Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Guía del Trabajo Social en escuelas infantiles: "Escuela de madres y padres"

Este trabajo final de carrera supone la creación de un protocolo de actuación para las/os trabajadoras/es sociales en los centros de educación infantil a través de un programa de escuela de madres y padres. Programa que busca empoderar a sus participantes en el cuidado de la infancia y contribuir a la mejora del bienestar de todos. El protocolo se constituye en etapas ordenadas cronológicamente. Se pretende que sea útil en la práctica, flexible y de fácil comprensión para todos los profesionales que pretendan realizar una experiencia similar. El trabajo incluye plasmar los pilares metodológicos, teóricos y éticos del trabajo social que guían esta actuación propuesta así como la delimitación del marco jurídico en el que se desarrolla la misma. Incorpora además el programa práctico que constituye el origen de la idea fundamental del protocolo. A partir de estos se busca la solidez y consolidación del protocolo de actuación desarrollado.Grado en Trabajo Socia

Marx en clave de actualidad: Resignificaciones, descentramientos y resistencias desde el Sur Global

Objetivo: en este artículo se pretende dar respuesta a resignificaciones, descentramientos y resistencias vividas en el Sur Global, y su interrelación con los movimientos antisistémicos como expresiones de un creciente inconformismo social. Metodología: se centra en el análisis conceptual de teóricos comoMarx, Wallerstein y Hobsbawm, desde sus escritos, con el propósito de descubrir nuevas explicaciones con respecto a problemas políticos y socioeconómicos latentes en el momento actual, los cuales se han visto agravados con la actual pandemia de la COVID-19. Resultados: la existencia de expresiones de rebeldía, en general, se constituyen en movimientos antisistémicos con propósitos de derrumbar todo lo existente y promover un nuevo sistema histórico diferente de todo lo vivido. Dentro de los nuevos movimientos antisistémicos, con una línea temporal de comienzo que se podría fijar desde el año 2011 en América Latina y el mundo, se evidencia un cambio tanto en la forma de concebir la protesta como en la relación que se instaura con los demás sujetos, y con la tecnología cibernética o de sistemas de comunicación electrónicos y mecánicos cada vez más sofisticados. Conclusiones: cada teórico de las ciencias sociales responde a su época y a los problemas propios de la sociedad de la que es parte. La época actual no es la excepción y se retoman aspectos de otras actualidades pasadas para comprender este presente cada vez más convulso y con problemas no resueltos de vieja data, entre ellos, las enormes diferencias y desigualdades entre los denominados países del Primer Mundo y el Sur Global.

Predictive control for hydrogen production by electrolysis in an offshore platform using renewable energies

An Energy Management System (EMS), based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) ideas, is proposed here to balance the consumption of power by a set of electrolysis units in an offshore platform. In order to produce renewable hydrogen, the power is locally generated by wind turbines and wave energy converters and fully used by the electrolyzers. The energy generated at the platform by wind and wave is balanced by regulating the operating point of each electrolysis unit and its connections or disconnections, using an MPC based on a Mixed-Integer-Quadratic-Programming algorithm. This Predictive Control algorithm makes it possible to take into account predictions of available power and power consumption, to improve the balance and reduce the number of connections and disconnections of the devices. Two case studies are carried out on different installations composed of wave and wind energies feeding a set of alkaline electrolyzers. Validation using measured data at the target location of the platforms shows the adequate operation of the proposed EMS

Environmental factors are associated to hospital outcomes in COVID-19 patients during lockdown and post-lockdown in 2020: A nationwide study

Producción CientíficaThis study analyzed, at a postcode detailed level, the relation-ship between short-term exposure to environmental factors and hospital ad-missions, in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, and ICU mortality due to COVID-19 during the lockdown and post-lockdown 2020 period in Spain. Short-term exposure to air pollutants impacts COVID-19 out-comes during the lockdown, especially PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2. These pollutants are associated with hospital admission, hospital mortality and ICU admission, while ICU mortality is mainly associated with PM2.5 and PM10. Our findings reveal the importance of monitoring air pollutants in respiratory infectious diseases.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Unión Europea – Next Generation EU (CB21/13/00044 y CB21/13/ 00051)Instituto Carlos III - FEDER. Río Hortega grant (CM20/00138

Las visitas a los juzgados como actividad práctica para la docencia del Derecho Procesal

This paper is focussed on how visits to the Courts of Justice may be regarded as a practical activity for teaching Procedural Law. After performing this activity for several years, accompanying our students to court hearings, trials and other sorts of judicial proceedings, we carried out a survey about this kind of visits, their usefulness, their frequency and the work that must be done in class before and after them. In this study, the results of over three hundred surveys are presented, analyzed and evaluated, as well as measures to improve this activity are proposed and explained.Nuestro trabajo se centra en el estudio de la actividad consistente en asistir y presenciar actuaciones judiciales reales, como práctica para la enseñanza del Derecho Procesal. Tras la experiencia de acudir varios años con alumnos a los juzgados, hemos elaborado un cuestionario en el que se les interroga acerca de la utilidad y el interés formativo de estas visitas, la frecuencia y el momento que estiman más adecuados, y sobre el trabajo previo y posterior con que se han de acompañar. Los resultados obtenidos en algo más de trescientas encuestas se exponen, analizan y valoran, ofreciendo finalmente una serie de conclusiones que permitirán mejorar y enriquecer esta actividad, al recoger la opinión de los alumnos

Estimation of supply and demand of tertiary education places in advanced digital profiles in the EU

In order to investigate the extent to which the education offer of advanced digital skills in Europe matches labour market needs, this study estimates the supply and demand of university places for studies covering the technological domains of Artificial Intelligence (AI), High Performance Computing (HPC), Cybersecurity (CS) and Data Science (DS), in the EU27, United Kingdom and Norway. The difference between demand and supply of tertiary education places (Bachelor and Master or equivalent level) in the mentioned technological domains is referred in this report as unmet students’ demand of places, or unmet demand. Demanded places, available places and unmet demand are estimated for the following dimensions: (a) the tertiary education level in which this demand is observed: Bachelor and Master or equivalent programmes; (b) the programme’s scope, or depth with which education programmes address the technological domain: broad and specialised; and (c) the main fields of education where this tuition is offered: Business Administration and Law; Natural sciences and Mathematics; Information and Communication Technology (ICT); and Engineering, Manufacturing and Construction, with the remaining fields grouped together in a fifth category. From these estimations, it is concluded that the number of available places in the EU27, at Bachelor level, reaches 587,000 for studies with AI content, 106,000 places offered in HPC, 307,000 places in CS and 444,000 places offered in the domain of DS. At Master level this demand is comparatively lower, except for the DS domain, were it equals the offer at bachelor level. DS outnumbers AI in demand of places at Master level, with 602,000 and 535,000 demanded places, respectively. The unmet demand for AI, HPC, CS and DS in EU27 at MSc level is approximately 150,000, 33,000, 59,000 and 167,000 places, respectively. At BSc level, the unmet demand reaches 273,000, 53,000, 159,000 and 213,000 places, respectively. Another finding is that the unmet demand for broad academic programmes is higher than for specialised programmes of all technological domains and education levels (Bachelor and Master). Higher availability of places for AI, HPC, CS and DS domains is found for academic programmes taught in the ICT field of education, both at Bachelor and Master levels. For Bachelor studies, Germany and Finland are estimated as the countries with the highest unmet demand in AI, HPC, CS and DS, either with a broad or specialised scope. United Kingdom is the only studied country offering places for all fields of education and technological domains at Bachelor level and Master level. For Master studies, this is also found in Germany, Ireland, France and Portugal

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.Comment: Revised version. Recommended for publication in Tectonophysic

Detecção de fatores de risco cardiovasculares em adolescentes atendidos MONTEVIDEO EDUCAÇÃO PÚBLICA SECUNDÁRIA.

Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death in Uruguay. There is no research concerning teenagers in Uruguay.This study describes the risk situation of cardiovascular disease in teenagers studying in Montevideo´s public schools during September – October 2010. To achieve this objective, presence of cardiovascular risk factors in this population were studied, in order to measure their prevalence and to know their frequency of association. It is a descriptive cross-sectional study with quantitative approach. The population was 31500 students with a sample of 383 students. Results: only 3% of the population takes 5 or more pie ces of fruits or vegetables per day. More than half do not eat fish. 7% smoked in the last 30 days, 46,6% smoked at home. 27% are overweight. 92% practice sports at school and 45,7% exercise outside the school. 8,5% of parents have heart disease and 33% high blood pressure. We can conclude there are several modifiable cardiovascularrisk factors among this population (half of the studied population), being women the most affected.Las enfermedades cardiovasculares son la primera causa en Uruguay. A nivel nacional, no existen investigaciones en adolescentes sobre el tema. El estudio pretende describir la situación de riesgo de enfermedad cardiovascular enadolescentes que cursan el ciclo básico en liceos públicos diurnos de Montevideo, período setiembre-octubre de 2010. Para esto se buscó identificar la presencia deFactores de Riesgo Cardiovascular (FRCV) en la población estudiada, medir la prevalencia de los mismos y conocer su frecuencia de asociación. Estudio descriptivo, transversal y cuantitativo. La población fue de 31500 estudiantes, con una muestra de 383 estudiantes. Algunos resultados destacados mostraron que el 3% de la población consume frutas y verduras. El 7% fumó en los últimos 30 días. El 27% tiene exceso de peso. El 45,7% realiza actividad física extracurricular. En el 8,5% de los casos alguno de sus padres padece enfermedad cardíaca y en el 33% hipertensión arterial. En esta población existen varios factores de riesgo cardiovascular: sedentarismo, alimentación inadecuada, tabaquismo, antecedentes familiares, sobrepeso y obesidad. Podemos concluir que existe una alta prevalencia de factores de riesgo modificables (la mitad de la población estudiada), siendo las mujeres las más afectadas.As doenças cardiovasculares são a primeira causa de morte no Uruguai. Em nível nacional, sobre o tema não existem pesquisas em adolescentes. O estudo pretende descrever a situação de risco de doença cardiovascular em adolescentesmatriculados no ensino médio, em cursos diurnos de colégios públicos de Montevidéu, no período setembro-outubro de 2010. Para isso, procurou-se identificar a presença de Fatores de Risco Cardiovascular (FRCV) na população estudada, medir a prevalência dos mesmos e conhecer sua frequência de associação. Estudo descritivo, transversal e quantitativo. A população foi de 31.500 estudantes, com 383 estudantes como amostra. Alguns resultados destacados mostraram que só 3% da população consomem frutas e verduras; 7% fumaram nos últimos 30 dias; 27% têm excesso de peso; 45,7% realizam atividade física extracurricular. Em 8,5% dos casos, um dos pais padece doença cardíaca e, em 33%, hipertensão arterial. Nesta população existem vários fatores de risco cardiovascular:sedentarismo, alimentação inadequada, tabagismo,histórico familiar, sobrepeso e obesidade. Pode-se concluir que existe uma alta prevalência de fatores de risco modificáveis (metade da população estudada),com as mulheres como as mais atingidas

Epidemiology of bacterial co-infections and risk factors in COVID-19-hospitalized patients in Spain: a nationwide study

Background: We performed a nationwide population-based retrospective study to describe the epidemiology of bacterial co-infections in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-hospitalized patients in Spain in 2020. We also analyzed the risk factors for co-infection, the etiology and the impact in the outcome. Methods: Data were obtained from records in the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) of the National Surveillance System for Hospital Data in Spain, provided by the Ministry of Health and annually published with 2 years lag. COVID-19 circulated in two waves in 2020: from its introduction to 31st June and from 1st July to 31st December. The risk of developing a healthcare-associated bacterial co-infection and the risk for in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in co-infected patients was assessed using an adjusted logistic regression model. Results: The incidence of bacterial co-infection in COVID-19 hospitalized patients was 2.3%. The main risk factors associated with bacterial co-infection were organ failure, obesity and male sex. Co-infection was associated with worse outcomes including higher in-hospital, in-ICU mortality and higher length of stay. Gram-negative bacteria caused most infections. Causative agents were similar between waves, although higher co-infections with Pseudomonas spp. were detected in the first wave and with Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae in the second. Conclusions: Co-infections are not as common as those found in other viral respiratory infections; therefore, antibiotics should be used carefully. Screening for actual co-infection to prescribe antibiotic therapy when required should be performed.This work was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (COV20/00491, PI18/01238, CIBERINFEC CB21/13/00051), Junta de Castilla y León (VA321P18, GRS 1922/A/19, GRS 2057/A/19), Consejería de Educación de Castilla y León (VA256P20) and Fundación Ramón Areces (CIVP19A5953). L. Sánchez-de Prada received a Río Hortega grant (CM20/00138) from Instituto Carlos III (Co-funded by European Regional Development Fund/European Social Fund ‘A way to make Europe’/’Investing in your future’).S