Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Neurovisceral phenotypes in the expression of psychiatric symptoms

This review explores the proposal that vulnerability to psychological symptoms, particularly anxiety, originates in constitutional differences in the control of bodily state, exemplified by a set of conditions that include Joint Hypermobility, Postural Tachycardia Syndrome and Vasovagal Syncope. Research is revealing how brainbody mechanisms underlie individual differences in psychophysiological reactivity that can be important for predicting, stratifying and treating individuals with anxiety disorders and related conditions. One common constitutional difference is Joint Hypermobility, in which there is an increased range of joint movement as a result of a variant of collagen. Joint hypermobility is over-represented in people with anxiety, mood and neurodevelopmental disorders. It is also linked to stress-sensitive medical conditions such as irritable bowel syndrome, chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia. Structural differences in 'emotional' brain regions are reported in hypermobile individuals, and many people with joint hypermobility manifest autonomic abnormalities, typically Postural Tachycardia Syndrome. Enhanced heart rate reactivity during postural change and as recently recognised factors causing vasodilatation (as noted post prandially, post exertion and with heat) is characteristic of Postural Tachycardia Syndrome, and there is a phenomenological overlap with anxiety disorders, which may be partially accounted for by exaggerated neural reactivity within ventromedial prefrontal cortex. People who experience Vasovagal Syncope, a heritable tendency to fainting induced by emotional challenges (and needle/blood phobia), are also more vulnerable to anxiety disorders. Neuroimaging implicates brainstem differences in vulnerability to faints, yet the structural integrity of the caudate nucleus appears important for the control of fainting frequency in relation to parasympathetic tone and anxiety. Together there is clinical and neuroanatomical evidence to show that common constitutional differences affecting autonomic responsivity are linked to psychiatric symptoms, notably anxiety

Oil hydrocarbon degradation by Caspian Sea microbial communities

The Caspian Sea, which is the largest landlocked body of water on the planet, receives substantial annual hydrocarbon input from anthropogenic sources (e.g., industry, agriculture, oil exploration, and extraction) and natural sources (e.g., mud volcanoes and oil seeps). The Caspian Sea also receives substantial amounts of runoff from agricultural and municipal sources, containing nutrients that have caused eutrophication and subsequent hypoxia in the deep, cold waters. The effect of decreasing oxygen saturation and cold temperatures on oil hydrocarbon biodegradation by a microbial community is not well characterized. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of oxic and anoxic conditions on oil hydrocarbon biodegradation at cold temperatures by microbial communities derived from the Caspian Sea. Water samples were collected from the Caspian Sea for study in experimental microcosms. Major taxonomic orders observed in the ambient water samples included Flavobacteriales, Actinomycetales, and Oceanospirillales. Microcosms were inoculated with microbial communities from the deepest waters and amended with oil hydrocarbons for 17 days. Hydrocarbon degradation and shifts in microbial community structure were measured. Surprisingly, oil hydrocarbon biodegradation under anoxic conditions exceeded that under oxic conditions; this was particularly evident in the degradation of aromatic hydrocarbons. Important microbial taxa associated with the anoxic microcosms included known oil degraders such as Oceanospirillaceae. This study provides knowledge about the ambient community structure of the Caspian Sea, which serves as an important reference point for future studies. Furthermore, this may be the first report in which anaerobic biodegradation of oil hydrocarbons exceeds aerobic biodegradation

Derivation of consistent hard rock (1000<Vs<3000 m/s) GMPEs from surface and down-hole recordings: Analysis of KiK-net data

A key component in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of ground motion for hard rock sites, either for applications to installations built on this site category, or as an input motion for site response computation. Empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the traditional basis for estimating ground motion while VS30 is the basis to account for site conditions. As current GMPEs are poorly constrained for VS30 larger than 1000 m/s, the presently used approach for estimating hazard on hard rock sites consists of “host-to-target” adjustment techniques based on VS30 and κ0 values. The present study investigates alternative methods on the basis of a KiK-net dataset corresponding to stiff and rocky sites with 500 < VS30 < 1350 m/s. The existence of sensor pairs (one at the surface and one in depth) and the availability of P- and S-wave velocity profiles allow deriving two “virtual” datasets associated to outcropping hard rock sites with VS in the range [1000, 3000] m/s with two independent corrections: 1/down-hole recordings modified from within motion to outcropping motion with a depth correction factor, 2/surface recordings deconvolved from their specific site response derived through 1D simulation. GMPEs with simple functional forms are then developed, including a VS30 site term. They lead to consistent and robust hard-rock motion estimates, which prove to be significantly lower than host-to-target adjustment predictions. The difference can reach a factor up to 3–4 beyond 5 Hz for very hard-rock, but decreases for decreasing frequency until vanishing below 2 Hz

Understanding single-station ground motion variability and uncertainty (sigma) – Lessons learnt from EUROSEISTEST

Accelerometric data from the well-studied valley EUROSEISTEST are used to investigate ground motion uncertainty and variability. We define a simple local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and investigate changes in standard deviation (σ) and its components, the between-event variability (τ) and within-event variability (φ). Improving seismological metadata significantly reduces τ (30-50%), which in turn reduces the total σ. Improving site information reduces the systematic site-to-site variability, φS2S (20-30%), in turn reducing φ, and ultimately, σ. Our values of standard deviations are lower than global values from literature, and closer to path-specific than site-specific values. However, our data have insufficient azimuthal coverage for single-path analysis. Certain stations have higher ground-motion variability, possibly due to topography, basin edge or downgoing wave effects. Sensitivity checks show that 3 recordings per event is a sufficient data selection criterion, however, one of the dataset’s advantages is the large number of recordings per station (9-90) that yields good site term estimates. We examine uncertainty components binning our data with magnitude from 0.01 to 2 s; at smaller magnitudes, τ decreases and φSS increases, possibly due to κ and source-site trade-offs Finally, we investigate the alternative approach of computing φSS using existing GMPEs instead of creating an ad hoc local GMPE. This is important where data are insufficient to create one, or when site-specific PSHA is performed. We show that global GMPEs may still capture φSS, provided that: 1. the magnitude scaling errors are accommodated by the event terms; 2. there are no distance scaling errors (use of a regionally applicable model). Site terms (φS2S) computed by different global GMPEs (using different site-proxies) vary significantly, especially for hard-rock sites. This indicates that GMPEs may be poorly constrained where they are sometimes most needed, i.e. for hard rock

The contributions of muscarinic receptors and changes in plasma aldosterone levels to the anti-hypertensive effect of Tulbaghia violacea

Background: Tulbaghia violacea Harv. (Alliaceae) is used to treat various ailments, including hypertension (HTN) in South Africa. This study aims to evaluate the contributions of muscarinic receptors and changes in plasma aldosterone levels to its anti-hypertensive effect. Methods: In the acute experiments, methanol leaf extracts (MLE) of T. violacea (30–120 mg/kg), muscarine (0.16 -10 μg/kg), and atropine (0.02 - 20.48 mg/kg), and/or the vehicle (dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) and normal saline (NS)) were respectively and randomly administered intravenously in a group of spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) weighing 300 to 350 g and aged less than 5 months. Subsequently, T. violacea (60 mg/kg) or muscarine (2.5 μg/kg) was infused into eight SHRs, 20 min after atropine (5.12 mg/kg) pre-treatment. In the chronic (21 days) experiments, the SHRs were randomly divided into three groups, and given the vehicle (0.2 ml/day of DMSO and NS), T. violacea (60 mg/kg/day) and captopril (10 mg/kg/day) respectively into the peritoneum, to investigate their effects on blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and plasma aldosterone levels. Systolic BP and HR were measured using tail-cuff plethysmography during the intervention. BP and HR were measured via a pressure transducer connecting the femoral artery and the Powerlab at the end of each intervention in the acute experiment; and on day 22 in the chronic experiment. Results: In the acute experiments, T. violacea, muscarine, and atropine significantly (p < 0.05) reduced BP dose-dependently. T. violacea and muscarine produced dose-dependent decreases in HR, while the effect of atropine on HR varied. After atropine pre-treatment, dose-dependent increases in BP and HR were observed with T. violacea; while the BP and HR effects of muscarine were nullified. In the chronic experiments, the T. violaceatreated and captropril-treated groups had signicantly lower levels of aldosterone in plasma when compared to vehicle-treated group. Compared to the vehicle-treated group, significant reduction in BP was only seen in the captopril-treated group; while no difference in HR was observed among the groups. Conclusion: The results obtained in this study suggest that stimulation of the muscarinic receptors and a reduction in plasma aldosterone levels contribute to the anti-hypertesive effect of T. violacea.IS

Unraveling the influence of microbial Necromass on subsurface microbiomes: metabolite utilization and community dynamics

The role of microbial necromass (nonliving microbial biomass), a significant component of belowground organic carbon, in nutrient cycling and its impact on the dynamics of microbial communities in subsurface systems remains poorly understood. It is currently unclear whether necromass metabolites from various microbes are different, whether certain groups of metabolites are preferentially utilized over others, or whether different microbial species respond to various necromass metabolites. In this study, we aimed to fill these knowledge gaps by designing enrichments with necromass as the sole nutrient source for subsurface microbial communities. We used the soluble fraction of necromass from bacterial isolates belonging to Arthrobacter, Agrobacterium, and Pseudomonas genera, and our results indicate that metabolite composition of necromass varied slightly across different strains but generally included amino acids, organic acids, and nucleic acid constituents. Arthrobacter-derived necromass appeared more recalcitrant. Necromass metabolites enriched diverse microbial genera, particularly Massilia sp. responded quickly regardless of the necromass source. Despite differences in necromass utilization, microbial community composition converged rapidly over time across the three different necromass amendments. Uracil, xanthine, valine, and phosphate-containing isomers were generally depleted over time, indicating microbial assimilation for maintenance and growth. However, numerous easily assimilable metabolites were not significantly depleted, suggesting efficient necromass recycling and the potential for necromass stabilization in systems. This study highlights the dynamic interactions between microbial necromass metabolites and subsurface microbial communities, revealing both selective utilization and rapid community and necromass convergence regardless of the necromass source

Can the intake of antiparasitic secondary metabolites explain the low prevalence of hemoparasites among wild Psittaciformes?

Background: Parasites can exert selection pressure on their hosts through effects on survival, on reproductive success, on sexually selected ornament, with important ecological and evolutionary consequences, such as changes in population viability. Consequently, hemoparasites have become the focus of recent avian studies. Infection varies significantly among taxa. Various factors might explain the differences in infection among taxa, including habitat, climate, host density, the presence of vectors, life history and immune defence. Feeding behaviour can also be relevant both through increased exposure to vectors and consumption of secondary metabolites with preventative or therapeutic effects that can reduce parasite load. However, the latter has been little investigated. Psittaciformes (parrots and cockatoos) are a good model to investigate these topics, as they are known to use biological control against ectoparasites and to feed on toxic food. We investigated the presence of avian malaria parasites (Plasmodium), intracellular haemosporidians (Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon), unicellular flagellate protozoans (Trypanosoma) and microfilariae in 19 Psittaciformes species from a range of habitats in the Indo-Malayan, Australasian and Neotropical regions. We gathered additional data on hemoparasites in wild Psittaciformes from the literature. We considered factors that may control the presence of hemoparasites in the Psittaciformes, compiling information on diet, habitat, and climate. Furthermore, we investigated the role of diet in providing antiparasitic secondary metabolites that could be used as self-medication to reduce parasite load. Results: We found hemoparasites in only two of 19 species sampled. Among them, all species that consume at least one food item known for its secondary metabolites with antimalarial, trypanocidal or general antiparasitic properties, were free from hemoparasites. In contrast, the infected parrots do not consume food items with antimalarial or even general antiparasitic properties. We found that the two infected species in this study consumed omnivorous diets. When we combined our data with data from studies previously investigating blood parasites in wild parrots, the positive relationship between omnivorous diets and hemoparasite infestation was confirmed. Individuals from open habitats were less infected than those from forests. Conclusions: The consumption of food items known for their secondary metabolites with antimalarial, trypanocidal or general antiparasitic properties, as well as the higher proportion of infected species among omnivorous parrots, could explain the low prevalence of hemoparasites reported in many vertebrates

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability