Coupling methods for multistage sampling

Multistage sampling is commonly used for household surveys when there exists no sampling frame, or when the population is scattered over a wide area. Multistage sampling usually introduces a complex dependence in the selection of the final units, which makes asymptotic results quite difficult to prove. In this work, we consider multistage sampling with simple random without replacement sampling at the first stage, and with an arbitrary sampling design for further stages. We consider coupling methods to link this sampling design to sampling designs where the primary sampling units are selected independently. We first generalize a method introduced by [Magyar Tud. Akad. Mat. Kutat\'{o} Int. K\"{o}zl. 5 (1960) 361-374] to get a coupling with multistage sampling and Bernoulli sampling at the first stage, which leads to a central limit theorem for the Horvitz--Thompson estimator. We then introduce a new coupling method with multistage sampling and simple random with replacement sampling at the first stage. When the first-stage sampling fraction tends to zero, this method is used to prove consistency of a with-replacement bootstrap for simple random without replacement sampling at the first stage, and consistency of bootstrap variance estimators for smooth functions of totals.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1348 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil

The goal of this project is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov switching model. These turning points are the event timing that the leading indicators should anticipate. A dynamic factor model is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation. The leading indicators are designed to serve as practical tools to assist real-time monitoring of monetary policy on a month-to-month basis. Thus, the indicators are built and ranked according to their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The leading indicators are found to be an informative tool for signaling future phases of the inflation cycle out-of-sample, even in real time when only preliminary and unrevised data are available.

When Victims Seek Closure: Forgiveness, Vengeance and the Role of Government

This article discusses the role of victims and their families in the sentencing of criminal defendants, including the emotional and ethical components of victims\u27 desires to achieve justice and closure

The initial fate of an anisotropic JBD universe

The dynamical effects on the scale factors due to the scalar $\phi$-field at the early stages of a supposedly anisotropic Universe expansion in the scalar-tensor cosmology of Jordan-Brans and Dicke is studied. This universe shows an {\sl isotropic} evolution and, depending on the value of the theorie's coupling parameter $\omega$, it can begin from a singularity if $\omega>0$ and after expanding shrink to another one; or, if $\omega <0$ and $-3/2< \omega\leq -4/3$, it can evolve from a flat spatially-infinite state to a non extended singularity; or, if $-4/3 < \omega < 0$, evolve from an extended singularity to a non singular state and, at last, proceed towards a singularity