Characterisation of subglacial water using a constrained transdimensional Bayesian transient electromagnetic inversion

Subglacial water modulates glacier-bed friction and therefore is of fundamental importance when characterising the dynamics of ice masses. The state of subglacial pore water, whether liquid or frozen, is associated with differences in electrical resistivity that span several orders of magnitude; hence, liquid water can be inferred from electrical resistivity depth profiles. Such profiles can be obtained from inversions of transient (time-domain) electromagnetic (TEM) soundings, but these are often non-unique. Here, we adapt an existing Bayesian transdimensional algorithm (Multimodal Layered Transdimensional Inversion – MuLTI) to the inversion of TEM data using independent depth constraints to provide statistical properties and uncertainty analysis of the resistivity profile with depth. The method was applied to ground-based TEM data acquired on the terminus of the Norwegian glacier, Midtdalsbreen, with depth constraints provided by co-located ground-penetrating radar data. Our inversion shows that the glacier bed is directly underlain by material of resistivity 102 Ωm ± 1000 %, with thickness 5–40 m, in turn underlain by a highly conductive basement (100 Ωm ± 15 %). High-resistivity material, 5×104 Ωm ± 25 %, exists at the front of the glacier. All uncertainties are defined by the interquartile range of the posterior resistivity distribution. Combining these resistivity profiles with those from co-located seismic shear-wave velocity inversions to further reduce ambiguity in the hydrogeological interpretation of the subsurface, we propose a new 3-D interpretation in which the Midtdalsbreen subglacial material is partitioned into partially frozen sediment, frozen sediment/permafrost and weathered/fractured bedrock with saline water

Order of Magnitude Smaller Limit on the Electric Dipole Moment of the Electron

The Standard Model of particle physics is known to be incomplete. Extensions to the Standard Model, such as weak-scale supersymmetry, posit the existence of new particles and interactions that are asymmetric under time reversal (T) and nearly always predict a small yet potentially measurable electron electric dipole moment (EDM), d_e, in the range of 10^(−27) to 10^(−30) e·cm. The EDM is an asymmetric charge distribution along the electron spin (S) that is also asymmetric under T. Using the polar molecule thorium monoxide, we measured d_e = (–2.1±3.7_(stat)±2.5_(syst)) × 10−29 e·cm. This corresponds to an upper limit of ❘d_e❘ < 8.7 × 10^(−29) e·cm with 90% confidence, an order of magnitude improvement in sensitivity relative to the previous best limit. Our result constrains T-violating physics at the TeV energy scale

Multimodal Layered Transdimensional Inversion of Seismic Dispersion Curves With Depth Constraints

MuLTI (Multimodal Layered Transdimensional Inversion) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of Bayesian inversion for the probability distribution of shear wave velocity (Vs) as a function of depth. Based on Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave methods, it requires as data (i) a Rayleigh-wave dispersion curve and (ii) additional layer depth constraints, the latter we show significantly improve resolution compared to conventional unconstrained inversions. Such depth constraints may be drawn from any source (e.g., boreholes, complementary geophysical data) provided they also represent a seismic interface. We apply MuLTI to a Norwegian glacier, Midtdalsbreen, in which ground-penetrating radar was used to constrain internal layers of snow, ice, and subglacial sediments, with transitions at 2 and 25.5 m, and whose Vs is assumed to be in the range 500–1,700, 1,700–1,950, and 200–2,800 m/s, respectively. Synthetic modeling demonstrates that MuLTI recovers the true model of Vs variation with depth. Significantly, compared to inversions without depth constraints, in this synthetic case MuLTI not only reduces by about a factor of 10 the error between the true and the best fitting model, but also reduces by a factor of 2 the vertically averaged spread of the distribution of Vs based on the 95% credible intervals. We further show that using frequencies above about 100 Hz lead to unconverged solutions due to mode ambiguities associated with fine spatial structures. For our acquired data on Midtdalsbreen, we use 14-100 Hz data for which MuLTI produces a large-scale converged inversion

Global distribution of two fungal pathogens threatening endangered sea turtles

This work was supported by grants of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain (CGL2009-10032, CGL2012-32934). J.M.S.R was supported by PhD fellowship of the CSIC (JAEPre 0901804). The Natural Environment Research Council and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council supported P.V.W. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Thanks Machalilla National Park in Ecuador, Pacuare Nature Reserve in Costa Rica, Foundations Natura 2000 in Cape Verde and Equilibrio Azul in Ecuador, Dr. Jesus Muñoz, Dr. Ian Bell, Dr. Juan Patiño for help and technical support during samplingPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Improving the use of research evidence in guideline development: 9. Grading evidence and recommendations

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO), like many other organisations around the world, has recognised the need to use more rigorous processes to ensure that health care recommendations are informed by the best available research evidence. This is the ninth of a series of 16 reviews that have been prepared as background for advice from the WHO Advisory Committee on Health Research to WHO on how to achieve this. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed the literature on grading evidence and recommendations in guidelines. METHODS: We searched PubMed and three databases of methodological studies for existing systematic reviews and relevant methodological research. We did not conduct a full systematic review ourselves. Our conclusions are based on the available evidence, consideration of what WHO and other organisations are doing and logical arguments. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS: Should WHO grade the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations? • Users of recommendations need to know how much confidence they can place in the underlying evidence and the recommendations. The degree of confidence depends on a number of factors and requires complex judgments. These judgments should be made explicitly in WHO recommendations. A systematic and explicit approach to making judgments about the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations can help to prevent errors, facilitate critical appraisal of these judgments, and can help to improve communication of this information. What criteria should be used to grade evidence and recommendations? • Both the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations should be graded. The criteria used to grade the strength of recommendations should include the quality of the underlying evidence, but should not be limited to that. • The approach to grading should be one that has wide international support and is suitable for a wide range of different types of recommendations. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, which is currently suggested in the Guidelines for WHO Guidelines, is being used by an increasing number of other organizations internationally. It should be used more consistently by WHO. Further developments of this approach should ensure its wide applicability. Should WHO use the same grading system for all of its recommendations? • Although there are arguments for and against using the same grading system across a wide range of different types of recommendations, WHO should use a uniform grading system to prevent confusion for developers and users of recommendations

The communication of a secondary care diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis to primary care practitioners: a population-based study

Background Autoimmune Hepatitis is a chronic liver disease which affects young people and can result in liver failure leading to death or transplantation yet there is a lack of information on the incidence and prevalence of this disease and its natural history in the UK. A means of obtaining this information is via the use of clinical databases formed of electronic primary care records. How reliably the diagnosis is coded in such records is however unknown. The aim of this study therefore was to assess the proportion of consultant hepatologist diagnoses of Autoimmune Hepatitis which were accurately recorded in General Practice computerised records. Methods Our study population were patients with Autoimmune Hepatitis diagnosed by consultant hepatologists in the Queens Medical Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals (UK) between 2004 and 2009. We wrote to the general practitioners of these patients to obtain the percentage of patients who had a valid READ code specific for Autoimmune Hepatitis. Results We examined the electronic records of 51 patients who had biopsy evidence and a possible diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis. Forty two of these patients had a confirmed clinical diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis by a consultant hepatologist: we contacted the General Practitioners of these patients obtaining a response rate of 90.5% (39/42 GPs). 37/39 of these GPs responded with coding information and 89% of these patients (33/37) used Read code J638.00 (Autoimmune Hepatitis) to record a diagnosis. Conclusions The diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis made by a Consultant Hepatologist is accurately communicated to and electronically recorded by primary care in the UK. As a large proportion of cases of Autoimmune Hepatitis are recorded in primary care, this minimises the risk of introducing selection bias and therefore selecting cases using these data will be a valid method of conducting population based studies on Autoimmune Hepatitis

Early recognition of coeliac disease through community pharmacies: A proof of concept study

Setting: 15 community pharmacies in the UK Objective: Proof of concept study to test the use of community pharmacies for active case finding of patients with coeliac disease. Method: Customers accessing over-the counter and prescription medicines indicated in the treatment of possible symptoms of coeliac disease over a six month period were offered a free point of care test. All patients were given advice regarding the test results and those who tested positive were advised to make an appointment with their general practitioner. Patients and pharmacists involved in service provision were asked to complete a satisfaction survey. Pharmacists were additionally invited to undertake interviews to better understand their views on the service. Main outcome measures: Feasibility of service, acceptability to stakeholders and proportion testing positive for coeliac disease. Results: Of the 551 individuals tested, 52 (9.4%) tested positive. 277 (50.3%) were tested for accessing irritable bowel syndrome treatment, 142 (25.8%) due to presenting for diarrhoea. The proportion of patients testing positive with different symptoms or for different treatments were similar. Of 43 customers who returned the satisfaction survey, all would recommend the service to others, believing the community pharmacy to be a suitable location. Community pharmacists believed that it enabled them to improve relationships with their customers and that medical practices were receptive to the service. Conclusion: This proof of concept study has shown that community pharmacies using a point of care test can effectively recognise and refer patients for confirmatory coeliac disease testing with high levels of customer and service provider satisfaction

Subglacial sediment distribution from constrained seismic inversion, using MuLTI software: Examples from Midtdalsbreen, Norway

Fast ice flow is associated with the deformation of subglacial sediment. Seismic shear velocities, Vs, increase with the rigidity of material and hence can be used to distinguish soft sediment from hard bedrock substrates. Depth profiles of Vs can be obtained from inversions of Rayleigh wave dispersion curves, from passive or active-sources, but these can be highly ambiguous and lack depth sensitivity. Our novel Bayesian transdimensional algorithm, MuLTI, circumvents these issues by adding independent depth constraints to the inversion, also allowing comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We apply MuLTI to the inversion of a Rayleigh wave dataset, acquired using active-source (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) techniques, to characterise sediment distribution beneath the frontal margin of Midtdalsbreen, an outlet of Norway's Hardangerjøkulen ice cap. Ice thickness (0–20 m) is constrained using co-located GPR data. Outputs from MuLTI suggest that partly-frozen sediment (Vs 500–1000 m s−1), overlying bedrock (Vs 2000–2500 m s−1), is present in patches with a thickness of ~4 m, although this approaches the resolvable limit of our Rayleigh wave frequencies (14–100 Hz). Uncertainties immediately beneath the glacier bed are <280 m s−1, implying that MuLTI cannot only distinguish bedrock and sediment substrates but does so with an accuracy sufficient for resolving variations in sediment properties

Multiscale correlative tomography: an investigation of creep cavitation in 316 stainless steel

Creep cavitation in an ex-service nuclear steam header Type 316 stainless steel sample is investigated through a multiscale tomography workflow spanning eight orders of magnitude, combining X-ray computed tomography (CT), plasma focused ion beam (FIB) scanning electron microscope (SEM) imaging and scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) tomography. Guided by microscale X-ray CT, nanoscale X-ray CT is used to investigate the size and morphology of cavities at a triple point of grain boundaries. In order to understand the factors affecting the extent of cavitation, the orientation and crystallographic misorientation of each boundary is characterised using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Additionally, in order to better understand boundary phase growth, the chemistry of a single boundary and its associated secondary phase precipitates is probed through STEM energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) tomography. The difference in cavitation of the three grain boundaries investigated suggests that the orientation of grain boundaries with respect to the direction of principal stress is important in the promotion of cavity formation