Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations

Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than 20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic

Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images

The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how this drag affects the result of the F\Phi and HM fitting methods. A simple drag model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of propagation of up to 15 deg and 30 deg for the F\Phi and HM fitting methods, respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is affected by the acceleration more greatly than the F\Phi fitting method. Overall, we find that both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for fast CMEs propagating beyond 90 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be better reproduced by the F\Phi due to the cancellation of two errors: neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.Comment: Solar Physics, Online First, 17 page

Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts

The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g. the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al. (2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the 1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics

de Sitter String Vacua from Kahler Uplifting

We present a new way to construct de Sitter vacua in type IIB flux compactifications, in which the interplay of the leading perturbative and non-perturbative effects stabilize all moduli in dS vacua at parametrically large volume. Here, the closed string fluxes fix the dilaton and the complex structure moduli while the universal leading perturbative quantum correction to the Kahler potential together with non-perturbative effects stabilize the volume Kahler modulus in a dS_4-vacuum. Since the quantum correction is known exactly and can be kept parametrically small, this construction leads to calculable and explicitly realized de Sitter vacua of string theory with spontaneously broken supersymmetry.Comment: 1+21 pages, 5 figures, LaTeX, uses JHEP3 class, v3: conforms with published versio

Two-dimensional superstrings and the supersymmetric matrix model

We present evidence that the supersymmetric matrix model of Marinari and Parisi represents the world-line theory of N unstable D-particles in type II superstring theory in two dimensions. This identification suggests that the matrix model gives a holographic description of superstrings in a two-dimensional black hole geometry.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures; v2: corrected eqn 4.6; v3: corrected appendices and discussion of vacua, added ref

Heliospheric Observations of STEREO-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in 2008--2010: Lessons for Future Observations of Earth-Directed CMEs

We present a study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which impacted one of the STEREO spacecraft between January 2008 and early 2010. We focus our study on 20 CMEs which were observed remotely by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard the other STEREO spacecraft up to large heliocentric distances. We compare the predictions of the Fixed-Phi and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods, which only differ by the assumed geometry of the CME. It is possible to use these techniques to determine from remote-sensing observations the CME direction of propagation, arrival time and final speed which are compared to in situ measurements. We find evidence that for large viewing angles, the HM fitting method predicts the CME direction better. However, this may be due to the fact that only wide CMEs can be successfully observed when the CME propagates more than 100 deg from the observing spacecraft. Overall eight CMEs, originating from behind the limb as seen by one of the STEREO spacecraft can be tracked and their arrival time at the other STEREO spacecraft can be successfully predicted. This includes CMEs, such as the events on 4 December 2009 and 9 April 2010, which were viewed 130 deg away from their direction of propagation. Therefore, we predict that some Earth-directed CMEs will be observed by the HIs until early 2013, when the separation between Earth and one of the STEREO spacecraft will be similar to the separation of the two STEREO spacecraft in 2009--2010.Comment: 21 pages, accepted to Solar Physic

The Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone in the Neo-Tethyan suture, western Iran: Zircon U–Pb evidence of late Palaeozoic rifting of northern Gondwana and mid-Jurassic orogenesis

The Zagros Orogen, marking the closure of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean, formed by continental collision beginning in the late Eocene to early Miocene. Collision was preceded by a complicated tectonic history involving Pan-African orogenesis, Late Palaeozoic rifting forming Neo-Tethys, followed by Mesozoic convergence on the ocean\u27s northern margin and ophiolite obduction on its southern margin. The Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone is a metamorphic belt in the Zagros Orogen of Gondwanan provenance. Zircon ages have established Pan-African basement igneous and metamorphic complexes in addition to uncommon late Palaeozoic plutons and abundant Jurassic plutonic rocks. We have determined zircon ages from units in the northwestern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone (Golpaygan region). A sample of quartzite from the June Complex has detrital zircons with U-Pb ages mainly in 800-1050 Ma with a maximum depositional age of 547 ± 32 Ma (latest Neoproterozoic¿earliest Cambrian). A SHRIMP U-Pb zircon age of 336 ± 9 Ma from gabbro in the June Complex indicates a Carboniferous plutonic event that is also recorded in the far northwestern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone. Together with the Permian Hasanrobat Granite near Golpaygan, they all are considered related to rifting marking formation of Neo-Tethys. Scarce detrital zircons from an extensive package of metasedimentary rocks (Hamadan Phyllite) have ages consistent with the Triassic to Early Jurassic age previously determined from fossils. These ages confirm that an orogenic episode affected the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone in the Early to Middle Jurassic (Cimmerian Orogeny). Although the Cimmerian Orogeny in northern Iran reflects late Triassic to Jurassic collision of the Turan platform (southern Eurasia) and the Cimmerian microcontinent, we consider that in the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone a tectonothermal event coeval with the Cimmerian Orogeny resulted from initiation of subduction and closure of rift basins along the northern margin of Neo-Tethys

Volume I. Introduction to DUNE

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and whether protons eventually decay—these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our universe, its current state, and its eventual fate. The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions as it searches for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation, stands ready to capture supernova neutrino bursts, and seeks to observe nucleon decay as a signature of a grand unified theory underlying the standard model. The DUNE far detector technical design report (TDR) describes the DUNE physics program and the technical designs of the single- and dual-phase DUNE liquid argon TPC far detector modules. This TDR is intended to justify the technical choices for the far detector that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. Volume I contains an executive summary that introduces the DUNE science program, the far detector and the strategy for its modular designs, and the organization and management of the Project. The remainder of Volume I provides more detail on the science program that drives the choice of detector technologies and on the technologies themselves. It also introduces the designs for the DUNE near detector and the DUNE computing model, for which DUNE is planning design reports. Volume II of this TDR describes DUNE\u27s physics program in detail. Volume III describes the technical coordination required for the far detector design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure. Volume IV describes the single-phase far detector technology. A planned Volume V will describe the dual-phase technology

The solar particle acceleration radiation and kinetics (SPARK) mission concept

Particle acceleration is a fundamental process arising in many astrophysical objects, including active galactic nuclei, black holes, neutron stars, gamma-ray bursts, accretion disks, solar and stellar coronae, and planetary magnetospheres. Its ubiquity means energetic particles permeate the Universe and influence the conditions for the emergence and continuation of life. In our solar system, the Sun is the most energetic particle accelerator, and its proximity makes it a unique laboratory in which to explore astrophysical particle acceleration. However, despite its importance, the physics underlying solar particle acceleration remain poorly understood. The SPARK mission will reveal new discoveries about particle acceleration through a uniquely powerful and complete combination of γ-ray, X-ray, and EUV imaging and spectroscopy at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions. SPARK’s instruments will provide a step change in observational capability, enabling fundamental breakthroughs in our understanding of solar particle acceleration and the phenomena associated with it, such as the evolution of solar eruptive events. By providing essential diagnostics of the processes that drive the onset and evolution of solar flares and coronal mass ejections, SPARK will elucidate the underlying physics of space weather events that can damage satellites and power grids, disrupt telecommunications and GPS navigation, and endanger astronauts in space. The prediction of such events and the mitigation of their potential impacts are crucial in protecting our terrestrial and space-based infrastructure

Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), far detector technical design report, volume III: DUNE far detector technical coordination

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and whether protons eventually decay—these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our universe, its current state, and its eventual fate. The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions as it searches for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation, stands ready to capture supernova neutrino bursts, and seeks to observe nucleon decay as a signature of a grand unified theory underlying the standard model. The DUNE far detector technical design report (TDR) describes the DUNE physics program and the technical designs of the single- and dual-phase DUNE liquid argon TPC far detector modules. Volume III of this TDR describes how the activities required to design, construct, fabricate, install, and commission the DUNE far detector modules are organized and managed. This volume details the organizational structures that will carry out and/or oversee the planned far detector activities safely, successfully, on time, and on budget. It presents overviews of the facilities, supporting infrastructure, and detectors for context, and it outlines the project-related functions and methodologies used by the DUNE technical coordination organization, focusing on the areas of integration engineering, technical reviews, quality assurance and control, and safety oversight. Because of its more advanced stage of development, functional examples presented in this volume focus primarily on the single-phase (SP) detector module