear impact of size on performance

1H, 15N, and 13C chemical shift assignments of neuronal calcium sensor-1 homolog from fission yeast

The neuronal calcium sensor (NCS) proteins regulate signal transduction processes and are highly conserved from yeast to humans. We report complete NMR chemical shift assignments of the NCS homolog from fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces pombe), referred to in this study as Ncs1p. (BMRB no. 16446)