Bayesian Approach to Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model, with an Application to Tobacco Use

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of bivariate ordered probit regression model with excess of zeros. Specifically, in the context of joint modeling of two ordered outcomes, we develop zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model and carry out estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Using household tobacco survey data with substantial proportion of zeros, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of individual problem of smoking and chewing tobacco. In our illustration, we find strong evidence that accounting for excess zeros provides good fit to the data. The example shows that the use of a model that ignores zero-inflation masks differential effects of covariates on nonusers and users

Morphology, Biochemical and Genomic Diversity of Hexaploid Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties in Ethiopia: A Prospective Study

Hexaploid Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of the most important food cereals grown in many areas worldwide. World population is to increase by 2.6 billion in 2050. Ethiopia is one of the world’s nine countries needed to increase food production. Since few studies on genetic diversity & in adequate evaluation of bread wheat varieties; my objective the project is to study genetic diversity of bread wheat varieties using morphological, SSRs, good baking quality, grain quality performance across environments, and compare and contrast all the mentioned characters. 121 bread wheat varieties, arranged in 11x11 simple lattice design, will be studied at 3 agro ecological regions of Ethiopia for 2013/14 using 25 morphological/phenotypic parameters as a preliminary genetic diversity study from the field; 10 baking and milling quality parameters of the varieties, seed storage protein using SDS electrophoresis banding patterns, and DNA finger printing microsatellite markers of each varieties in laboratory. Hence, the extent and nature of genetic diversity, grain quality, environmental effects on seed storage proteins, genetic variation using SSRs markers, and potential varieties for further breeding and improvement of nutritional and baking quality suggested. Genetic diversity, plant breeders rely on during selection in cultivar development, is one of the key factors for the improvement of many crop plants including wheat. This research is of great interest and is in line with the current Global Wheat Program, will contribute to the increasing of food security, improve productivity and profitability of wheat farming and sustain natural resources in the developing world.Key words: Genetic diversity, SSRs, Triticum aestivum L., Varieties

Squalene and amentoflavone from Antidesma laciniatum

Squalene, (2E, 7x,11x)-phyt-2-en-1-ol and amentoflavone have been isolated from the extract of the leaves of Antidesma laciniatum. Their structures were elucidated using spectroscopic methods. This is the first report of these compounds from Antidesma species.   KEY WORDS: Antidesma laciniatum, Euphorbiaceae, Squalene, Amentoflavone, (2E, 7x,11x)-Phyt-2-en-1-ol  Bull. Chem. Soc. Ethiop. 2006, 20(2), 325-328

The OmegaWhite Survey for Short-Period Variable Stars IV: Discovery of the warm DQ white dwarf OW J175358.85-310728.9

We present the discovery and follow-up observations of the second known variable warm DQ white dwarf OW J175358.85-310728.9 (OW J1753-3107). OW J1753-3107 is the brightest of any of the currently known warm or hot DQ and was discovered in the OmegaWhite Survey as exhibiting optical variations on a period of 35.5452 (2) mins, with no evidence for other periods in its light curves. This period has remained constant over the last two years and a single-period sinusoidal model provides a good fit for all follow-up light curves. The spectrum consists of a very blue continuum with strong absorption lines of neutral and ionised carbon, a broad He I 4471 A line, and possibly weaker hydrogen lines. The C I lines are Zeeman split, and indicate the presence of a strong magnetic field. Using spectral Paschen-Back model descriptions, we determine that OW J1753-3107 exhibits the following physical parameters: T_eff = 15430 K, log(g) = 9.0, log(N(C)/N(He)) = -1.2, and the mean magnetic field strength is B_z =2.1 MG. This relatively low temperature and carbon abundance (compared to the expected properties of hot DQs) is similar to that seen in the other warm DQ SDSS J1036+6522. Although OW J1753-3107 appears to be a twin of SDSS J1036+6522, it exhibits a modulation on a period slightly longer than the dominant period in SDSS J1036+6522 and has a higher carbon abundance. The source of variations is uncertain, but they are believed to originate from the rotation of the magnetic white dwarf.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, 7 tables. Accepted for publication by MNRA

Phytochemical investigations of three Rhodocodon (Hyacinthaceae Sensu APG II) species

The genus Rhodocodon (Hyacinthaceae sensu APG II) is endemic to Madagascar and its phytochemistry has not been described previously. The phytochemistry of three species in this genus has been investigated and eight compounds, including three bufadienolides (compounds 1, 4, and 5), a norlignan (2), and four homoisoflavonoids (compounds 3 and 6-8) have been isolated and identified. Compounds 1-3 and 6-8 have not been described previously. The COX-2 inhibitory activity of compound 6 and compound 7 acetate (compound 7A) were investigated on isolated colorectal cancer cells. Compounds 6 and 7A inhibited COX-2 by 10% and 8%, respectively, at a concentration of 12.5 M compared to 12% for 1 mM aspirin (the positive control)

Factors influencing the ownership and utilization of long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria prevention in Ethiopia

Background Utilization of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is regarded as key malaria prevention and control strategy. However, studies have reported a large gap in terms of both ownership and utilization particularly in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). With continual efforts to improve the use of LLIN and to progress malaria elimination, examining the factors influencing the ownership and usage of LLIN is of high importance. Therefore, the current study was conducted to examine the level of ownership and use of LLIN along with identification of associated factors at household level. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in Mirab Abaya District, Southern Ethiopia in June and July 2014. A total of 540 households, with an estimated 2690 members, were selected in four kebeles of the district known to have high incidence of malaria. Trained data collectors interviewed household heads to collect information on the knowledge, ownership and utilization of LLINs, which was complemented by direct observation on the conditions and use of the nets through house-to-house visit. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated to LLIN use. Results Of 540 households intended to be included in the survey, 507 responded to the study (94.24% response rate), covering the homes of 2759 people. More than 58% of the households had family size >5 (the regional average), and 60.2% of them had at least one child below the age of 5 years. The ownership of at least one LLIN among households surveyed was 89.9%, and using at least one LLIN during the night prior to the survey among net owners was 85.1% (n = 456). Only 36.7% (186) mentioned at least as the mean of correct scores of all participants for 14 possible malaria symptoms and 32.7% (166) knew at least as the mean of correct scores of all participants for possible preventive methods. Over 30% of nets owned by the households were out of use. After controlling for confounding factors, having two or more sleeping places (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.58, 95% CI 1.17, 5.73), knowledge that LLIN prevents malaria (aOR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.17, 5.37), the presence of hanging bed nets (aOR = 19.24, 95% CI 9.24, 40.07) and walls of the house plastered or painted >12 months ago (aOR = 0.09, 95% CI 0.01, 0.71) were important predictors of LLIN utilization. Conclusions This study found a higher proportion of LLIN ownership and utilization by households than had previously been found in similar studies in Ethiopia, and in many studies in SSA. However, poor knowledge of the transmission mechanisms and the symptoms of malaria, and vector control measures to prevent malaria were evident. Moderate proportions of nets were found to be out of use or in poor repair. Efforts should be in place to maintain the current rate of utilization of LLIN in the district and improve on the identified gaps in order to support the elimination of malaria

Diagnostics to Support Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis-Development of Two Target Product Profiles

As lymphatic filariasis (LF) programs move closer to established targets for validation elimination of LF as a public health problem, diagnostic tools capable of supporting the needs of the programs are critical for success. Known limitations of existing diagnostic tools make it challenging to have confidence that program endpoints have been achieved. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) established a Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group (DTAG) for Neglected Tropical Diseases tasked with prioritizing diagnostic needs including defining use-cases and target product profiles (TPPs) for needed tools. Subsequently, disease-specific DTAG subgroups, including one focused on LF, were established to develop TPPs and use-case analyses to be used by product developers. Here, we describe the development of two priority TPPs for LF diagnostics needed for making decisions for stopping mass drug administration (MDA) of a triple drug regimen and surveillance. Utilizing the WHO core TPP development process as the framework, the LF subgroup convened to discuss and determine attributes required for each use case. TPPs considered the following parameters: Product use, design, performance, product configuration and cost, and access and equity. Version 1.0 TPPs for two use cases were published by WHO on 12 March 2021 within the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development. A common TPP characteristic that emerged in both use cases was the need to identify new biomarkers that would allow for greater precision in program delivery. As LF diagnostic tests are rarely used for individual clinical diagnosis, it became apparent that reliance on population-based surveys for decision making requires consideration of test performance in the context of such surveys. In low prevalence settings, the number of false positive test results may lead to unnecessary continuation or resumption of MDA, thus wasting valuable resources and time. Therefore, highly specific diagnostic tools are paramount when used to measure low thresholds. The TPP process brought to the forefront the importance of linking use case, program platform and diagnostic performance characteristics when defining required criteria for diagnostic tools

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes