Cave and Karst evolution in the Alps and their relation to paleoclimate and paleotopography

Progress in the understanding of cave genesis processes, as well as the intensive research carried out in the Alps during the last decades, permit to summarize the latest knowledge about Alpine caves. The phreatic parts of cave systems develop close to the karst water table, which depends on the spring position, which in turn is generally related to the valley bottom. Thus, caves are directly linked with the geomorphic evolution of the surface and reflect valley deepening. The sediments deposited in the caves help to reconstruct the morphologic succession and the paleoclimatic evolution. Moreover, they are the only means to date the caves and thus the landscape evolution. Caves appear as soon as there is an emersion of limestone from the sea and a water table gradient. Mesozoic and early tertiary paleokarsts within the alpine range prove of these ancient emersions. Hydrothermal karst seems to be more widespread than previously presumed. This is mostly due to the fact that usually, hydrothermal caves are later reused (and reshaped) by meteoric waters

Predicting creditworthiness in retail banking with limited scoring data

The preoccupation with modelling credit scoring systems including their relevance to predicting and decision making in the financial sector has been with developed countries, whilst developing countries have been largely neglected. The focus of our investigation is on the Cameroonian banking sector with implications for fellow members of the Banque des Etats de L'Afrique Centrale (BEAC) family which apply the same system. We apply logistic regression (LR), Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN) in building our knowledge-based scoring models. To compare various models’ performances, we use ROC curves and Gini coefficients as evaluation criteria and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov curve as a robustness test. The results demonstrate that an improvement in terms of predicting power from 15.69% default cases under the current system, to 7.68% based on the best scoring model, namely CCNN can be achieved. The predictive capabilities of all models are rated as at least very good using the Gini coefficient; and rated excellent using the ROC curve for CCNN. Our robustness test confirmed these results. It should be emphasised that in terms of prediction rate, CCNN is superior to the other techniques investigated in this paper. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the variables identifies previous occupation, borrower's account functioning, guarantees, other loans and monthly expenses as key variables in the forecasting and decision making processes which are at the heart of overall credit policy

Resistance of thermally modified ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) wood under steam pressure against rot fungi, soil-inhabiting micro-organisms and termites

Thermal modification processes have been developed to increase the biological durability and dimensional stability of wood. The aim of this paper was to study the influence of ThermoWood® treatment intensity on improvement of wood decay resistance against soil-inhabiting micro-organisms, brown/white rots and termite exposures. All of the tests were carried out in the laboratory with two different complementary research materials. The main research material consisted of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) wood thermally modified at temperatures of 170, 200, 215 and 228 °C. The reference materials were untreated ash and beech wood for decay resistance tests, untreated ash wood for soil bed tests and untreated ash, beech and pine wood for termite resistance tests. An agar block test was used to determine the resistance to two brown-rot and two white-rot fungi according to CEN/TS 15083-1 directives. Durability against soil-inhabiting micro-organisms was determined following the CEN/TS 15083-2 directives, by measuring the weight loss, modulus of elasticity (MOE) and modulus of rupture (MOR) after incubation periods of 24, 32 and 90 weeks. Finally, Reticulitermes santonensis species was used for determining the termite attack resistance by non-choice screening tests, with a size sample adjustment according to EN 117 standard directives on control samples and on samples which have previously been exposed to soil bed test. Thermal modification increased the biological durability of all samples. However, high thermal modification temperature above 215 °C, represented by a wood mass loss (ML%) due to thermal degradation of 20%, was needed to reach resistance against decay comparable with the durability classes of ‘‘durable’’ or ‘‘very durable’’ in the soil bed test. The brown-rot and white-rot tests gave slightly better durability classes than the soil bed test. Whatever the heat treatment conditions are, thermally modified ash wood was not efficient against termite attack neither before nor after soft rot degradation