Roughness and Finite Size Effect in the NYSE Stock-Price Fluctuations

We consider the roughness properties of NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) stock-price fluctuations. The statistical properties of the data are relatively homogeneous within the same day but the large jumps between different days prevent the extension of the analysis to large times. This leads to intrinsic finite size effects which alter the apparent Hurst (H) exponent. We show, by analytical methods, that finite size effects always lead to an enhancement of H. We then consider the effect of fat tails on the analysis of the roughness and show that the finite size effects are strongly enhanced by the fat tails. The non stationarity of the stock price dynamics also enhances the finite size effects which, in principle, can become important even in the asymptotic regime. We then compute the Hurst exponent for a set of stocks of the NYSE and argue that the interpretation of the value of H is highly ambiguous in view of the above results. Finally we propose an alternative determination of the roughness in terms of the fluctuations from moving averages with variable characteristic times. This permits to eliminate most of the previous problems and to characterize the roughness in useful way. In particular this approach corresponds to the automatic elimination of trends at any scale.Comment: 13 pages, 11 fugure

Predicting delay factors when chipping wood at forest roadside landings

Chipping of bulky biomass assortments at roadside landings is a common and costly step in the biomass-to-energy supply chain. This operation normally involves one chipping unit and one or several transport trucks working together for simultaneous chipping and chip transport to a terminal or end user. Reducing the delay factors in these operations is a relevant ambition for lowering supply costs. A method to estimate organizational delay based on: (1) the capacity ratio between the transport and the chipper, (2) the use of buffer storage, and (3) the number of transport units involved is suggested here. Other delays will also be present, and some of these may relate to the working conditions at the landing. A method to set a landing functionality index based on characteristics of the forest landing is also suggested. A total of 14 roadside chipping operations were assessed and the operators were interviewed to address the impact of machinery configuration and landing characteristics on machine utilization. At most sites, the chipper was the more productive part, and the chipper utilization was to a large extent limited by organizational delay. Still the utilization of the transport units varied between 37 and 97%, of which some 36% of the variation was explained by the landing functionality index. Knowledge from the work presented here should be a good starting point for improving biomass supply planning and supply chain configuration.acceptedVersio

Imbibition in Disordered Media

The physics of liquids in porous media gives rise to many interesting phenomena, including imbibition where a viscous fluid displaces a less viscous one. Here we discuss the theoretical and experimental progress made in recent years in this field. The emphasis is on an interfacial description, akin to the focus of a statistical physics approach. Coarse-grained equations of motion have been recently presented in the literature. These contain terms that take into account the pertinent features of imbibition: non-locality and the quenched noise that arises from the random environment, fluctuations of the fluid flow and capillary forces. The theoretical progress has highlighted the presence of intrinsic length-scales that invalidate scale invariance often assumed to be present in kinetic roughening processes such as that of a two-phase boundary in liquid penetration. Another important fact is that the macroscopic fluid flow, the kinetic roughening properties, and the effective noise in the problem are all coupled. Many possible deviations from simple scaling behaviour exist, and we outline the experimental evidence. Finally, prospects for further work, both theoretical and experimental, are discussed.Comment: Review article, to appear in Advances in Physics, 53 pages LaTe

European all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality in the 2017/18 season: should the burden of influenza B be reconsidered?

Objectives Weekly monitoring of European all-cause excess mortality, the EuroMOMO network, observed high excess mortality during the influenza B/Yamagata dominated 2017/18 winter season, especially among elderly. We describe all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality during the season 2017/18 in Europe. Methods Based on weekly reporting of mortality from 24 European countries or sub-national regions, representing 60% of the European population excluding the Russian and Turkish parts of Europe, we estimated age stratified all-cause excess morality using the EuroMOMO model. In addition, age stratified all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated using the FluMOMO algorithm, incorporating influenza activity based on clinical and virological surveillance data, and adjusting for extreme temperatures. Results Excess mortality was mainly attributable to influenza activity from December 2017 to April 2018, but also due to exceptionally low temperatures in February-March 2018. The pattern and extent of mortality excess was similar to the previous A(H3N2) dominated seasons, 2014/15 and 2016/17. The 2017/18 overall all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated to be 25.4 (95%CI 25.0-25.8) per 100,000 population; 118.2 (116.4-119.9) for persons aged 65. Extending to the European population this translates into over-all 152,000 deaths. Conclusions The high mortality among elderly was unexpected in an influenza B dominated season, which commonly are considered to cause mild illness, mainly among children. Even though A(H3N2) also circulated in the 2017/18 season and may have contributed to the excess mortality among the elderly, the common perception of influenza B only having a modest impact on excess mortality in the older population may need to be reconsidered.Peer Reviewe

Immunogenicity of subcutaneous TNF inhibitors and its clinical significance in real-life setting in patients with spondyloarthritis

Key messages Considerable proportion of patients with SpA have been immunized to the subcutaneous anti-TNF drug they are using. Concomitant use of MTX protects from immunization, whereas SASP does not. Patients with SpA using subcutaneous anti-TNF drugs can benefit from monitoring of the drug trough levels. Immunization to biological drugs can lead to decreased efficacy and increased risk of adverse effects. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to assess the extent and significance of immunization to subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) patients in real-life setting. A serum sample was taken 1-2 days before the next drug injection. Drug trough concentrations, anti-drug antibodies (ADAb) and TNF-blocking capacity were measured in 273 patients with axSpA using subcutaneous anti-TNF drugs. The clinical activity of SpA was assessed using the Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and the Maastricht AS Entheses Score (MASES). ADAb were found in 11% of the 273 patients: in 21/99 (21%) of patients who used adalimumab, in 0/83 (0%) of those who used etanercept, in 2/79 (3%) of those who used golimumab and in 6/12 (50%) of those who used certolizumab pegol. Use of methotrexate reduced the risk of formation of ADAb, whereas sulfasalazine did not. Presence of ADAb resulted in decreased drug concentration and reduced TNF-blocking capacity. However, low levels of ADAb had no effect on TNF-blocking capacity and did not correlate with disease activity. The drug trough levels were below the consensus target level in 36% of the patients. High BMI correlated with low drug trough concentration. Patients with low drug trough levels had higher disease activity. The presence of anti-drug antibodies was associated with reduced drug trough levels, and the patients with low drug trough levels had higher disease activity. The drug trough levels were below target level in significant proportion of patients and, thus, measuring the drug concentration and ADAb could help to optimize the treatment in SpA patients.Peer reviewe

Identification of valid housekeeping genes for quantitative RT-PCR analysis of cardiosphere-derived cells preconditioned under hypoxia or with prolyl-4-hydroxylase inhibitors

Infarction irreversibly damages the heart, with formation of an akinetic scar that may lead to heart failure. Endogenous cardiac stem cells (CSCs) are a promising candidate cell source for restoring lost tissue and thereby preventing heart failure. CSCs may be isolated in vitro, via the formation of cardiospheres, to give cardiosphere-derived cells (CDCs). Although qRT-PCR analyses of CDCs have been performed, no justification for the selection of the housekeeping gene has been published. Here, we evaluated the most suitable housekeeping gene for RNA expression analysis in CDCs cultured under normoxia, hypoxia or with prolyl-4-hydroxylase inhibitors (PHDIs), from both neonatal and adult rats, to determine the effects of ageing and different culture conditions on the stability of the housekeeping gene for CDCs. Six candidate housekeeping genes, [glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH), beta-actin (Actb), hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase 1 (HPRT-1), beta-2-microtubulin (β2M), 60S acidic ribosomal protein large P1 (RPLP-1) and TATA box binding protein (Tbp)] were evaluated in this study. Analysis using geNorm and NormFinder revealed that GAPDH was the most constant housekeeping gene among all genes tested under normoxia for both neonatal and adult CDCs, whereas Actb was the most stable housekeeping gene under hypoxia. For the PHDI-treated CDCs, overall, GADPH, Actb and β2M were more consistently expressed, whereas HPRT-1, RPLP-1 and Tbp showed unstable expression. The ranking for β2M, HPRT-1 and RPLP-1 stability was different for neonatal and adult cells, indicating that expression of these genes was age-dependent. Lastly, independent of age or culture conditions, Tbp was the least stable housekeeping gene. In conclusion, a combination of Actb and GADPH gave the most reliable normalization for comparative analyses of gene transcription in neonatal and adult rat CDCs preconditioned by hypoxia or PHDIs

Lack of trade-offs between the male and female sexual functions in the gynodioecious herb Geranium sylvaticum

Resource allocation trade-offs between sexual functions are predicted, but these are usually measured only at the whole plant level. In some gynodioecious species, individuals with partially restored male fertility exist providing an opportunity to investigate whether the costs associated with male fertility restoration are linked to seed production. In this study, we examined whether there is a relationship between the numbers of stamens and seeds produced both at the flower level and at the plant level in the gynodioecious herb Geranium sylvaticum. We individually marked flowers in plants varying in the degree of male sterility in the field and counted the number of seeds produced. There was no significant correlation between the numbers of stamens and seeds produced at the flower level suggesting an absence of resource trade-off between female and male functions. Furthermore, the numbers of stamens and seeds were positively correlated at the plant level. The lack of trade-offs between the two sexual functions in this species indicates that relative sex allocation was not affected by resources within a single season and/or that the male costs were relatively small