Effectiveness and Safety of the Sequential Use of a Second and Third Anti-TNF Agent in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results from the Eneida Registry

Background: The effectiveness of the switch to another anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) agent is not known. The aim of this study was to analyze the effectiveness and safety of treatment with a second and third anti-TNF drug after intolerance to or failure of a previous anti-TNF agent in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Methods: We included patients diagnosed with IBD from the ENEIDA registry who received another anti-TNF after intolerance to or failure of a prior anti-TNF agent. Results: A total of 1122 patients were included. In the short term, remission was achieved in 55% of the patients with the second anti-TNF. The incidence of loss of response was 19% per patient-year with the second anti-TNF. Combination therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3; P < 0.0001) and ulcerative colitis vs Crohn''s disease (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1; P = 0.005) were associated with a higher probability of loss of response. Fifteen percent of the patients had adverse events, and 10% had to discontinue the second anti-TNF. Of the 71 patients who received a third anti-TNF, 55% achieved remission. The incidence of loss of response was 22% per patient-year with a third anti-TNF. Adverse events occurred in 7 patients (11%), but only 1 stopped the drug. Conclusions: Approximately half of the patients who received a second anti-TNF achieved remission; nevertheless, a significant proportion of them subsequently lost response. Combination therapy and type of IBD were associated with loss of response. Remission was achieved in almost 50% of patients who received a third anti-TNF; nevertheless, a significant proportion of them subsequently lost response

Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance

20 Pags.- 9 Tabls.- 5 Figs.- Supp. data in Appendix A (online).In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES-Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems.This research was funded by the project MULCLIVAR, from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) CGL2012-38923-C02-02, A. Castaneda-Vera ˜ has a PhD grant from UPM.Peer reviewe

Low performance of ultrasound surveillance for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in HIV-infected patients

On behalf of the GEHEP-002 Study Group.[Objective]: To assess the performance of ultrasound surveillance for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HIV-infected patients.[Methods]: The GEHEP-002 cohort recruits HCC cases diagnosed in HIV-infected patients from 32 centers across Spain. The proportion of ‘ultrasound lack of detection’, defined as HCC diagnosed within the first 3 months after a normal surveillance ultrasound, and the proportion of ‘surveillance failure’, defined as cases in which surveillance failed to detect HCC at early stage, were assessed. To assess the impact of HIV, a control population of 104 HCC cases diagnosed in hepatitis C virus-monoinfected patients during the study period was used.[Results]: A total of 186 (54%) out of 346 HCC cases in HIV-infected patients were diagnosed within an ultrasound surveillance program. Ultrasound lack of detection occurred in 16 (8.6%) of them. Ultrasound surveillance failure occurred in 107 (57%) out of 186 cases diagnosed by screening, whereas this occurred in 18 (29%) out of 62 diagnosed in the control group (P < 0.0001). HCC cases after ultrasound surveillance failure showed a lower frequency of undetectable HIV viral load at diagnosis. The probability of 1-year and 2-year survival after HCC diagnosis among those diagnosed by screening was 56 and 45% in HIV-infected patients, whereas it was 79 and 64% in HIV-negative patients (P = 0.038).[Conclusion]: The performance of ultrasound surveillance of HCC in HIV-infected patients is very poor and worse than that shown outside HIV infection. A HCC surveillance policy based on ultrasound examinations every 6 months might be insufficient in HIV-infected patients with cirrhosis.The current study was supported by grants from the Consejería de Salud de la Junta de Andalucía (PI-0014/2014), the Servicio Andaluz de Salud (grant number SAS/111239) and the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias ISCIII (grant number PI13/01621) and Project ‘PI16/01443’, funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, integrated in the national I+D+i 2013–2016 and co-funded by European Union (ERDF/ESF, ‘Investing in your future’). J.A.P. is the recipient of an intensification grant from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grant number Programa-I3SNS). Besides, this work has been partially funded by the Grupo para el Estudio de las Hepatitis Víricas (GEHEP) de la SEIMC (2017 grant to project GEHEP-002 and 2018 grant to project GEHEP-002), the SPANISH AIDS Research Network RD16/0025/0010 as part of the Plan Nacional R+D+I and cofinanced by ISCIII Subdirección General de Evaluación y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER).Peer reviewe

Impact of HIV on the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus-infected patients

[Background]: Previous studies have suggested that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has an aggressive presentation and a shorter survival in people with HIV (PWH). This could be due to later diagnosis or lower rates of HCC treatment, and not to HIV infection itself.[Aim]: To assess the impact of HIV on HCC survival in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients.[Methods]: Multicenter cohort study (1999–2018) of 342 and 135 HCC cases diagnosed in HIV/HCV-infected and HCV-monoinfected patients. Survival after HCC diagnosis and its predictors were assessed.[Results]: HCC was at Barcelona-Clinic Liver-Cancer (BCLC) stage 0/A in 114 (33%) HIV/HCV-coinfected and in 76 (56%) HCV-monoinfected individuals (P < 0.001). Of them, 97 (85%) and 50 (68%) underwent curative therapies (P = 0.001). After a median (Q1–Q3) follow-up of 11 (3–31) months, 334 (70%) patients died. Overall 1 and 3-year survival was 50 and 31% in PWH and 69 and 34% in those without HIV (P = 0.16). Among those diagnosed at BCLC stage 0/A, 1 and 3-year survival was 94 and 66% in PWH whereas it was 90 and 54% in HIV-negative patients (P = 0.006). Independent predictors of mortality were age, BCLC stage and α-fetoprotein levels. HIV infection was not independently associated with mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.57; 95% confidence interval: 0.88–2.78; P = 0.12].[Conclusion]: HIV coinfection has no impact on the survival after the diagnosis of HCC in HCV-infected patients. Although overall mortality is higher in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, this seem to be related with lower rates of early diagnosis HCC in HIV-infected patients and not with HIV infection itself or a lower access to HCC therapy