[i]In silico[/i] system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management

Genetic improvement of grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC) is impeded by large genotype×environment×management interactions and by compensatory effects between traits. Here global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the process-based wheat model SiriusQuality2 were conducted with the aim of identifying candidate traits to increase GY and GPC. Three contrasted European sites were selected and simulations were performed using long-term weather data and two nitrogen (N) treatments in order to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on GY and GPC under variable environments. The overall influence of all 75 plant parameters of SiriusQuality2 was first analysed using the Morris method. Forty-one influential parameters were identified and their individual (first-order) and total effects on the model outputs were investigated using the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. The overall effect of the parameters was dominated by their interactions with other parameters. Under high N supply, a few influential parameters with respect to GY were identified (e.g. radiation use efficiency, potential duration of grain filling, and phyllochron). However, under low N, >10 parameters showed similar effects on GY and GPC. All parameters had opposite effects on GY and GPC, but leaf and stem N storage capacity appeared as good candidate traits to change the intercept of the negative relationship between GY and GPC. This study provides a system analysis of traits determining GY and GPC under variable environments and delivers valuable information to prioritize model development and experimental work

Reducing uncertainty in prediction of wheat performance under climate change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop performances are inherently uncertain. However, multimodel uncertainty analysis of crop responses is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we report on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project ensemble of 30 wheat models tested using both crop and climate observed data in diverse environments, including infra-red heating field experiments, for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth, N economy and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models in reproducing observations was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables. Clusters of wheat models organized by their correlations with temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation revealed common characteristics of climatic responses; however, models are rarely in the same cluster when comparing across sites. We also found that the amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on model ensemble climatic responses, but can be large for any single model. When simulating impacts assuming a mid-century A2 emissions scenario for climate projections from 16 downscaled general circulation models and 26 wheat models, a greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among wheat models rather than to variations among climate models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with atmospheric [CO2] and associated warming. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response (at current atmospheric [CO2]) indicated that warming is already reducing yields at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Finally, only a very weak relationship was found between the models’ sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs. In conclusion, uncertainties in prediction of climate change impacts on crop performance can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and are better quantified through use of impact ensembles

Genetic analysis of grain protein deviation in wheat

Relatório de estágio do mestrado em Ensino da Educação Física nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário, apresentado à Faculdade de Ciências do Desporto e Educação Física da Universidade de CoimbraO Estágio Pedagógico operacionalizado na Escola Secundária de Anadia representou a possibilidade de aplicar em contexto real os conhecimentos e saberes científicos adquiridos ao longo do curso, aliados à experiência profissional já adquirida. Ao longo deste percurso assumiu particular importância a reflexão constante sobre a prática, aliada à investigação e mobilização de saberes pertinentes. É esta dinâmica que permite ao professor ser produtor da sua profissão, ser um profissional reflexivo e crítico, pois o ato de ensinar representa uma atividade transformadora da sociedade. Os professores devem questionar diariamente o que ensinam, a forma como o fazem e os objetivos que perseguem. A cultura de profissionalidade docente assenta no conhecimento pedagógico de e para a mestria. Uma das principais conclusões deste processo de formação evidencia a necessidade de ensinar e promover a aprendizagem para todos os alunos. Até os menos aptos no domínio motor podem aceder a níveis elevados de aprendizagem, desde que beneficiem de oportunidades e condições educativas apropriadas. Esta é uma preocupação que deve assistir a todos os professores, pois trata-se acima de tudo, de uma questão de responsabilidade educativa social. Apenas com professores que acreditem na importância da qualidade do ensino se pode credibilizar a Educação Física. Assiste-se a um momento de particular incerteza, sobretudo nas orientações emanadas da administração central, evidenciadas, por exemplo, na exclusão da nota de Educação Física no apuramento da média final do Ensino Secundário. Esta medida constituiu uma clara desvalorização da disciplina, com reflexos negativos na participação e empenho motor dos alunos. Cabe-nos a nós, futuros profissionais, guiados por valores éticos e morais, devolver o reconhecimento da importância inequívoca da disciplina de Educação Física, com estatuto formal igual às demais. The Teaching Practice that took place in the Secondary School of Anadia provided the possibility to apply in real context the scientific knowledge and skills acquired while taking the degree, combined with professional experience already acquired. Throughout this path, it became particularly important the constant reflection on the practice, along with the research and the use of relevant knowledge. This dynamics allows the teacher to be a producer of his career, to be a reflective and critical professional, as teaching is an activity that enables society to change. Teachers should question what they teach, how they teach and their teaching goals. The professional teaching culture is based on knowledge and teaching to mastery. One of the main conclusions of this practice process highlights the need to teach and to promote learning for all students. Even the least able at the motor domain, can have access to higher levels of learning, if they are given the educational opportunities and the appropriate conditions. This is a concern all teachers should have in mind, since that is a question of educational and social responsibility. Only the teachers who believe in the importance of the quality of education can make Physical Education more credible. We are witnessing a moment of particular uncertainty, especially in the guidelines issued by the government, seen mainly when the Physical Education marks are not taken into account to calculate the final average of Secondary School Education. This measure was a clear devaluation of this school subject, with negative effects on students’ participation and effort. It is up to us, as future professionals guided by ethical and moral values, to gain back the recognition of the clear relevance of Physical Education – a subject as important as all the others

Epidemiology of Distal Renal Tubular Acidosis: A Study Using Linked UK Primary Care and Hospital Data

Introduction: Distal renal tubular acidosis (dRTA), or RTA type 1, a rare inherited or acquired disease, is a disorder of the distal tubule caused by impaired urinary acid secretion. Due to associated conditions and nonspecific symptoms, dRTA may go undetected. This analysis aims to estimate the prevalence of dRTA in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases and extrapolate it to European Union Five (EU5) populations. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using the CPRD GOLD database and linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data to identify diagnosed and potentially undiagnosed or miscoded patients (suspected patients). Patients’ records with at least one diagnosis code for dRTA, RTA, specific autoimmune diseases, or renal disorders recorded between January 1987 and November 2017 were obtained and analyzed. An algorithm was developed to detect potentially undiagnosed/miscoded dRTA, based on associated conditions and prescriptions. Results: A total of 216 patients with diagnosis of RTA or dRTA were identified (with 98 linked to hospital data), and 447 patients were identified as having suspected dRTA. dRTA prevalence for 2017 was estimated between 0.46 (recorded cases, of which 22.1% were considered primary) and 1.60 when including suspected cases (7.6% primary) per 10,000 people. Prescription and clinical records of diagnosed patients revealed a wide range of comorbidities and a need for pharmacological treatment to manage associated symptoms. Conclusion: The study provides new estimates of dRTA prevalence in Europe and suggests that patients may often be unreported or miscoded, potentially confounding appropriate disease management

Invited Review: IPCC, Agriculture and Food - A Case of Shifting Cultivation and History.

Since 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed data base of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs were analysed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region and whether or not adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and non-production aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with in an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modelling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and non-production aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications

An AgMIP Framework for Improved Agricultural Representation in Integrated Assessment Models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications