Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method, applied in Risk-UE project

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2566-8Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Neotectonics of the SW Iberia margin, Gulf of Cadiz and Alboran Sea: a reassessment including recent structural, seismic and geodetic data

We use a thin-shell approximation for the lithosphere to model the neotectonics of the Gulf of Cadiz, SW Iberia margin and the westernmost Mediterranean, in the eastern segment of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary. In relation to previous neotectonic models in the region, we utilize a better constrained structural map offshore, and the recent GPS measurements over NW Africa and Iberia have been taken into account, together with the seismic strain rate and stress data, to evaluate alternative geodynamic settings proposed for the region. We show that by assuming a relatively simple, two-plate tectonic framework, where Nubia and Eurasia converge NW-SE to WNW-ESE at a rate of 4.5-6 mm yr-1, the models correctly predict the amount of shortening and wrenching between northern Algeria-Morocco and southern Spain and between NW Morocco and SW Iberia, as estimated from both GPS data and geological constraints. The consistency between modelled and observed velocities in the vicinity of Gibraltar and NW Morocco indicates that forcing by slab sinking beneath Gibraltar is not required to reproduce current horizontal deformation in these areas. In the Gulf of Cadiz and SW Iberia, the modelling results support a diffuse Nubia-Eurasia Plate boundary, where the convergence is accommodated along NNE-SSW to NE-SW and ENE-WSW thrust faults and WNW-ESE right-lateral strike-slip faults, over an area >200 km wide, in good general agreement with the distribution of the seismic strain rate and associated faulting mechanisms. The modelling results are robust to regional uncertainties in the structure of the lithosphere and have important implications for the earthquake and tsunami hazard of Portugal, SW Spain and Morocco. We predict maximum, long-term average fault slip rates between 1-2 mm yr-1, that is, less than 50 per cent the average plate relative movement, suggesting very long return periods for high-magnitude (Mw > 8) earthquakes on individual structures.publishe

Plio-Quaternary deformations in the Rabat region

The Rabat region, located in the northern border of the Moroccan Meseta, is generally considered as a present-day stable region. However, the fluvial and marine sedimentary rocks, with Pliocene and Quaternary ages, are deformed by joints, generally tensional, and by normal and strike-slip faults. The brittle structures indicate N-S compressional deformations, probably related to the present-day regional stresses in the crust, and extensional deformations related to the proximity to the Gharb basi

New GPS constraints on active deformation along the Africa-Iberia plate boundary

We use velocities from 65 continuous stations and 31 survey-mode GPS sites as well as kinematic modeling to investigate present day deformation along the Africa-Iberia plate boundary zone in the western Mediterranean region. The GPS velocity field shows southwestward motion of the central part of the Rif Mountains in northern Morocco with respect to Africa varying between 3.5 and 4.0. mm/yr, consistent with prior published results. Stations in the southwestern part of the Betic Mountains of southern Spain move west-southwest with respect to Eurasia (~ 2-3. mm/yr). The western component of Betics motion is consistent with partial transfer of Nubia-Eurasia plate motion into the southern Betics. The southward component of Betics motion with respect to Iberia is kinematically consistent with south to southwest motion of the Rif Mountains with respect to Africa. We use block modeling, constrained by mapped surface faults and seismicity to estimate the geometry and rates of strain accumulation on plate boundary structures. Our preferred plate boundary geometry includes one block between Iberia and Africa including the SW Betics, Alboran Sea, and central Rif. This geometry provides a good fit to the observed motions, suggesting a wide transpressive boundary in the westernmost Mediterranean, with deformation mainly accommodated by the Gloria-Azores fault system to the West and the Rif-Tell lineament to the East. Block boundaries encompass aspects of earlier interpretations suggesting three main deformation styles: (i) extension along the NE-SW trending Trans-Alboran shear zone, (ii) dextral strike-slip in the Betics corresponding to a well defined E-W seismic lineament, and (iii) right lateral strike-slip motion extending West to the Azores and right-lateral motion with compression extending East along the Algerian Tell. We interpret differential motion in the Rif-Alboran-Betic system to be driven both by surface processes related the Africa-Eurasia oblique convergence and sub-crustal dynamic processes associated with the long history of subduction of the Neotethys ocean lithosphere. The dextral slip identified in the Betic Mountains in Southern Spain may be related to the offshore fault that produced the Great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, and as such may represent a significant seismic hazard for the West Mediterranean region

Active tectonics of the Northern Rif (Morocco) from geomorphic and geochronological data

We present results of a geomorphological and morphotectonic analysis of the northeastern part of the Rif. We show that the present day kinematics of the Rif is characterized by active deformation along the Trougout and Nekor faults in the North-East. Digital Elevation Models of offset drainage features (streams, fluvial terraces) allow determining a normal-left-lateral motion along the Trougout fault and a left-lateral strike-slip motion along the Nekor fault. Preliminary 3He cosmogenic dates of tectonic markers yield vertical and horizontal slip rates of ~0.9mm/yr and ~0.5mm/yr, respectively along the Trougout fault. The present-day localized transtension seen in the north-eastern Rif morphology (Ras Tarf) is coeval with uplifted marine terraces near the Al Hoceima Bay. U/Th dating of shells yield an average uplift rate of ~0.2mm/yr during the past 500ka. These data show that active transtension in the northeastern Rif is also associated with uplift. These new morphotectonic constraints are consistent with the GPS measurements showing southwestward overall motion of most of the Rif belt with respect to stable Africa

Present-day movements of tectonic blocks in the Betic-Rif Arc from GPS measurements 1999-2005

GPS velocities and seismicity across the Betic-Rif Arc structural domains (Morocco and Iberia) provide a basis to evaluate present-day seismotectonic processes between different deformation belts. The results show asymmetric movements in the complex Alboran system accommodating the convergence between the African (Nubian) and Eurasian plates. While the Betic Mountains are attached to Iberia, moving toward the southeast with respect to Africa, the Rif is divided into three blocks with distinct displacements relative to Nubia: (1) the Tangier block moving southeastward, (2) the Central Rif block moving SSW, and (3) the Oriental Rif block undergoing clockwise rotation. GPS-derived motions decrease in rate from the Rif nappes complex to the foreland

New GPS constraints on active deformation along the Africa-Iberia plate boundary

International audienceWe use velocities from 65 continuous stations and 31 survey-mode GPS sites as well as kinematic modeling to investigate present day deformation along the Africa-Iberia plate boundary zone in the western Mediterranean region. The GPS velocity field shows southwestward motion of the central part of the Rif Mountains in northern Morocco with respect to Africa varying between 3.5 and 4.0 mm/yr, consistent with prior published results. Stations in the southwestern part of the Betic Mountains of southern Spain move west-southwest with respect to Eurasia (similar to 2-3 mm/yr). The western component of Betics motion is consistent with partial transfer of Nubia-Eurasia plate motion into the southern Betics. The southward component of Betics motion with respect to Iberia is kinematically consistent with south to southwest motion of the Rif Mountains with respect to Africa. We use block modeling, constrained by mapped surface faults and seismicity to estimate the geometry and rates of strain accumulation on plate boundary structures. Our preferred plate boundary geometry includes one block between Iberia and Africa including the SW Betics, Alboran Sea, and central Rif. This geometry provides a good fit to the observed motions, suggesting a wide transpressive boundary in the westernmost Mediterranean, with deformation mainly accommodated by the Gloria-Azores fault system to the West and the Rif-Tell lineament to the East. Block boundaries encompass aspects of earlier interpretations suggesting three main deformation styles: (i) extension along the NE-SW trending Trans-Alboran shear zone, (ii) dextral strike-slip in the Betics corresponding to a well defined E-W seismic lineament, and (iii) right lateral strike-slip motion extending West to the Azores and right-lateral motion with compression extending East along the Algerian Tell. We interpret differential motion in the Rif-Alboran-Betic system to be driven both by surface processes related the Africa-Eurasia oblique convergence and sub-crustal dynamic processes associated with the long history of subduction of the Neotethys ocean lithosphere. The dextral slip identified in the Betic Mountains in Southern Spain may be related to the offshore fault that produced the Great 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, and as such may represent a significant seismic hazard for the West Mediterranean region

The Al Hoceima (Morocco) earthquake of 24 February 2004, analysis and interpretation of data from ENVISAT ASAR and SPOT5 validated by ground-based observations

The magnitude M-w=6.3 earthquake in Al Hoceima, Morocco of 24 February, 2004 occurred in the active plate boundary accommodating the oblique convergence between Africa and Eurasia. Three different sets of estimates of its source parameters have already been published. We try to resolve the discrepancies between them by using additional data including two remote sensing satellite systems (ENVISAT and SPOTS). Using a model with a dislocation in an elastic half-space, we constrain the source parameters. The hypothesis of two subevents on distinct faults as inferred from seismological inversions is confirmed here by adopting a cross-fault mechanism. The rupture began on a left-lateral strike-slip fault striking at N10 degrees azimuth with 90 cm of horizontal slip and then transferred to a right-lateral strike-slip fault striking at N312 degrees azimuth with 85 cm of horizontal slip. The first fault is at 500 m depth from the free surface and the second fault is at 3 km depth. This model is consistent with ground-based observations, including GPS, seismology, and mapped surface fissures. The pair of faults activated in 2004 appears to constitute part of a complex seismogenic structure striking NNE-SSW that separates the Rif tectonic blocks

Active tectonics of the Northern Rif (Morocco) from geomorphic and geochronological data

International audienceWe present results of a geomorphological and morphotectonic analysis of the northeastern part of the Rif. We show that the present day kinematics of the Rif is characterized by active deformation along the Trougout and Nekor faults in the North-East. Digital Elevation Models of offset drainage features (streams, fluvial terraces) allow determining a normal-left-lateral motion along the Trougout fault and a left-lateral strike-slip motion along the Nekor fault. Preliminary 3He cosmogenic dates of tectonic markers yield vertical and horizontal slip rates of ∼0.9 mm/yr and ∼0.5 mm/yr, respectively along the Trougout fault. The present-day localized transtension seen in the north-eastern Rif morphology (Ras Tarf) is coeval with uplifted marine terraces near the Al Hoceima Bay. U/Th dating of shells yield an average uplift rate of ∼0.2 mm/yr during the past 500 ka. These data show that active transtension in the northeastern Rif is also associated with uplift. These new morphotectonic constraints are consistent with the GPS measurements showing southwestward overall motion of most of the Rif belt with respect to stable Africa

High-resolution imagery of active faulting offshore Al Hoceima, Northern Morocco

Two recent destructive earthquakes in 1994 and 2004 near Al Hoceima highlight that the northern Moroccan margin is one of the most seismically active regions of the Western Mediterranean area. Despite onshore geodetic, seismological and tectonic field studies, the onshore-offshore location and extent of the main active faults remain poorly constrained. Offshore Al Hoceima, high-resolution seismic reflection and swath-bathymetry have been recently acquired during the Marlboro-2 cruise. These data at shallow water depth, close to the coast, allow us to describe the location, continuity and geometry of three active faults bounding the offshore Nekor basin. The well-expressed normal-left-lateral onshore Trougout fault can be followed offshore during several kilometers with a N171 degrees E +/- 3 degrees trend. Westward, the Bousekkour-Aghbal normal-left-lateral onshore fault is expressed offshore with a N020 degrees E +/- 4 degrees trending fault The N030 degrees E +/- 2 degrees Bokkoya fault corresponds to the western boundary of the Plio-Quaternary offshore Nekor basin in the Al Hoceima bay and seems to define an en echelon tectonic pattern with the Bousekkour-Aghbal fault. We propose that these three faults are part of the complex transtensional system between the Nekor fault and the Al-Idrissi fault zone. Our characterization of the offshore expression of active faulting in the Al Hoceima region is consistent with the geometry and nature of the active fault planes deduced from onshore geomorphological and morphotectonic analyses, as well as seismological, geodetic and geodynamic data. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved